A tropical wave moving through the eastern Caribbean, combined with an upper-level area of low pressure, will bring increased showers and thunderstorms to Puerto Rico and the U.S. Virgin Islands through Sunday afternoon. Hazy conditions are expected to follow early next week as a plume of Saharan dust moves into the region.
Local Weather Forecast
According to the National Weather Service in San Juan, Puerto Rico, the combination of the approaching tropical wave and the area of low pressure will result in an increased risk of unsettled weather across the local area.
“An upper-level low to the west-northwest of the region will maintain marginal instability over the islands,” according to an update on Saturday afternoon from the NWS. “Meanwhile, a tropical wave crossing the eastern Caribbean tonight will pass just south of the area and, combined with the low, will draw deep tropical moisture into the region,” the NWS said.
While the bulk of moisture associated with the approaching tropical wave is expected to remain south of the local islands, heavy rain, along with thunderstorms and lightning, may develop, raising the risk of localized flooding.
“This setup will support scattered to locally numerous showers and possible isolated thunderstorms, mainly across eastern Puerto Rico and the U.S. Virgin Islands on Saturday night, followed by more widespread afternoon convection over interior and northwestern Puerto Rico on Sunday,” the NWS stated. “This overall pattern will persist through Sunday afternoon,” the NWS added.
The Source contacted the NWS in San Juan for comment about the current weather forecast.
“The latest guidance remains on track with showers and thunderstorms associated with the tropical wave increasing from Saturday evening through at least early Sunday morning,” said David Sánchez, a lead meteorologist at the NWS.
“Rainfall totals in general are expected to range between half to an inch of rain across all the territories. However, higher amounts cannot be ruled out, as showers may redevelop over land areas, particularly during the overnight hours on Saturday,” Sanchez explained.
“The main impacts with the thunderstorms are lightning strikes, gusty winds, and ponding of water on roads and in poor drainage areas,” Sanchez added.
After the passage of the tropical wave, residents and visitors across the territory should expect to see a hazy sky through the beginning of the workweek due to the arrival of another round of Saharan dust. Very warm temperatures may also occur; individuals are encouraged to remain hydrated and stay as cool as possible to avoid heat-related illnesses.
“Slightly drier air, accompanied by moderate concentrations of suspended Saharan dust, will follow the tropical wave, leading to hazy skies and degraded air quality through early next week,” the NWS said.
Additionally, the NWS noted that gusty winds will continue across the islands, resulting in wind-driven, choppy seas and an elevated risk of rip currents.
“Breezy winds will sustain choppy seas and maintain a moderate risk of rip currents along exposed beaches over the next few days,” according to the NWS.
National Hurricane Center Watching for Development
The National Hurricane Center has been closely monitoring both the Atlantic basin and the Eastern Pacific basin for signs of cyclonic development.
As of Saturday afternoon, the NHC explained that a disturbance near the Bay of Campeche near eastern Mexico had developed into “Tropical Depression Two,” and it was packing maximum sustained winds of 30 mph. The system is expected to intensify into a tropical storm before making landfall along the east coast of Mexico early Monday with maximum sustained winds of at least 39 mph. If the system intensifies, it will be designated “Barry,” the second named cyclone of the 2025 Atlantic hurricane season. A Tropical Storm Warning has been issued for portions of eastern Mexico.
Regardless of development, the disturbance is forecast to bring heavy rain to portions of Mexico and Guatemala over the next few days. (The first storm of the year in the Atlantic basin was named Andrea, a short-lived tropical storm in the central Atlantic Ocean.)
Meanwhile, the Eastern Pacific basin has been busy with cyclonic development, and the NHC expects an area in the Pacific Ocean near southern Mexico to develop over the coming days.
The NHC does not anticipate cyclonic development near the USVI or Puerto Rico in the immediate future. However, another tropical wave is forecast to pass through the Caribbean next Thursday or Friday.
Stay Informed About Weather Events
The Atlantic hurricane season began on June 1 and will run until November 30, with the climatological peak of the season occurring in mid-September. USVI residents and visitors are encouraged to be prepared.
In addition to obtaining weather information from the NWS and NOAA, the local weather forecast for the U.S. Virgin Islands is regularly updated on the Source Weather Page and VI Source YouTube Channel. Individuals can also find helpful weather information and alerts from the Virgin Islands Territorial Emergency Management Agency.
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