Issued at 500 PM EDT Tue Aug 19 2025
000 WTNT45 KNHC 192039 TCDAT5 Hurricane Erin Discussion Number 34 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL052025 500 PM EDT Tue Aug 19 2025 After becoming somewhat disrupted earlier today, Erin's cloud pattern has become better organized with increasing coverage and intensity of central convection. The upper-tropospheric outflow is becoming better defined over the northern portion of the circulation, indicating some decrease in vertical wind shear. The advisory intensity remains at 90 kt which is about the maximum of the various satellite-based subjective and objective estimates. Another Air Force Hurricane Hunter mission is scheduled for a few hours from now to provide a good estimate of Erin's intensity. Based on center fixes from the Hurricane Hunters and satellite images, Erin turned to a north-northwestward heading a few hours ago and the initial motion estimate is now around 330/9 kt. The system is situated in a weakness in the subtropical ridge, and should turn northward along the western side of a mid-level high centered southeast of Bermuda Wednesday. Erin should turn toward the northeast as it rounds the northwestern side of the high, and accelerate northeastward to east-northeastward in the southern part of the mid-latitude westerlies over the north Atlantic. Little changes were made to the track forecast from the previous advisory, and the official forecast remains close to the model consensus. Since the shear over Erin appears to have lessened, and the system will continue to traverse warm waters for the next couple of days, some re-strengthening could occur. The future intensity is dependent on whether the inner-core eyewall structure becomes re-established. The official forecast conservatively shows a slight increase in intensity similar to the model consensus but the LGEM guidance shows a little more strengthening than that. Later in the forecast period, Erin should gradually weaken over the cooler waters of the north Atlantic and lose its tropical characteristics in 4-5 days. It should be noted that the 34- and 50-kt wind speed probabilities beyond 36 hours in the text and graphical products are likely underestimating the risk of those winds occurring. This is because the forecast wind field of Erin is considerably larger than average compared to the wind field used to derive the wind speed probability product. KEY MESSAGES: 1. Erin is expected to produce life-threatening surf and rip currents along the beaches of the Bahamas, much of the east coast of the U.S., Bermuda, and Atlantic Canada during the next several days. Beachgoers in those areas should follow advice from lifeguards, local authorities, and beach warning flags. 2. Storm surge flooding and tropical storm conditions are expected in the North Carolina Outer Banks beginning late Wednesday or Wednesday night, where Tropical Storm and Storm Surge Warnings are in effect. The storm surge will be accompanied by large waves, leading to significant beach erosion and overwash, making some roads impassible. 3. Tropical storm conditions are possible in Bermuda on Thursday and Friday where a Tropical Storm Watch is now in effect. 4. Interests along the U.S. Mid-Atlantic and southern New England coasts should also monitor the progress of Erin as strong winds are possible Thursday and Friday. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 19/2100Z 26.6N 72.7W 90 KT 105 MPH 12H 20/0600Z 28.1N 73.4W 90 KT 105 MPH 24H 20/1800Z 30.3N 73.8W 95 KT 110 MPH 36H 21/0600Z 32.6N 73.1W 95 KT 110 MPH 48H 21/1800Z 34.9N 71.3W 95 KT 110 MPH 60H 22/0600Z 36.8N 68.3W 90 KT 105 MPH 72H 22/1800Z 38.4N 64.7W 85 KT 100 MPH 96H 23/1800Z 41.0N 56.0W 65 KT 75 MPH 120H 24/1800Z 43.0N 46.0W 50 KT 60 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP $$ Forecaster Pasch
NHC Atlantic
