Hurricane Erin Forecast Discussion Number 37

August 20, 2025
radmin

Issued at 1100 AM EDT Wed Aug 20 2025

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WTNT45 KNHC 201514 CCA
TCDAT5
 
Hurricane Erin Discussion Number  37...Corrected
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL052025
1100 AM EDT Wed Aug 20 2025

Corrected eye dropsonde wind to 19 kt and minimum pressure to 941 mb

Observations from an Air Force Hurricane Hunter aircraft indicate 
that the hurricane has strengthened with peak 700 mb flight-level 
winds of 115 kt well to the east of the center.  Using a reduction 
factor somewhat greater than that which would be used for eyewall 
winds, the intensity is set at 95 kt for this advisory.  A dropsonde 
in the eye measured a surface pressure of 943 mb with 19 kt winds 
so the minimum central pressure has fallen to an estimated 941 mb.  
The hurricane has become better organized on satellite images this 
morning with a symmetric-looking cloud pattern and numerous banding 
features.  The eye has again become evident on the imagery and 
upper-level outflow is well-defined over all quadrants.
  
Erin's is now moving northward with an initial motion estimate of 
350/11 kt.  There has been no significant change in the track 
forecast guidance since the last advisory package.  Over the 
next couple of days, Erin should move northward along the western 
periphery of a 500 mb high, and then turn northeastward as it 
rounds the northwestern side of the high.  Then, the system should 
accelerate northeastward to east-northeastward while moving within 
the southern belt of the the mid-latitude westerlies.  The official 
track forecast is close to the previous one and in good agreement 
with the various dynamical model consensus predictions.
 
Erin still has a rather broad inner core but the eyewall appears to 
be reforming.  The system is over warm waters and within a moist 
low- to mid-level air mass.  Although the vertical wind shear is 
currently light, the SHIPS model predicts a significant increase in 
shear in 12-24 hours.  Therefore the hurricane has the potential to 
strengthen some more in the short term, particularly if the inner 
core becomes even better defined. By 36 hours and beyond, westerly 
shear is predicted to become prohibitively high, so a weakening 
trend is likely to commence later on Thursday.  Simulated satellite 
imagery from the global models suggest that Erin will become an 
extratropical cyclone in 96 hours or sooner.   
 
It should be noted that the 34- and 50-kt wind speed probabilities
in the text and graphical products are likely underestimating the
risk of those winds occurring.  This is because the forecast wind
field of Erin is considerably larger than average compared to the
wind field used to derive the wind speed probability product.
 
 
KEY MESSAGES:
 
1. Erin is expected to produce life-threatening surf and rip 
currents along the beaches of the Bahamas, much of the east coast of 
the U.S., Bermuda, and Atlantic Canada during the next several days. 
Beachgoers in those areas should follow advice from lifeguards, 
local authorities, and beach warning flags.
 
2. Storm surge flooding and tropical storm conditions are expected 
in the North Carolina Outer Banks beginning later today. The 
storm surge will be accompanied by large waves, leading to 
significant beach erosion and overwash, making some roads 
impassible.  

3. Tropical storm conditions are expected on Thursday along the 
Virginia coast. Wind gusts to tropical storm force are likely along 
portions of the remainder of the U.S. Mid-Atlantic and southern New 
England coasts Thursday through early Friday. 
 
4. Tropical storm conditions are possible on Bermuda on Thursday and 
Friday.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INIT  20/1500Z 30.1N  73.7W   95 KT 110 MPH
 12H  21/0000Z 32.0N  73.6W  105 KT 120 MPH
 24H  21/1200Z 34.4N  72.2W  105 KT 120 MPH
 36H  22/0000Z 36.6N  69.4W  100 KT 115 MPH
 48H  22/1200Z 38.6N  65.5W   90 KT 105 MPH
 60H  23/0000Z 40.4N  60.5W   80 KT  90 MPH
 72H  23/1200Z 42.5N  54.3W   65 KT  75 MPH
 96H  24/1200Z 47.4N  40.0W   55 KT  65 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
120H  25/1200Z 52.5N  27.4W   50 KT  60 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
 
$$
Forecaster Pasch

NHC Atlantic

Virgin Islands News - News.VI

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Feds Ask for ‘Significant Term of Incarceration’ for Darin Richardson After Woodpile Case Conviction

The U.S. Attorneys’ Office asked a federal judge last week to sentence Darin Richardson to a term of incarceration longer than the 21-27 months recommended by sentencing guidelines.
“This range, while instructive, does not prohibit the Court from imposing a higher sentence — particularly given the defendant’s conviction on an additional territorial offense that carries a statutory maximum of five years’ imprisonment,” prosecutors wrote in a sentencing memorandum filed in U.S. District Court last week.
A jury in March found Richardson guilty of criminal conflict of interest, making material false statements to a federal agent, bank fraud, making a false statement on a loan and credit application and money laundering. The verdict came after a nearly two-week trial during which prosecutors argued that Richardson received a $107,000 kickback for improperly awarding a warehousing contract to manage lumber earmarked for disaster recovery projects — and that he later lied on a home construction loan application.
“The federal fraud and false statement convictions are intertwined with a territorial conflict-of-interest conviction, a charge grounded in local law and rooted in his abuse of executive authority for personal financial gain,” the government wrote. “That local offense, by statute, carries a maximum penalty of five years’ imprisonment, reflecting the Legislature’s understanding that public corruption poses a serious threat to the integrity of government institutions.”
Richardson was arrested last June alongside contractor Davidson Charlemagne, former maintenance director for the V.I. Education Department, and Sasha Charlemagne, who together ran the company that received the contract. The Charlemagnes have not yet gone to trial. Richardson’s sentencing hearing was originally scheduled for July, but it was delayed multiple times due to scheduling conflicts and so that Richardson’s attorney, Darren John-Baptiste, could represent business owner Benjamin Hendricks in a separate fraud trial involving public officials and federal funds on St. Thomas.
John-Baptiste argued for a sentence of probation in a sentencing memorandum filed by the defense in early July. In last week’s filing, the government argued against leniency given Richardson’s role as chief executive of a semiautonomous government agency at the time he committed some of the offenses.
Richardson, they wrote, “is not a man without opportunity, education or professional success. He served nearly a decade as the COO of the VIHFA, an agency entrusted with managing critical housing initiatives and administering substantial federal funds. He occupied the second-highest-ranking position in the agency, supervised various departments, and held decision-making authority over contracts and personnel. He was not a low–level employee who misunderstood his role — he was the individual others looked to for guidance on policy, compliance and integrity.”
Prosecutors argued that the sentence “will speak beyond this courtroom.”
“It will speak to government employees across the Virgin Islands who may be tempted to cut ethical corners,” they wrote. “It will speak to the public, who are watching closely and waiting to see whether justice will be done.”

Burglary Suspect Arrested During Execution of Search Warrant

Police arrested 23-year-old Charlie Camacho early Wednesday on outstanding charges of burglary, unauthorized use of a vehicle, and grand larceny, according to the Virgin Islands Police Department.
Members of the Criminal Investigation Bureau and Special Operations Bureau were executing a search warrant in an unrelated case around 4:30 a.m. when they encountered Camacho inside the home, according to the police report.
Camacho was taken into custody on a warrant issued by the Superior Court, the police report stated.
His bail was set at $25,000. He was booked, processed, and remanded to the John Bell Adult Correctional Facility, pending his advice of rights Hearing scheduled for Thursday, in Superior Court, the department said.

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