The National Weather Service in San Juan, Puerto Rico, warns that tropical disturbances will bring heavy rain, thunderstorms, gusty winds, and flooding risks to the U.S. Virgin Islands and Puerto Rico starting late Tuesday night and lasting several days. Schools and government offices will be closed territory-wide on Wednesday.
Tropical Waves to Affect Local Region
The National Hurricane Center has been tracking tropical disturbances, including Hurricane Gabrielle, a major Category 3 storm well to the north of Puerto Rico and the U.S. Virgin Islands. Gabrielle passed east of Bermuda on Monday, generating swells along the U.S. East Coast and is forecast to approach the Azores Islands off Portugal on Thursday.
In addition to Gabrielle, the NHC has been closely monitoring Invest 93L and Invest 94L, both located near the Lesser Antilles. The systems are expected to bring unsettled weather to the islands beginning late Tuesday night, starting with Invest 94L as it crosses the region. Flooding and landslides are a concern, particularly given the recent heavy rains that inundated portions of the USVI. Eventually, both systems may strengthen into tropical depressions.
Given the potential for severe weather, Lt. Gov. Tregenza Roach announced that public schools and government offices will be closed on Wednesday.
Invest 94L
“Invest 94L is located over the extreme northeastern Caribbean Sea and continues to produce a large area of disorganized showers, thunderstorms, and gusty winds across much of the Windward Islands and Leeward Islands,” the NHC said on Tuesday evening. “This wave is expected to move west-northwestward at 15 to 20 mph, spreading heavy rainfall and gusty winds into Puerto Rico and the Virgin Islands tonight and Wednesday, and across the Dominican Republic beginning late Wednesday. The system is then expected to slow down and turn northwestward when it reaches the southwestern Atlantic in a couple of days. Environmental conditions are forecast to be more conducive for development late this week, and a tropical depression is likely to form when the disturbance is in the vicinity of the Bahamas,” the NHC said.
“Interests in the Virgin Islands, Puerto Rico, the Dominican Republic, the Turks and Caicos Islands, and the Bahamas should monitor the progress of this system,” the NHC added.
Invest 94L has a low chance of development over the next 48 hours and a high chance of development over the next seven days.
Invest 93L
The National Hurricane Center reported that, as of 8 p.m. AST Tuesday, Invest 93L was located about 750 miles east of the Lesser Antilles. The system has a high chance of development within the next 48 hours and over the next seven days, and it may strengthen into a tropical depression or possibly a tropical storm. Forecasters said the core of the disturbance is expected to pass north of Puerto Rico and the U.S. Virgin Islands later this week, although associated moisture is still likely to affect the islands.
VITEMA Press Briefing and NWS Information
On Tuesday afternoon, Daryl Jaschen, director of the Virgin Islands Territorial Emergency Management Agency, held a press briefing at Government House on St. Croix regarding the expected severe weather. Jaschen urged residents across the region to prepare for severe weather over the coming days.
Jaschen explained that VITEMA and the NWS have been in communication about the approaching weather threats, and that there is a strong likelihood of heavy rainfall, gusty winds, and the potential for flash flooding.
The NWS in San Juan, Puerto Rico, issued the following statement on Tuesday regarding the tropical weather:
“A wet pattern is expected to persist throughout the rest of the workweek, increasing the risk of flooding.
“For Puerto Rico, there is a risk of urban/isolated flash flooding, landslides, and some rivers reaching flood stage. Estimated rainfall accumulation for the event is between two and four inches, with locally higher up to six inches across eastern Puerto Rico, with Wednesday and Thursday looking most impactful. Expect strong gusty winds near thunderstorms,” cautioned the NWS.
“For the USVI, there is a risk of urban flooding, ponding on roads and low-lying areas, isolated flash flooding, and possible landslides. Rainfall could also reach two to four inches daily, with locally higher amounts. Expect strong gusty winds near thunderstorms.
“We encourage close monitoring of any NWS flood watches or warnings that could be issued, and be prepared for possible impacts,” the NWS said.
During Tuesday’s briefing, Jaschen urged residents across the territory to stay home and off the roads on Wednesday if possible, warning that heavy rainfall could lead to hazardous driving conditions and road closures.
Jaschen also advised travelers to check with their airlines regarding possible flight delays or cancellations. Additionally, he stressed that hot weather and high humidity would continue across the islands.
