The National Hurricane Center is monitoring Invest 98L south of the U.S. Virgin Islands. While its path is uncertain, forecasters say conditions in the Caribbean may support development later this week, and a tropical depression is expected to form in the coming days.

National Hurricane Center: Invest 98L

As of Sunday afternoon, the NHC had assigned Invest 98L a low chance of development in the next 48 hours and a high chance of development in the next seven days. The tropical wave is expected to potentially strengthen into a tropical depression after it moves across the Windward Islands and into the Caribbean Sea.

An “invest” is an area under investigation by the NHC for possible development. If this system ultimately intensifies into a tropical storm with maximum sustained winds of at least 39 mph, it would be named “Melissa,” becoming the thirteenth named cyclone of the 2025 Atlantic hurricane season.

“Showers and thunderstorms have become slightly better organized since yesterday in association with a tropical wave located just west of the Windward Islands over the eastern Caribbean Sea,” according to an update on Sunday evening from the NHC. “However, surface observations indicate the disturbance still lacks a closed circulation. The system is moving quickly westward at 20 to 25 mph, which will likely limit its development over the next day or so. Thereafter, environmental conditions are forecast to become more favorable for development as the wave slows down over the central Caribbean Sea, and a tropical depression is likely to form during the middle to latter portion of this week.

“Regardless of development, heavy rainfall and gusty winds are expected to continue for portions of the Windward and Leeward Islands through Monday morning,” the NHC said.

Where Will Invest 98L Travel?

Once the disturbance moves farther into the Caribbean Sea, the forecast becomes more uncertain. While the core of the wave is expected to pass south of the USVI and Puerto Rico in the coming days, atmospheric conditions could still steer the system — or its associated moisture — northward toward the local islands later this week.

“The long-term period continues to highlight an increasingly unsettled and wet weather pattern across Puerto Rico and the U.S. Virgin Islands, associated with a deep surge of tropical moisture linked to Invest 98L, a tropical wave currently being monitored by the NHC,” according to an update on Sunday from the National Weather Service in San Juan, Puerto Rico.

Meteorologists with FoxWeather also highlighted the uncertainty of Invest 98L’s track and development in the coming days.

“One set of forecast predictions calls for the system to strengthen into Tropical Storm or even Hurricane Melissa and quickly move to the north or northeast toward the Dominican Republic, Puerto Rico and/or the nearby islands,” FoxWeather said in an article published on Sunday. “Another set of predictions keeps the system weaker and calls for it to flounder around in the Caribbean for days – maybe well into next week or beyond,” the article stated.

“As far ahead as we can reasonably forecast — about 10 days — there is no sign of a threat to the mainland U.S. mainland. However, residents of Puerto Rico and the surrounding islands should plan to stay informed this week until we see what happens midweek. If the system quickly develops, its move north could occur almost immediately,” the FoxWeather article noted.

“A strong dip in the jet stream is forecast to be over the East Coast of the U.S. on Wednesday and Thursday. If the system strengthens, the jet stream dip will have a chance to scoop up the likely tropical storm and pull it north. If development is slow, however, the scoop will pass by, and the system, whatever form it’s in, will likely loll around in the Caribbean for several days at least,” according to FoxWeather.

The NWS in San Juan echoed that outlook, noting that “Forecast confidence remains low, as the eventual track, intensity, and proximity of Invest 98L to the forecast area will dictate the magnitude and timing of local impacts. A more organized, slower-moving, or closer system could substantially increase rainfall totals and wind hazards, while a weaker, faster-moving, or more distant disturbance would limit these effects.”

While there is no immediate cyclone threat to the U.S. Virgin Islands or Puerto Rico, residents and visitors are urged to remain prepared and monitor official updates closely. At the very least, an increase in precipitation should be anticipated.

Local Weather Threats

Meanwhile, the U.S. Virgin Islands and Puerto Rico will continue to endure choppy seas due to a powerful long-period northerly swell currently affecting the region. Due to the expected hazardous conditions, several marine alerts are in effect for areas of both territories, including a High Rip Current Risk, a High Surf Advisory, a Coastal Flood Advisory, and a Small Craft Advisory.

“The north-facing beaches in Puerto Rico and the Atlantic coastline can expect dangerous breaking waves, which may create life-threatening rip currents and cause minor to moderate coastal flooding in vulnerable areas,” the NWS said. “The northern U.S. Virgin Islands can expect dangerous breaking waves and life-threatening rip currents, with life-threatening rip currents developing along St Croix’s north and east-facing beaches by Monday.

“Beachgoers and visitors are urged to exercise extreme caution, heed local advisories, and avoid swimming in high-risk areas, as life-threatening rip currents are expected to persist through early this week before gradually improving,” the NWS warned.

Finally, the NWS in San Juan reminded individuals on Sunday about weather-related threats that will continue to affect the USVI and Puerto Rico over the coming days, including the chance of rainfall and thunderstorms and warm temperatures, with the potential for heat alerts.

Stay Informed

It is important to remember that the forecast, including the tropical outlook, can change very quickly. The Atlantic hurricane season officially ends on Nov. 30, and USVI residents and visitors are encouraged to continue to remain prepared. Weather information is available from the NWS, the NHC, and NOAA.

The local weather forecast for the U.S. Virgin Islands is regularly updated on the Source Weather Page and VI Source YouTube Channel. A weekly Tropical Outlook article from the Source will continue to be published throughout the remainder of hurricane season to provide in-depth updates. Residents and visitors can find additional weather alerts and preparedness information from the Virgin Islands Territorial Emergency Management Agency.