The National Hurricane Center is monitoring Tropical Storm Melissa, which formed Tuesday in the Central Caribbean. Currently south of the U.S. Virgin Islands, the storm’s track remains uncertain, but Puerto Rico and the Virgin Islands could possibly experience some impacts, including rainfall.

Tropical Storm Melissa

As the Source reported Sunday, the NHC had been tracking Tropical Storm Melissa — previously designated Invest 98L — for several days before it was upgraded Tuesday morning. Melissa is the 13th named cyclone of the 2025 Atlantic season and as of Tuesday evening was located about 300 miles south of Port-au-Prince, Haiti, moving west with winds near 50 mph.

“At 8:00 p.m. AST, the center of Tropical Storm Melissa was located near latitude 14.2 North, longitude 73.4 West,” according to an update from the National Hurricane Center on Tuesday evening. Melissa is moving toward the west near 15 mph. A decrease in forward speed and a gradual turn to the northwest and north is expected during the next few days. On the forecast track, Melissa is expected to approach Jamaica and the southwestern portion of Haiti later this week.

Maximum sustained winds are near 50 mph with higher gusts. Gradual strengthening is expected during the next few days. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 140 miles from the center, and the estimated minimum central pressure is 1003 millibars.

Due to the system’s proximity to several of the islands in the Caribbean, tropical alerts have been issued for the following areas:

“A Hurricane Watch is in effect for the southwestern peninsula of Haiti from the border with the Dominican Republic to Port-au-Prince, and a Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for Jamaica,” the NHC said.

 Where Will Melissa Travel?

 According to the NHC, forecasters are relatively confident in the trajectory of Melissa in the short term as it moves westward. However, the track of the cyclone becomes much more unclear later this week, due to various atmospheric conditions that will determine the eventual path of the storm.

The NHC noted on Tuesday that Tropical Storm Melissa is expected to slow down and will likely curve northwest and then north over the next couple of days, passing close to Haiti and Jamaica by Thursday. After that, the forecast is more uncertain. Some models show Melissa turning northeast, while others keep it drifting west or stalling. Most forecasts suggest it will stay in the Caribbean through the weekend, and it is forecast to intensify into a hurricane.

On Tuesday morning, AccuWeather released information about Tropical Storm Melissa, noting that a large area of the Caribbean could experience some effects from the storm. AccuWeather warned that if the storm indeed stalls near islands in the western Caribbean, intense rainfall from the storm could cause serious impacts, including catastrophic flooding, particularly across Haiti, the Dominican Republic, Jamaica, Cuba, and portions of the Southern Bahamas.

“Steering breezes will sooner or later grab onto the storm in the Caribbean and pull Tropical Storm Melissa northward,” according to AccuWeather. “Areas from Hispaniola to Cuba and Jamaica are the initial population centers that would be first affected by the storm’s heavy rain, strong winds and building seas.”

“Even though Puerto Rico may be well east of the track of Melissa’s center, a plume of tropical moisture can still bring heavy rain and the risk of flash flooding and mudslides, which are the primary concerns for the Greater Antilles farther to the west. The islands in the northern Caribbean that will be affected the most by the storm will highly depend on when the storm begins its turn to the north,” the AccuWeather article continued.

The USVI and Puerto Rico have already received minor amounts of precipitation associated with Tropical Storm Melissa as of Tuesday morning, and this pattern is expected to continue over the next few days.

“Outer bands from Tropical Storm Melissa, located south of Hispaniola, will continue to affect portions of southern and western Puerto Rico, resulting in heavy rainfall and strong thunderstorms,” the National Weather Service in San Juan, Puerto Rico, said Tuesday. The NWS also shared the following statement regarding possible impacts across the region later this week.

“According to the official NHC forecast, Puerto Rico and the U.S. Virgin Islands most likely will receive between two and four inches of rainfall through the end of the workweek, primarily from Tropical Storm Melissa’s trailing moisture. However, if the system tracks farther west or away from the islands, rainfall totals and associated impacts would likely be reduced,” the NWS said.

“Uncertainty is still present in the forecast toward the end of the workweek due to different solutions of the final trajectory of Tropical Storm Melissa. Residents and mariners in Puerto Rico and the USVI should continue to monitor updates closely, as forecast adjustments are likely,” the NWS added.

Hurricane Expert Insight

The Source reached out to Alex DaSilva, AccuWeather’s lead hurricane expert, to learn more about potential tropical weather threats in the coming days.

