Impact on the USVI includes big tax breaks, a key carve-out, and real revenue risks
The U.S. Virgin Islands stands to gain — and potentially lose — as President Donald Trump’s massive tax and spending package nears the finish line in Congress. The Senate version of the bill, officially dubbed the One Big Beautiful Bill Act, passed early Tuesday after a marathon session of amendment votes and now heads back to the House for final approval.
That version includes a significant win for the Virgin Islands: a tax carve-out that protects local investment incentives. But it also raises serious concerns, especially about the long-term impact on federal support programs and the territory’s financial stability.
Among the most consequential provisions for the territory is the Senate’s inclusion of a permanent extension of the rum cover-over at $13.25 per proof gallon — a rate that, while in place for years, has required frequent renewals by Congress. Without action, the rate would stay at the current $10.50, slashing the territory’s annual return by tens of millions. And even with the Senate’s support, the extension isn’t guaranteed to be retroactive: the House version of the bill does not include the provision, raising questions about whether the higher rate would apply retroactively to January 2022 or only prospectively after Dec. 31 — if it survives final negotiations at all.
At his weekly press briefing, Gov. Albert Bryan Jr. called the move “monumental,” saying it would finally bring predictability to a revenue stream the territory has had to fight for year after year. He also shared that the administration took the lead in lobbying the Senate, while Delegate Stacey Plaskett focused on building support in the House. “We divided the work,” he said. “We handled the Senate, and Congresswoman Plaskett is now pushing hard in the House to make sure it stays in.”
“We’ve cleared the Senate hurdle, but the House is where this gets tricky,” he added. “If this doesn’t survive the next round, we’re right back to begging Congress annually for money we already rely on. That uncertainty has hurt us long enough.”
A Win for Investment, a Risk to Revenues
One of the territory’s biggest wins in the Senate bill is the inclusion of language that exempts USVI-based companies from the 10.5% global minimum tax, known as GILTI. Without that fix, local Economic Development Commission companies would have faced new federal tax burdens, undermining one of the USVI’s most important economic tools.
The carve-out was hard-won after months of advocacy from local officials and private sector stakeholders, and also corrects a long-standing issue known as the “GILTI glitch” from the 2017 Tax Cuts and Jobs Act that made it difficult for U.S. citizens to fully take advantage of local tax incentives.
According to Bryan, securing the exemption was no small feat and reflects what he called the “quiet but critical” work of his administration and national allies in preserving the territory’s ability to compete. “That carve-out is a stabilizer for us — it keeps investment flowing and jobs on the ground,” he said. “But that doesn’t mean the rest of this bill is something we can celebrate.”
While the tax carve-out protects investment incentives, other provisions in the bill threaten to reduce local government revenues by as much as $125 million a year. That’s because the bill shifts the federal government’s revenue stream from income taxes — which the USVI mirrors and benefits from — to tariffs, which do not flow back to the territory.
Without that revenue, the V.I. government may be forced to make hard choices: raise taxes, cut spending, or both.
Bryan said his financial team has been reviewing possible scenarios for several months and that the administration is prepared to reforecast if needed. “When you remove that kind of revenue, you’re talking about real consequences — slower processing of passports, fewer government services, scaled-back community programs. We’ve got to be ready,” he said.
The bill also proposes cuts and tighter restrictions on Medicaid and SNAP (food stamp) programs, including new work requirements and eligibility reviews. While the USVI receives both as capped block grants rather than open-ended entitlements, any reduction or restructuring in Washington puts added pressure on local services.
Medicaid in particular has benefited from a temporarily boosted federal match rate of 83%, but that support could change if Congress tightens funding or adds new compliance hurdles. Bryan called that possibility alarming, saying that changes to federal aid programs could disproportionately impact the territory’s most vulnerable residents.
A Complicated Future for the Territory
At Monday’s weekly press briefing, Bryan said he was proud of the carve-out included in the Senate bill, calling it a critical step toward long-term stability for the local economy. But he also emphasized that the bill’s other provisions could weigh heavily on the territory.
“This bill is going to put serious pressure on local government resources,” Bryan said. “We’ve been spending millions a year just to keep core programs alive, and now we’re looking at even more responsibility being pushed down from the federal level.”
He pointed to possible impacts on Section 8 housing programs, noting that if federal support is capped at two years, the burden will fall on the local government to provide long-term assistance. “When those programs time out, it becomes our responsibility. And the truth is, we may not be equipped to carry it all,” he said.
Bryan said the administration is also bracing for reduced federal revenue tied to the bill’s tax changes. “We can’t make reckless, feel-good decisions. We have hospitals, schools, and pensions to fund. And now we’re looking at losing revenue we were counting on.”
He added that while the bill locks in tax cuts for the wealthy and makes massive infrastructure investments on the mainland, the Virgin Islands will have to work harder to cover basic needs if local dollars shrink. “We’re not just talking about numbers — we’re talking about people who rely on these programs to survive,” he said. “And if those dollars disappear, we’re the ones who have to catch them.”
The bill now returns to the House of Representatives, which passed its own version last month. The two chambers must reconcile differences before sending the final measure to Trump, who has demanded it be signed into law by Friday.
If that happens, the bill would add more than $3.3 trillion to the federal deficit over the next decade, according to the Congressional Budget Office. It would also make permanent several Trump-era tax cuts, restructure social safety nets, and reshape how Washington funds itself — and what gets passed down to the states and territories.
For the Virgin Islands, the picture is complicated. The territory’s ability to attract investors is preserved. But the cost of doing so may be steep, as federal aid contracts and local revenues face increasing strain.
As Bryan noted during his briefing, the government is paying attention — and preparing for the aftermath.
“We’ve seen this movie before,” he said. “Big promises, short-term gains, and then years of cleanup. I want people to know we’re not waiting to react — we’re planning now.”
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