The National Hurricane Center continues to monitor Hurricane Erin, located just off the U.S. East Coast, while also tracking two additional disturbances across the Atlantic basin as the hurricane season stays active.
As of an update at 2 p.m. Wednesday, the NHC reported that Hurricane Erin was about 335 miles south-southeast of Cape Hatteras, North Carolina, moving north with maximum sustained winds of 110 mph as a Category 2 storm. While Erin’s core is forecast to remain over water, forecasters said it could regain Category 3 strength as it tracks north. The storm’s large size could bring gusty winds, rough seas, and dangerous rip currents to much of the U.S. East Coast. Tropical weather alerts are in effect for parts of North Carolina, Virginia, as well as Bermuda.
Two Storm Systems Brewing in the Atlantic
Closer to the U.S. Virgin Islands and Puerto Rico, the National Hurricane Center is monitoring Disturbance #1, a tropical wave in the central Atlantic with a low chance of development over the next 48 hours and a moderate chance within seven days. Farther east, Invest 99L is also being tracked, with a moderate chance of formation in both the short- and long-term outlooks. An “invest” is an area the NHC designates for closer investigation due to its potential for tropical development.
As of 2 p.m. Wednesday, the NHC provided the following update regarding Disturbance #1:
“A tropical wave located several hundred miles east of the Leeward Islands continues to produce a broad area of disorganized showers and thunderstorms. Environmental conditions appear conducive for gradual development of this system, and a tropical depression could form by this weekend while it moves near or to the north of the northern Leeward Islands,” the NHC said.
A tropical depression is defined by the NHC as “a tropical cyclone with maximum sustained winds of 38 mph or less.”
The NHC also shared information about Invest 99L:
“Satellite-derived surface wind data from earlier on Wednesday revealed that a concentrated area of showers and thunderstorms located several hundred miles southwest of the Cabo Verde Islands lacks a closed surface circulation,” the NHC said. “Environmental conditions appear marginally favorable for additional development over the next day or so while the system moves west-southwestward at around 15 mph, and a short-lived tropical depression could form. By the end of the week, environmental conditions are expected to become unfavorable for further development,” the NHC predicted.
National Weather Service Information
In a Wednesday afternoon update, the National Weather Service in San Juan, Puerto Rico, said it was relatively confident that Disturbance #1 may pass northeast of the local islands. Even so, meteorologists noted the system could still bring increased rainfall and thunderstorms, along with a risk of flooding, and the forecast could still change.
“The latest computer forecast guidance continues to suggest that Disturbance #1, the strong tropical wave monitored by the NHC, should move to the northeast of the local islands on Saturday,” the NWS said.
“This wave will shift the winds from the north, with plenty of moisture reaching Puerto Rico and the Virgin Islands. Showers and thunderstorms are expected to stream into the region, maintaining an elevated risk of flooding and a limited risk of lightning.
“Residents are advised to continue monitoring updates, as any changes in the tropical wave’s potential development or track could significantly shift the areas experiencing the heaviest showers and thunderstorms, potentially leading to flooding,” the NWS cautioned.
VITEMA Director Reminds Residents to Stay Prepared
Daryl Jaschen, director of the Virgin Islands Virgin Islands Territorial Emergency Management Agency, joined a Wednesday morning radio segment on 107.9 FM “DaVybe” radio station, where he urged residents and visitors to remain prepared and keep monitoring forecasts.
Jaschen said that while the two tropical waves in the Atlantic do not currently pose a major hurricane threat to the territory, residents should be prepared to manage on their own for five to 10 days after a storm. He noted that hurricanes can disrupt supply chains into the Virgin Islands, including shipments of fuel needed to power the Virgin Islands Water and Power Authority.
He assured residents that VITEMA can open storm shelters if needed during an emergency and advised individuals to assemble an emergency supply kit and create a clear communication plan with family and friends in case services are disrupted.
Jaschen also stressed safety, reminding the public that generators should never be used indoors and encouraging households to keep medications, water, nonperishable food, and cash on hand in the event of extended power outages.
Finally, Jaschen encouraged residents to sign up for VITEMA emergency alerts through the agency’s website.
NOAA Global Tropics Hazards Outlook
Looking ahead, the potential for more tropical development will remain possible, particularly at the start of September, according to a Global Tropics Hazards Outlook released Tuesday, Aug. 19. The forecast tool, which is issued weekly by the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration’s Climate Prediction Center, provides insight into potential activity across tropical basins up to three weeks in advance.
In its latest update, NOAA said that once Disturbance #1, currently near the Leeward Islands, moves away over the next week, conditions for storm formation may briefly become less favorable before ramping up again at the beginning of September.
“The NHC is monitoring Disturbance #1 over the central Atlantic that has a moderate potential for development over the next several days,” the NOAA update explained. “Should this system develop, it would be located somewhere over the western portion of the Atlantic basin at the start of the ‘Week Two’ outlook period, which runs from Aug. 27 until Sept. 2,” NOAA said.
“Following this system, environmental conditions are forecast to become somewhat unfavorable for additional tropical cyclogenesis across the Atlantic Main Development Region for several days to a week,” NOAA explained.
However, NOAA added that in early September, additional tropical waves are expected to again move off the west coast of Africa, some of which could organize into tropical systems. The agency highlighted both the western Caribbean and the Main Development Region — the zone between Africa and the Caribbean — as areas with increasing chances for activity in the coming weeks.
Meanwhile, the Eastern Pacific basin, which has been active recently, is also expected to experience an elevated risk for cyclonic development in the coming weeks.
Local Weather Forecast Information
The climatological peak of the hurricane season of mid-September is fast-approaching, and it is crucial to remember that the forecast can change very quickly. USVI residents and visitors are encouraged to continue to remain prepared. Weather information is available from the NWS, the NHC, and NOAA.
The local weather forecast for the U.S. Virgin Islands is regularly updated on the Source Weather Page and VI Source YouTube Channel. A weekly Tropical Outlook article from the Source is also published throughout hurricane season to provide in-depth updates.
Residents and visitors can find additional weather alerts and preparedness information from VITEMA.
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