The National Hurricane Center does not expect tropical cyclone development across the Atlantic basin during the next seven days as the 2025 Atlantic hurricane season ends on Sunday, Nov. 30. Breezy weather and choppy seas will affect the U.S. Virgin Islands and Puerto Rico over the coming days.
Atlantic Hurricane Season Ends Nov. 30
While the NHC does not anticipate any development prior to the official end of the season on Nov. 30, a Global Tropics Hazards Outlook released Tuesday by NOAA’s Climate Prediction Center also noted that tropical activity is not expected across the Atlantic basin.
However, a recent long-range run of the Global Forecast System hinted at a low-confidence signal for possible activity in the western Caribbean. The chance of organization is very low, but the reminder underscores the importance of staying prepared for severe weather year-round.
The Source contacted Alex DaSilva, lead hurricane expert at AccuWeather, to obtain information about the potential chance of seeing any tropical activity as the season wraps up.
“There’s a very good chance the season is over,” DaSilva affirmed. “Over the last several days, the GFS, which is the American computer forecast model, has been trying to spin something up in the western Caribbean and take it north toward the Gulf. I really don’t believe that scenario, and the chances are very small at this time,” he said.
“While the ocean water temperatures are currently warm enough, I don’t see anything to kickstart cyclonic development. There are no tropical waves coming through now, because tropical wave season is essentially done,” said DaSilva. “We haven’t seen waves crossing the Atlantic recently, and it doesn’t look like the Central American Gyre will be strong enough to produce a tropical system. It’s also important to note that the GFS has a known bias toward overdoing tropical development in the western Caribbean, so that’s a factor as well.”
DaSilva emphasized that while a system could theoretically form, tropical cyclogenesis appears exceedingly unlikely as the season concludes.
“From now until the end of the season, the chance of development is very low. We are monitoring, but we don’t have anything in the outlook right now. The water temperatures are also beginning to cool, especially into the Gulf, reducing the chance that anything that might form could affect the United States mainland,” DaSilva added.
Lessons Learned During This Year’s Hurricane Season
On Tuesday, the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration released a report summarizing the 2025 Atlantic hurricane season. NOAA noted that the season produced 13 named storms and featured long stretches of inactivity across the Atlantic basin. However, several hurricanes rapidly intensified into Category 5 strength on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale, including Hurricane Melissa, which caused major devastation across Jamaica and the western Caribbean.
“The 2025 Atlantic hurricane season, which officially ends on November 30, was notable for its striking contrast: wavering between periods of relative calm and bursts of intense activity, generating very powerful storms. Overall, the season fell within the predicted ranges for named storms, hurricanes, and major hurricanes issued in NOAA’s seasonal outlooks,” NOAA said.
DaSilva also reported additional unique occurrences throughout the season.
“The biggest takeaway is that we didn’t see any hurricanes hit the United States this year., This hurricane season was the first time in 10 years without a hurricane landfall in the U.S.,” DaSilva noted. “Tropical Storm Chantal was the only U.S. landfall, but this occurred at tropical-storm strength. That being said, Hurricanes Imelda and Erin came close enough to the U.S. mainland to still bring impacts to several U.S. areas.”
“One of the most interesting meteorological events this season was the Fujiwhara Effect between Hurricanes Humberto and Imelda off the Southeast coast. Imelda was essentially pulled out to sea by Humberto as the two storms interacted. This type of interaction is extremely rare in the Atlantic, and I strongly believe that without Humberto, Imelda likely would have hit the United States and brought significant rainfall to either Florida or the Carolinas. Humberto was essentially a saving grace in preventing a U.S. landfall from Imelda, declared DaSilva.
“Another major takeaway is the number of intense storms that formed this year. 2025 was only the second year on record with three Category 5 hurricanes, Melissa included. The only season that produced more major hurricanes was 2005, which had four Category 5 hurricanes,” DaSilva observed.
“This season, there were many tropical storms that struggled to reach hurricane strength, but the storms that did become hurricanes intensified all the way into major hurricanes and even Category 5 storms,” he continued.
Will Future Seasons Be Similar to 2025?
DaSilva explained that this year’s season could be an indication of what future hurricane seasons will look like.
“The events of the 2025 Atlantic hurricane season may be a sign of what we will see more often in the future,” DaSilva predicted. “Research is still inconclusive on whether a warming climate will lead to more storms overall, as warming can also increase atmospheric stability and wind shear,” he said.
