The National Weather Service expects a tropical wave to pass across the USVI and Puerto Rico this weekend, increasing the chance of rainfall. Separately, the National Hurricane Center is monitoring a disturbance off the southeast coast of the United States near the Gulf for potential cyclonic development.
The NWS in San Juan, Puerto Rico, explained that moisture associated with a tropical wave that had been watched in the Atlantic earlier this week will move south of the USVI and Puerto Rico through Thursday, and impacts to the local islands are expected to be minimal. However, another tropical wave will approach the local islands this weekend, increasing the chance of precipitation.
“A tropical wave, formerly known as ‘Invest 94L,’ is located at around 53W longitude and it carries significant moisture, but the bulk of the wave is projected to remain south of the area,” the NWS explained in an update on Wednesday. “As a result, widespread rainfall is not expected over the forecast area from this wave. However, scattered showers may still develop due to pockets of shallow moisture being transported by the trade winds,” the NWS update stated.
The NWS continued its remarks by warning about a second tropical wave that could affect the USVI and Puerto Rico beginning Saturday night.
“The global forecast models have consistently suggested a tropical wave approaching the region by Saturday night into Sunday, with moisture content lingering through early Monday,” the NWS explained.
“Combined with other environmental factors, moderate to strong showers are possible, along with thunderstorms over the region,” the NWS said. “Rainfall accumulations are very likely to increase the flooding potential across most sectors of the local islands,” the NWS warned.
NHC Tracking Tropical Disturbance Near the Gulf
Regarding tropical activity in the near future, the National Hurricane Center is following a disturbance located off the southeast coast of the continental U.S., which may cross into the Gulf. As of Wednesday afternoon, the system has a low, 10% chance of strengthening. Still, heavy rain is possible across areas of Florida and the Gulf Coast states, and travelers are advised to stay informed.
“Over the next day or two, this system is forecast to move west-southwestward into the north-central portion of the Gulf where some slow development is possible,” according to an update on Wednesday from the NHC.
“By this weekend, the system is likely to move inland, ending its chances for development. Regardless of tropical cyclone formation, locally heavy rainfall is possible for portions of Florida over the next day or so, and the northern Gulf Coast through this weekend,” the NHC cautioned.
Alex DaSilva, lead hurricane specialist at AccuWeather, shared additional information about the tropical disturbance being monitored by the NHC in comments provided to the Source on Wednesday.
“If the low-pressure area stays close to the coast, it likely won’t develop at all, DaSilva stated. “If it moves into the central Gulf, it may have a slightly better chance, although there’s a lot of wind shear in the region that will likely limit any development. Even if it does develop, it’s likely to remain weak in terms of wind intensity, and a hurricane is unlikely,” DaSilva said.
“We do expect downpours along parts of the Gulf Coast, including southern Louisiana, Mississippi, Alabama, Florida, and potentially into Texas by the weekend,” DaSilva explained.
NOAA Global Tropics Hazards Outlook
The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration’s Climate Prediction Center released its weekly Global Tropics Hazards Outlook on Tuesday, July 22. The forecast tool offers a glimpse into potential developments across tropical basins approximately three weeks into the future. According to the update, significant cyclonic development is not expected near the U.S. Virgin Islands through the beginning to middle part of August.
However, DaSilva explained that as August progresses, tropical activity could become more likely, noting that several environmental conditions could become more conducive for cyclonic development, including a reduction in wind shear and less dry, Saharan dust across the Atlantic Ocean.
“We’ll be watching for more tropical waves coming off Africa,” DaSilva said. “We’re still early in the season, so anything significant is unlikely in early August. But this is when we start watching those African waves more closely,” he acknowledged.
“As for the U.S. Virgin Islands, I think there could be one or two impacts during this hurricane season,” DaSilva predicted. “Historically, the most likely time for the region to be affected is in September, which is also the statistical peak of the season. That’s typically when African waves are strongest and most active,” he added.
“There doesn’t appear to be anything significant in the near term, but as we move into August and conditions become more favorable, we need to start paying close attention,” DaSilva said.
Follow Local Weather Updates
Finally, during a Wednesday morning phone call with the Source, Ian Carlos Colón-Pagán, a lead meteorologist at the NWS in San Juan, Puerto Rico, reminded individuals about weather-related threats that will continue to affect both U.S. territories, including gusty winds, very warm temperatures, choppy seas, and an elevated risk of rip currents.
“We have a Small Craft Advisory in effect for the waters surrounding the Virgin Islands and a moderate rip current risk for most local beaches, at least through the next 24 to 48 hours,” Colón-Pagán said.
The NWS local forecast update also noted the possibility of yet another tropical wave passing through the Caribbean early next week, though uncertainty is high. Nevertheless, it is crucial to remember that the forecast can change very quickly. USVI residents and visitors are encouraged to continue to remain prepared.
In addition to obtaining weather information from the NWS, the NHC, and NOAA, the local weather forecast for the U.S. Virgin Islands is regularly updated on the Source Weather Page and VI Source YouTube Channel. Individuals can also find helpful weather information and alerts from the Virgin Islands Territorial Emergency Management Agency.
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