Issued at 1100 AM EDT Wed Aug 20 2025
000 WTNT45 KNHC 201457 TCDAT5 Hurricane Erin Discussion Number 37 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL052025 1100 AM EDT Wed Aug 20 2025 Observations from an Air Force Hurricane Hunter aircraft indicate that the hurricane has strengthened with peak 700 mb flight-level winds of 115 kt well to the east of the center. Using a reduction factor somewhat greater than that which would be used for eyewall winds, the intensity is set at 95 kt for this advisory. A dropsonde in the eye measured a surface pressure of 943 mb with 9 kt winds so the minimum central pressure has fallen to an estimated 942 mb. The hurricane has become better organized on satellite images this morning with a symmetric-looking cloud pattern and numerous banding features. The eye has again become evident on the imagery and upper-level outflow is well-defined over all quadrants. Erin's is now moving northward with an initial motion estimate of 350/11 kt. There has been no significant change in the track forecast guidance since the last advisory package. Over the next couple of days, Erin should move northward along the western periphery of a 500 mb high, and then turn northeastward as it rounds the northwestern side of the high. Then, the system should accelerate northeastward to east-northeastward while moving within the southern belt of the the mid-latitude westerlies. The official track forecast is close to the previous one and in good agreement with the various dynamical model consensus predictions. Erin still has a rather broad inner core but the eyewall appears to be reforming. The system is over warm waters and within a moist low- to mid-level air mass. Although the vertical wind shear is currently light, the SHIPS model predicts a significant increase in shear in 12-24 hours. Therefore the hurricane has the potential to strengthen some more in the short term, particularly if the inner core becomes even better defined. By 36 hours and beyond, westerly shear is predicted to become prohibitively high, so a weakening trend is likely to commence later on Thursday. Simulated satellite imagery from the global models suggest that Erin will become an extratropical cyclone in 96 hours or sooner. It should be noted that the 34- and 50-kt wind speed probabilities in the text and graphical products are likely underestimating the risk of those winds occurring. This is because the forecast wind field of Erin is considerably larger than average compared to the wind field used to derive the wind speed probability product. KEY MESSAGES: 1. Erin is expected to produce life-threatening surf and rip currents along the beaches of the Bahamas, much of the east coast of the U.S., Bermuda, and Atlantic Canada during the next several days. Beachgoers in those areas should follow advice from lifeguards, local authorities, and beach warning flags. 2. Storm surge flooding and tropical storm conditions are expected in the North Carolina Outer Banks beginning later today. The storm surge will be accompanied by large waves, leading to significant beach erosion and overwash, making some roads impassible. 3. Tropical storm conditions are expected on Thursday along the Virginia coast. Wind gusts to tropical storm force are likely along portions of the remainder of the U.S. Mid-Atlantic and southern New England coasts Thursday through early Friday. 4. Tropical storm conditions are possible on Bermuda on Thursday and Friday. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 20/1500Z 30.1N 73.7W 95 KT 110 MPH 12H 21/0000Z 32.0N 73.6W 105 KT 120 MPH 24H 21/1200Z 34.4N 72.2W 105 KT 120 MPH 36H 22/0000Z 36.6N 69.4W 100 KT 115 MPH 48H 22/1200Z 38.6N 65.5W 90 KT 105 MPH 60H 23/0000Z 40.4N 60.5W 80 KT 90 MPH 72H 23/1200Z 42.5N 54.3W 65 KT 75 MPH 96H 24/1200Z 47.4N 40.0W 55 KT 65 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 120H 25/1200Z 52.5N 27.4W 50 KT 60 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP $$ Forecaster Pasch
NHC Atlantic