“What is more conclusive is that storms are becoming stronger and intensifying faster, and this year reflected that. While many storms in 2025 remained weak, the ones that intensified did so very quickly and powerfully,” noted DaSilva. “Hurricane Melissa is a good example, as it rapidly intensified right on Jamaica’s doorstep, because it tapped into very warm, untouched waters with low wind shear. We saw something similar with Hurricane Beryl in the eastern Caribbean in 2024. Rapid intensification events are becoming more frequent.”
“The big message is that even if a season has many weak storms, powerful hurricanes can still develop, and it only takes one to make a season impactful,” DaSilva cautioned. “It is critical for people to follow forecast updates every hurricane season. Look for AccuWeather’s seasonal forecast in March, when we highlight the regions at greatest risk, well ahead of other sources.”
The “Christmas Winds”
As hurricane season fades and the winter season approaches, residents and visitors across the Caribbean will experience a much different kind of wind event, known as the “Christmas Winds.”
“The Christmas Winds are a local term used in the Caribbean, and this term is used to describe a seasonal change in wind patterns that develops after hurricane season as we transition into winter,” DaSilva explained. “They can occur anytime from late November through February, occasionally as early as late November or as late as early March, but most commonly from December through early February.”
Meteorologically, the winter breezes do not bring true frigid temperatures to the islands, of course. Rather, the winds are relatively cool, typically accompanied by drier, less humid air.
“The Christmas Winds generally form for two reasons,” DaSilva said. “One reason involves southward dips in the jet stream, because during winter, the jet stream and accompanying cold fronts can push farther south across the tropical Atlantic. When this happens, stronger winds, often from the north or northwest, spread into the northern Caribbean,” he described.
“The second reason for the winds is a southward displacement of the Bermuda High. A powerful nor’easter off the U.S. East Coast, or a strong storm coming off the Carolinas, can shove the Bermuda High pressure system farther south. This increases the trade winds from the northeast or east. Typically, Christmas Winds feature winds from the north, northwest, or northeast, though easterly winds can strengthen when the Bermuda High shifts south,” DaSilva continued.
While the seasonal breeze does not typically cause major weather-related issues, there are several impacts that occur, particularly regarding marine conditions.
“The winds often range from 30 to 40 knots and can occasionally exceed that where funneling occurs between islands, creating localized acceleration,” DaSilva explained. “Possible impacts include increased wave action and northerly swells, especially along exposed northern coasts of islands like Puerto Rico. This can produce large waves and rip currents. This can be dangerous for inexperienced boaters but can provide excellent sailing for those familiar with the pattern, and surfers may welcome the stronger swell. While residents are familiar with these hazards, tourists may not be,” he cautioned.
“The winds typically bring drier air from the north, resulting in lower dew points and reduced humidity, a welcome break from the heat for many island residents. Overall, the Christmas Winds are generally viewed positively, because they signal the end of hurricane season and bring more comfortable air, but they can create dangerous conditions for boaters and beachgoers,” DaSilva warned.
Local Weather Conditions
Regarding the local forecast, the cooling Christmas Winds will be arriving across the islands soon. Breezy conditions out of the east to east-northeast are expected over the coming days, with generally fair weather, according to the National Weather Service in San Juan, Puerto Rico. Although there will be a chance of showers, any rainfall should pass quickly due to the expected windy conditions.
“Limited shower activity is expected across Puerto Rico and the U.S. Virgin Islands through at least the upcoming weekend,” the NWS said on Thursday afternoon. “Breezy conditions are anticipated across the local islands, and unsecured items could blow around.”
Marine conditions will also be hazardous due to the gusty winds, and seas could reach up to six or seven feet. Small Craft Advisories are in effect for portions of the Atlantic waters of Puerto Rico and the U.S. Virgin Islands through Friday. The risk of rip currents will also be elevated, with a moderate to high risk of rip currents at coastlines across the region.
“Wind-driven seas will result in choppy and hazardous marine conditions for small craft,” the NWS stated. “Additionally, life-threatening rip currents will remain possible across most beaches of Puerto Rico and the U.S. Virgin Islands during the next few days.”
Stay Informed
Although hurricane season ends soon, residents and visitors across the USVI are encouraged to stay vigilant and remain prepared for severe weather throughout the year. For the latest updates, visit the official websites of NOAA, the NWS, and the NHC.
The local weather forecast for the U.S. Virgin Islands is also regularly updated on the Source Weather Page and VI Source YouTube Channel. Additionally, residents and visitors can find weather alerts and preparedness information from the Virgin Islands Territorial Emergency Management Agency.
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