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Hurricane Erin Forecast Discussion Number 37

Virgin Islands News

Issued at 1100 AM EDT Wed Aug 20 2025

000
WTNT45 KNHC 201457
TCDAT5
 
Hurricane Erin Discussion Number  37
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL052025
1100 AM EDT Wed Aug 20 2025

Observations from an Air Force Hurricane Hunter aircraft indicate 
that the hurricane has strengthened with peak 700 mb flight-level 
winds of 115 kt well to the east of the center.  Using a reduction 
factor somewhat greater than that which would be used for eyewall 
winds, the intensity is set at 95 kt for this advisory.  A dropsonde 
in the eye measured a surface pressure of 943 mb with 9 kt winds so 
the minimum central pressure has fallen to an estimated 942 mb.  The 
hurricane has become better organized on satellite images this 
morning with a symmetric-looking cloud pattern and numerous banding 
features.  The eye has again become evident on the imagery and 
upper-level outflow is well-defined over all quadrants.
  
Erin's is now moving northward with an initial motion estimate of 
350/11 kt.  There has been no significant change in the track 
forecast guidance since the last advisory package.  Over the 
next couple of days, Erin should move northward along the western 
periphery of a 500 mb high, and then turn northeastward as it 
rounds the northwestern side of the high.  Then, the system should 
accelerate northeastward to east-northeastward while moving within 
the southern belt of the the mid-latitude westerlies.  The official 
track forecast is close to the previous one and in good agreement 
with the various dynamical model consensus predictions.
 
Erin still has a rather broad inner core but the eyewall appears to 
be reforming.  The system is over warm waters and within a moist 
low- to mid-level air mass.  Although the vertical wind shear is 
currently light, the SHIPS model predicts a significant increase in 
shear in 12-24 hours.  Therefore the hurricane has the potential to 
strengthen some more in the short term, particularly if the inner 
core becomes even better defined. By 36 hours and beyond, westerly 
shear is predicted to become prohibitively high, so a weakening 
trend is likely to commence later on Thursday.  Simulated satellite 
imagery from the global models suggest that Erin will become an 
extratropical cyclone in 96 hours or sooner.   
 
It should be noted that the 34- and 50-kt wind speed probabilities
in the text and graphical products are likely underestimating the
risk of those winds occurring.  This is because the forecast wind
field of Erin is considerably larger than average compared to the
wind field used to derive the wind speed probability product.
 
 
KEY MESSAGES:
 
1. Erin is expected to produce life-threatening surf and rip 
currents along the beaches of the Bahamas, much of the east coast of 
the U.S., Bermuda, and Atlantic Canada during the next several days. 
Beachgoers in those areas should follow advice from lifeguards, 
local authorities, and beach warning flags.
 
2. Storm surge flooding and tropical storm conditions are expected 
in the North Carolina Outer Banks beginning later today. The 
storm surge will be accompanied by large waves, leading to 
significant beach erosion and overwash, making some roads 
impassible.  

3. Tropical storm conditions are expected on Thursday along the 
Virginia coast. Wind gusts to tropical storm force are likely along 
portions of the remainder of the U.S. Mid-Atlantic and southern New 
England coasts Thursday through early Friday. 
 
4. Tropical storm conditions are possible on Bermuda on Thursday and 
Friday.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INIT  20/1500Z 30.1N  73.7W   95 KT 110 MPH
 12H  21/0000Z 32.0N  73.6W  105 KT 120 MPH
 24H  21/1200Z 34.4N  72.2W  105 KT 120 MPH
 36H  22/0000Z 36.6N  69.4W  100 KT 115 MPH
 48H  22/1200Z 38.6N  65.5W   90 KT 105 MPH
 60H  23/0000Z 40.4N  60.5W   80 KT  90 MPH
 72H  23/1200Z 42.5N  54.3W   65 KT  75 MPH
 96H  24/1200Z 47.4N  40.0W   55 KT  65 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
120H  25/1200Z 52.5N  27.4W   50 KT  60 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
 
$$
Forecaster Pasch

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