“I don’t think we can completely discount the potential for some indirect impacts across the USVI and Puerto Rico,” DaSilva said. “In fact, AccuWeather is forecasting a couple of inches of rain for Puerto Rico, because as the storm moves toward Jamaica and Hispaniola, there will be some southerly winds related to Melissa that cause upslope rainfall over Puerto Rico.

“While Puerto Rico won’t be in the core circulation of Melissa, the island will still experience effects that are connected to the storm. For the U.S. Virgin Islands, you might see some rain, but overall, it should stay under an inch. I don’t expect this system to be very impactful for the USVI, and I don’t see a realistic scenario where the core of the storm shifts toward Puerto Rico or the Virgin Islands,” DaSilva stated.

DaSilva noted that he does not expect very strong winds associated with Tropical Storm Melissa to affect the USVI. Still, he emphasized that rainfall may occur, and it may be heavy at times. He also added that some gusty winds could occur if thunderstorms affect the local islands.

“It’s possible that some loosely related outer rainbands could reach the Virgin Islands, as the storm has already disrupted the normal trade wind pattern, creating some southerly flow that can bring in moisture. You could see a few locally heavy downpours, but the more significant rainbands will stay from Puerto Rico westward. As for winds, you won’t see any directly tied to the storm’s core, just some locally gusty winds that could occur with passing showers or thunderstorms.”

Finally, DaSilva said that once Tropical Storm Melissa moves through the Caribbean, he does not expect any additional development in the coming days. However, a late-season storm affecting the eastern Caribbean could theoretically develop, and individuals across the region should remain prepared.

“In the short term, once Melissa moves away, I don’t see anything else developing in the eastern Caribbean,” DaSilva confirmed. “The Atlantic looks likely to go quiet for a week or two after this storm because of widespread sinking air associated with high pressure that will limit development. As we move into the second and third weeks of November, though, conditions could become more favorable again, especially in the western Caribbean, where we often see late-season development tied to the Central American Gyre area of low pressure,” he stated.

“Climatology suggests that after this storm passes, the eastern Caribbean is likely done for the season, though we can’t completely rule out another tropical wave. Overall, this is probably the main system for the next couple of weeks, but we could still see one more storm, possibly even another hurricane, later in November, most likely in the western Caribbean,” DaSilva concluded.

NOAA Global Tropics Hazards Outlook

A Global Tropics Hazards Outlook was released Tuesday, Oct. 21, by NOAA’s Climate Prediction Center, and the forecast tool provides insight into potential activity across tropical basins up to three weeks in advance.

Tropical activity is not expected across either the Atlantic basin or the Eastern Pacific basin during the “Week Two” outlook period, which runs from Oct. 29 until Nov. 4, or during the “Week Three’ period, from Nov. 5 until Nov. 11.

It is important to remember that this forecast is not guaranteed, and development may still happen as the forecast can change quickly. Additionally, a recent Tropical Outlook from the Source noted that the emergence of a La Niña weather pattern could influence storm activity for the rest of the hurricane season, which ends on Nov. 30.

During a La Niña cycle, the ocean waters across the equatorial Pacific Ocean cool significantly, affecting global weather. During La Nina, wind shear— a change in wind direction and velocity with height in the atmosphere — also typically decreases in the Atlantic Ocean. A reduction in wind shear can favor cyclone development. This pattern is the opposite of El Niño, a warming of the equatorial Pacific, which usually increases wind shear in the Atlantic Ocean, helping to rip apart storms and prevent hurricane formation and intensification.

Local Weather and Staying Informed

Finally, the NWS in San Juan is reminding residents and visitors of ongoing weather-related threats across Puerto Rico and the U.S. Virgin Islands. Warm temperatures will continue to affect the region and may prompt additional heat alerts. Hazardous marine conditions with an elevated risk of rip currents are also expected as a northerly swell slowly subsides, while seas may remain choppy at times through the week due to thunderstorms and gusty winds associated with Tropical Storm Melissa that could reach the waters around the local islands. A Small Craft Advisory and a High Rip Current Risk will remain in effect for areas surrounding both U.S. territories until at least Wednesday.

USVI residents and visitors are encouraged to continue to remain prepared. Weather information is available from the NWS, the NHC, and NOAA.

The local weather forecast for the U.S. Virgin Islands is also regularly updated on the Source Weather Page and VI Source YouTube Channel. Additionally, A weekly Tropical Outlook article from the Source will be published throughout hurricane season to provide in-depth updates.

Residents and visitors can find additional weather alerts and preparedness information from the Virgin Islands Territorial Emergency Management Agency.