Hurricane Expert Insight
The Source contacted Alex DaSilva, AccuWeather’s lead hurricane expert, to learn more about the potential tropical weather threats in the coming days.
Regarding Invest 94L, DaSilva explained that the tropical wave could pass over or just south of the U.S. Virgin Islands. He noted the disturbance is battling wind shear, and rapid intensification is not a concern at this time. However, the storm is likely to strengthen once it moves past the local region and continues toward the Bahamas.
“Invest 94L is enduring strong wind shear from the north, and most of the convection is actually south of the Virgin Islands right now, toward Barbados,” DaSilva said. “The storm has not been gaining latitude, and although it looked like it was going to pass north of Puerto Rico, it now appears it could track south of Puerto Rico. It may pass directly over the U.S. Virgin Islands or even a bit south of the USVI. Over the next 24 hours, we will have to see exactly what happens, whether it stays north or south of the islands,” he said.
“For the U.S. Virgin Islands and Puerto Rico, we expect gusty winds and downpours starting Tuesday night or Wednesday morning as this tropical wave continues to move west,” DaSilva said. “I think Wednesday is the best day to see heavier downpours, and that could even carry into Thursday. So be aware that it looks like a very wet pattern is setting up over the next couple of days with some gusty winds and some heavy rain,” DaSilva emphasized.
Speaking about Invest 93L, the second tropical disturbance under investigation by the NHC, DaSilva noted there is still uncertainty about the system’s track. While he expects Invest 93L to move north of the U.S. Virgin Islands, he pointed out that the wave has shifted slightly farther west over the past day, and time will tell if that trend continues. The interaction between Invest 93L and Invest 94L will play a role in what ultimately happens with both waves.
“I don’t think Invest 93L is going to be a big threat to the islands,” DaSilva said. “It should stay north, but it could potentially come a little bit farther west, a little closer to the United States mainland,” he added.
Finally, DaSilva said that once the current tropical waves move past the region — most notably Invest 94L — there may not be additional threats until October.
“Other than Invest 94L coming through the islands, bringing some heavy rain, I don’t think there’s too much to worry about. We’ll have to see what happens in the beginning of October as the next round of tropical waves emerge,” he stated.
NOAA Global Tropics Hazards Outlook
According to a Global Tropics Hazards Outlook released Tuesday, there will continue to be an elevated chance of cyclonic development across portions of the Atlantic basin in the coming weeks. The forecast tool, which is issued every Tuesday by NOAA’s Climate Prediction Center, provides insight into potential activity across tropical basins up to three weeks in advance.
In its latest update, NOAA said that areas across a portion of the Main Development Region of the Atlantic basin — the zone between the west coast of Africa and the Caribbean — may experience a 20-40% chance of tropical development during the “Week Two” outlook period, which runs from Oct. 1 until Oct. 7.
Development is not forecast across the Main Development Region in the “Week Three” outlook, running from Oct. 8 through Oct. 14. However, according to the forecast, areas across the western Caribbean Sea and the Gulf are likely to see an elevated chance of tropical cyclogenesis at times in October.
Additionally, the Eastern Pacific basin, which remains active, is also expected to experience an increased risk for cyclonic development in the coming weeks.
Local Weather Information and Staying Informed
Finally, the NWS has reminded residents and visitors of ongoing weather-related threats for Puerto Rico and the USVI, including very warm temperatures, which could prompt heat alerts across the region.
Additionally, marine conditions will be hazardous due to nearby tropical systems, and there will be an elevated risk of rip currents across local beaches. On Tuesday afternoon, a Small Craft Advisory was issued by the NWS, and the alert will be in effect for portions of the waters surrounding the local islands until at least 6 p.m. Wednesday.
The forecast can change very quickly, and USVI residents and visitors are encouraged to continue to remain prepared. Weather information is available from the NWS, the NHC, and NOAA.
The local weather forecast for the U.S. Virgin Islands is also regularly updated on the Source Weather Page and VI Source YouTube Channel. Additionally, A weekly Tropical Outlook article from the Source will be published throughout hurricane season to provide in-depth updates.
Residents and visitors can find additional weather alerts and preparedness information from the Virgin Islands Territorial Emergency Management Agency.
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