Issued at 1100 AM EDT Tue Aug 19 2025
000 WTNT45 KNHC 191457 TCDAT5 Hurricane Erin Discussion Number 33 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL052025 1100 AM EDT Tue Aug 19 2025 Erin's cloud pattern continues to be disrupted by vertical wind shear, with the low-level center situated near the northwestern edge of the main area of deep convection. There are still well-defined convective banding features over the eastern semicircle of the system. Reports from an Air Force Hurricane Hunter aircraft indicate that the central pressure has risen compared to earlier this morning. The advisory intensity is set to 90 kt, comparable to a Dvorak Current Intensity number from TAFB. However, wind observations from the Hurricane Hunters suggest that this intensity estimate may be on the high side. The hurricane is moving a little faster to the northwest with an initial motion estimate of 325/8 kt. Erin is expected to turn northward around the western periphery of a subtropical anticyclone centered southeast of Bermuda. Later in the period, the system should turn to the northeast with some increase in forward speed as it moves into the mid-latitude westerlies. There are no significant adjustments to the previous NHC forecast track and the official forecast lies very close to the latest dynamical model consensus, TVCA. Predicting Erin's intensity is somewhat problematic. Given the current disorganization of the cloud pattern, one would be reluctant to call for restrengthening. However,the dynamical guidance shows increasingly anticyclonic upper-level flow over the system and the SHIPS model diagnoses a significant decrease in vertical wind shear. Therefore, the official forecast shows a bit of restrengthening in the next 36 hours. This is somewhat above the model consensus but below the latest statistical/dynamical LGEM guidance. The global models continue to show an increase in the size of the hurricane, with the tropical-storm-force wind radii crossing the North Carolina Outer Banks within the next couple of days. Accordingly, Tropical Storm and Storm Surge warnings have been issued for this area. It should be noted that the 34- and 50-kt wind speed probabilities beyond 36 hours in the text and graphical products are likely underestimating the risk of those winds occurring. This is because the forecast wind field of Erin is considerably larger than average compared to the wind field used to derive the wind speed probability product. KEY MESSAGES: 1. Erin is expected to produce life-threatening surf and rip currents along the beaches of the Bahamas, much of the east coast of the U.S., Bermuda, and Atlantic Canada during the next several days. Beachgoers in those areas should follow advice from lifeguards, local authorities, and beach warning flags. 2. Storm surge flooding and tropical storm conditions are expected in the North Carolina Outer Banks beginning late Wednesday or Wednesday night, where Tropical Storm and Storm Surge Warnings are now in effect. The storm surge will be accompanied by large waves, leading to significant beach erosion and overwash, making some roads impassible. 3. Heavy rainfall from the outer bands of Erin will continue today for the Turks and Caicos and through tonight for the Bahamas. Flash and urban flooding are possible. 4. Interests along the U.S. Mid-Atlantic and southern New England coasts and on Bermuda should also monitor the progress of Erin as strong winds are possible Thursday and Friday. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 19/1500Z 25.6N 72.4W 90 KT 105 MPH 12H 20/0000Z 27.0N 73.1W 90 KT 105 MPH 24H 20/1200Z 29.1N 73.9W 90 KT 105 MPH 36H 21/0000Z 31.4N 73.6W 95 KT 110 MPH 48H 21/1200Z 33.7N 72.4W 95 KT 110 MPH 60H 22/0000Z 35.6N 70.0W 90 KT 105 MPH 72H 22/1200Z 37.3N 66.6W 85 KT 100 MPH 96H 23/1200Z 40.3N 58.7W 65 KT 75 MPH 120H 24/1200Z 42.8N 50.0W 55 KT 65 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP $$ Forecaster Pasch
NHC Atlantic
