St. Croix, USVI

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St. Croix
9:30 pm, Sep 21, 2025
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Hurricane Gabrielle Forecast Advisory Number 19

Virgin Islands News

Issued at 2100 UTC SUN SEP 21 2025

403 
WTNT22 KNHC 212047
TCMAT2
 
HURRICANE GABRIELLE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER  19
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL072025
2100 UTC SUN SEP 21 2025
 
HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 28.5N  61.7W AT 21/2100Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN  20 NM
 
PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST OR 330 DEGREES AT   9 KT
 
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE  992 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS  65 KT WITH GUSTS TO  80 KT.
64 KT....... 20NE   0SE   0SW   0NW.
50 KT....... 50NE  40SE  30SW  30NW.
34 KT.......130NE 150SE  50SW  60NW.
4 M SEAS....180NE 150SE  75SW 135NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT.  RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.
 
REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 28.5N  61.7W AT 21/2100Z
AT 21/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 28.1N  61.5W
 
FORECAST VALID 22/0600Z 29.7N  62.2W
MAX WIND  80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT.
64 KT... 25NE  15SE   0SW  10NW.
50 KT... 50NE  40SE  30SW  30NW.
34 KT...120NE 130SE  50SW  70NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 22/1800Z 31.2N  62.0W
MAX WIND  95 KT...GUSTS 115 KT.
64 KT... 25NE  20SE  15SW  15NW.
50 KT... 50NE  50SE  30SW  30NW.
34 KT...110NE 120SE  60SW  70NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 23/0600Z 32.7N  60.6W
MAX WIND 100 KT...GUSTS 120 KT.
64 KT... 25NE  25SE  15SW  20NW.
50 KT... 45NE  45SE  30SW  35NW.
34 KT...100NE 100SE  60SW  80NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 23/1800Z 34.2N  57.7W
MAX WIND  90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT.
64 KT... 25NE  30SE  15SW  20NW.
50 KT... 50NE  55SE  35SW  35NW.
34 KT...100NE 120SE  80SW  70NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 24/0600Z 35.2N  53.4W
MAX WIND  80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT.
64 KT... 25NE  30SE  15SW  10NW.
50 KT... 45NE  60SE  40SW  30NW.
34 KT... 90NE 120SE  90SW  60NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 24/1800Z 35.8N  47.6W
MAX WIND  70 KT...GUSTS  85 KT.
64 KT... 15NE  25SE  20SW   0NW.
50 KT... 40NE  60SE  50SW  30NW.
34 KT... 90NE 130SE 110SW  70NW.
 
EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 125 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY
 
OUTLOOK VALID 25/1800Z 37.5N  36.0W
MAX WIND  60 KT...GUSTS  75 KT.
50 KT... 40NE  60SE  40SW  30NW.
34 KT... 90NE 150SE 140SW  70NW.
 
OUTLOOK VALID 26/1800Z 41.5N  25.1W
MAX WIND  55 KT...GUSTS  65 KT.
50 KT... 50NE  60SE  40SW   0NW.
34 KT...120NE 140SE 110SW  80NW.
 
REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 28.5N  61.7W
 
NEXT ADVISORY AT 22/0300Z
 
$$
FORECASTER PAPIN

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East End Marine Park Draws Crowd for Stories Under the Stars

The south shore of St. Croix became a stage for stories about Anansi, the trickster spider of African and Caribbean and folklore, the djembe and other tales during “Astronomy by the Sea” Saturday night at the East End Marine Park.
The free event was hosted by the Friends of the St. Croix East End Marine Park and the Planning and Natural Resources Department’s Coastal Zone Management Division. Starting at 7 p.m., storyteller and artist Kemit Sweeney captivated dozens of audience members under the stars at Estate Great Pond Park. Organizer Lindsay Metz, environmental outreach coordinator for the park, said the returning event was about bringing the St. Croix community out to connect with nature — and each other.
“It’s just another way to get people outside — to get people aware that there is 17 miles of protected coastline on St. Croix that’s a marine protected area. And just knowing that can even help protect it,” she said. “And that’s great for the rest of the island, because we’re protecting the seagrass where the baby fish grow up, and then that spillover effect is going to make the whole fishing industry better for the whole rest of the island — which is part of our tourism too, with scuba diving.”
https://youtu.be/DD0LAISyn98
Sweeney said he learned storytelling from his mother, culture-bearer Donna “Asheba” Samuel, and he asked audience members to pass the stories he told Saturday on to younger generations. It’s important, he said, “because there are certain key experiences in life that you can’t be taught.”
“You have to go through the experience yourself,” he said. “But the best way to do that, to guide someone through these experiences, is to tell them a story — wrap up the lesson in a story, so that they have to figure it out themselves, so they have to come into the knowing on their own. And in that way, you give them the confidence so that they can grow on their own.”
Metz said the East End Marine Park has several upcoming events, including a Trunk-or-Treat at the park on Oct. 25.
“We’re going to have a whole lot of different events to bring the community out, and we’ll have this whole outdoor area decorated,” she said.

