Issued at 1100 PM AST Thu Aug 21 2025
000 WTNT45 KNHC 220233 TCDAT5 Hurricane Erin Discussion Number 43 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL052025 1100 PM AST Thu Aug 21 2025 Erin has changed little in organization during the past several hours. An area of convection seen near the center in conventional satellite imagery is associated with a fragment of an inner eyewall seen in microwave imagery, and outer convective bands continue in association with the outer wind maximum seen in scatterometer data. Satellite intensity estimates are in the 75-85 kt range and have not changed much since the last advisory, and based on this the initial intensity remains 85 kt. Erin continues to have a very large area of tropical-storm force winds, and comparing Erin with other systems around the same intensity and in similar locations over the past couple of decades indicates that it is around the 90th percentile in size. The cyclone also continues to produce a very large area of high seas covering nearly the entire western Atlantic from the Bahamas to Atlantic Canada. The hurricane is now moving east-northeastward or 065/19 kt. A faster motion toward the east-northeast is expected within the mid-latitude westerlies over the next 2-3 days, taking Erin out to sea over the north Atlantic. Some decrease in forward speed is expected by 120 h. The track models are tightly clustered, and the new forecast track has only minor adjustments from the previous track. Erin is moving into an area of increasing shear and toward cooler sea surface temperatures, and the cyclone is expected to merge with a front and become extratropical in about 36 h. However, global models forecast that the cyclone will only gradually weaken as it moves across the north Atlantic. The new intensity forecast is similar to the previous forecast and is based mainly on a blend of the GFS and ECMWF surface winds forecasts. KEY MESSAGES: 1. Erin will continue to produce life-threatening surf and rip currents along the beaches of the Bahamas, much of the east coast of the U.S., Bermuda, and Atlantic Canada during the next several days. Beachgoers in those areas should follow advice from lifeguards, local authorities, and beach warning flags. 2. Storm surge flooding should subside on the North Carolina Outer Banks tonight. While this happens, the storm surge will continue to be accompanied by large waves, leading to significant beach erosion and overwash, making some roads impassible. 3. Wind gusts to tropical storm force are likely along portions of the U.S. Mid-Atlantic and southern New England coasts through early Friday. 4. Tropical storm conditions are expected on Bermuda through early Friday. Gusts to gale force are possible along the coast of Nova Scotia on Friday and the Avalon Peninsula of Newfoundland on Saturday. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 22/0300Z 37.3N 67.0W 85 KT 100 MPH 12H 22/1200Z 38.8N 63.6W 80 KT 90 MPH 24H 23/0000Z 40.7N 58.2W 80 KT 90 MPH 36H 23/1200Z 43.0N 51.1W 75 KT 85 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 48H 24/0000Z 46.1N 42.5W 70 KT 80 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 60H 24/1200Z 49.3N 34.7W 65 KT 75 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 72H 25/0000Z 52.1N 28.1W 65 KT 75 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 96H 26/0000Z 56.6N 21.6W 50 KT 60 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 120H 27/0000Z 57.5N 20.0W 45 KT 50 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP $$ Forecaster Beven
NHC Atlantic
