Issued at 200 PM EDT Tue Aug 19 2025
000 WTNT35 KNHC 191737 TCPAT5 BULLETIN Hurricane Erin Intermediate Advisory Number 33A NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL052025 200 PM EDT Tue Aug 19 2025 ...LARGE HURRICANE ERIN NOW MOVING NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD... ...LIFE-THREATENING RIP CURRENTS EXPECTED ALONG U.S. EAST COAST BEACHES... SUMMARY OF 200 PM EDT...1800 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...26.1N 72.5W ABOUT 630 MI...1015 KM SW OF BERMUDA ABOUT 655 MI...1050 KM SSE OF CAPE HATTERAS NORTH CAROLINA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...105 MPH...165 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNW OR 330 DEGREES AT 10 MPH...17 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...958 MB...28.29 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: The government of the Bahamas has discontinued the Tropical Storm Warning for the Turks and Caicos Islands and for the Southeast Bahamas, and has discontinued the Tropical Storm Watch for the Central Bahamas. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Storm Surge Warning is in effect for... * Cape Lookout to Duck, North Carolina A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * Beaufort Inlet to Duck, North Carolina A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for... * North of Duck, North Carolina to Cape Charles Light, Virginia A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area within the next 36 hours. A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours. A Storm Surge Warning means there is a danger of life-threatening inundation, from rising water moving inland from the coastline, during the next 36 hours in the indicated locations. For a depiction of areas at risk, please see the National Weather Service Storm Surge Watch/Warning Graphic, available at hurricanes.gov. This is a life-threatening situation. Persons located within these areas should take all necessary actions to protect life and property from rising water and the potential for other dangerous conditions. Promptly follow evacuation and other instructions from local officials. Interests in Bermuda, the U.S Mid-Atlantic coast, and the southern New England coast should monitor the progress of Erin. For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 200 PM EDT (1800 UTC), the center of Hurricane Erin was located near latitude 26.1 North, longitude 72.5 West. Erin is moving toward the north-northwest near 10 mph (17 km/h). This motion with an increase in forward speed is expected through tonight followed by a northward motion on Wednesday and then a northeastward motion on Thursday. On the forecast track, the center of Erin will pass to the east of the Bahamas today and tonight, and then move over the western Atlantic between the U.S. east coast and Bermuda on Wednesday and Thursday. Maximum sustained winds are near 105 mph (165 km/h) with higher gusts. Fluctuations in strength are possible over the next few days. Erin is a large hurricane. Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 80 miles (130 km) from the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 230 miles (370 km). The minimum central pressure estimated from Air Force Hurricane Hunter observations is 958 mb (28.29 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- Key messages for Erin can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT5 and WMO header WTNT45 KNHC. RAINFALL: Outer bands of Erin will produce localized areas of heavy rainfall across portions of the Turks and Caicos today and through tonight for the Bahamas. Additional rainfall of 1 to 3 inches, with storm total amounts to 8 inches, are possible, which could lead to flash and urban flooding. Heavy rainfall is possible on the Outer Banks of North Carolina Wednesday night into Thursday with potential for 1 to 2 inches and a local maximum of 4 inches. For a complete depiction of forecast rainfall and flash flooding associated with Erin, please see the National Weather Service Storm Total Rainfall Graphic, available at hurricanes.gov/graphics_at5.shtml?rainqpf WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected over portions of the North Carolina Outer Banks beginning late Wednesday or Wednesday night. Tropical storm conditions are possible in the watch area north of Duck, North Carolina to Cape Charles Light beginning Thursday. SURF: Swells generated by Erin will affect the Bahamas, Bermuda, the east coast of the United States, and Atlantic Canada during the next several days. These rough ocean conditions are expected to cause life-threatening surf and rip currents. Please consult products from your local weather forecast office for more information. A depiction of rip current risk for the United States can be found at: hurricanes.gov/graphics_at5.shtml?ripCurrents STORM SURGE: The combination of a dangerous storm surge and the tide will cause normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by rising waters moving inland from the shoreline. The water could reach the following heights above ground somewhere in the indicated areas if the peak surge occurs at the time of high tide... Cape Lookout to Duck, North Carolina...2 to 4 ft The deepest water will occur along the immediate coast where the surge will be accompanied by large and dangerous waves. Surge-related flooding depends on the relative timing of the surge and the tidal cycle, and can vary greatly over short distances. For information specific to your area, please see products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast office. For a complete depiction of areas at risk of storm surge inundation, please see the National Weather Service Peak Storm Surge Graphic, available at hurricanes.gov/graphics_at5.shtml?peakSurge. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 500 PM EDT. $$ Forecaster Pasch
NHC Atlantic