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Virgin Islands News

NHC Tracks Gabrielle and Two Waves; Midweek Weather Threat for USVI, Puerto Rico

The National Hurricane Center is tracking three tropical systems in the Atlantic, including Hurricane Gabrielle near Bermuda and two tropical waves closer to the Caribbean. The National Weather Service in San Juan warns that the disturbances could bring increased showers to the U.S. Virgin Islands and Puerto Rico in the coming days.

Gabrielle and Additional Tropical Waves Monitored by NHC

As of a 5 p.m. update from the NHC Sunday, Gabrielle had strengthened into a hurricane located about 320 miles southeast of Bermuda, with maximum sustained winds near 75 mph. Hurricane Gabrielle is the seventh named storm of the Atlantic season and the second to reach hurricane strength following Hurricane Erin in August. Gabrielle is forecast to pass east of Bermuda on Monday.

“At 5:00 p.m. AST, the center of Hurricane Gabrielle was located by NOAA hurricane hunter aircraft near latitude 28.5 North, longitude 61.7 West. Gabrielle is now moving toward the north-northwest near 10 mph,” the NHC said. “A turn more northward is forecast on Monday, followed by a somewhat faster northeastward or east-northeastward motion on Tuesday. On the forecast track, the center of Gabrielle is expected to pass east of Bermuda on Monday evening,” according to the NHC report.

In addition to monitoring Hurricane Gabrielle, the NHC is tracking two tropical waves in the Atlantic Ocean, both of which could enhance rainfall and thunderstorms across the Virgin Islands and Puerto Rico.

Disturbance #1, located in the central Atlantic, has been monitored by the NHC for several days. The system carries a low chance of development within 48 hours and a medium chance of intensification over the next week, with the potential to strengthen into a tropical depression. As of Sunday, forecast models suggest it should pass northeast of the islands, though moisture associated with the wave could still bring increased precipitation.

Disturbance #2, flagged by the NHC Sunday afternoon and located closer to the islands, also carries a low chance of development over the next 48 hours and the next seven days. The system is expected to pass across the Leeward Islands before Disturbance #1 and could bring rainfall and gusty winds to the Virgin Islands and Puerto Rico during the early to middle part of this week.

“A tropical wave located more than 500 miles east of the Lesser Antilles is producing scattered disorganized showers and thunderstorms,” the NHC said on Sunday evening. “Environmental conditions appear marginally conducive for slow development over the next several days as the wave moves quickly westward to west-northwestward at 15 to 20 mph. Regardless of development, gusty winds and showers are expected for portions of the Leeward Islands Monday night and Tuesday.”

Local National Weather Service Update

The National Weather Service in San Juan, Puerto Rico, has warned that the U.S. Virgin Islands and Puerto Rico will face an increased risk of rainfall, thunderstorms, and localized flooding throughout the week due to the two tropical waves being monitored by the NHC.

On Sunday afternoon, the Source contacted Glorianne M. Rivera-Santiago, a meteorologist at the NWS, for further details regarding the local forecast.

Rivera-Santiago explained that as Disturbance #2 moves across the islands by Monday or Tuesday, at least two to three inches of rainfall are expected, accompanied by gusty winds and the potential for localized flooding. She noted that more details will become available as the system nears, adding that it could intensify further once it passes the U.S. Virgin Islands and Puerto Rico.

“On Tuesday, a strong tropical wave, located near 50W longitude, will bring an increase in shower and thunderstorm activity across the region. This tropical wave currently has a low chance of development into a tropical system. However, squally weather and periods of heavy rainfall will increase with the wave passage,” the NWS warned.

After Disturbance #2, the other tropical wave being watched by the NHC, Disturbance #1, will continue to bring inclement weather to the region through the week.

“Given the prevailing wet pattern on previous days and the already saturated soils, the main threats include flash flooding, rapid river rises, and landslides in vulnerable terrain,” the NWS said.

Rivera-Santiago noted that Saharan dust will be prevalent in the atmosphere on Monday, causing a hazy sky. She also reminded residents across both U.S. territories that a risk of hot temperatures will persist through the week, and heat alerts may be issued across the region.

Finally, beachgoers are urged to exercise caution due to a fading northeasterly swell and a moderate risk of rip currents, especially across north- and eastern-facing coastlines.

Weather Updates

It is crucial to remember that the forecast can change very quickly. USVI residents and visitors are encouraged to continue to remain prepared. Weather information is available from the NWS, the NHC, and NOAA.

The local weather forecast for the U.S. Virgin Islands is regularly updated on the Source Weather Page and VI Source YouTube Channel.

Additionally, a weekly Tropical Outlook article from the Source is also published throughout hurricane season to provide in-depth updates. Residents and visitors can find more weather information from the Virgin Islands Territorial Emergency Management Agency.

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