St. Croix, USVI

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St. Croix
2:46 am, Jul 4, 2025
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Showers Possible Friday as Tropical Wave Approaches; More Saharan Dust Expected

Virgin Islands News

A weak tropical wave is expected to bring spotty showers to parts of the U.S. Virgin Islands and Puerto Rico Friday, as residents and visitors mark the Fourth of Ju­ly holiday. More Saharan dust is forecast to follow and linger into the weekend, possibly reducing air quality and visibility.

Local Weather Information

The weather across the USVI was relatively tranquil overall on Emancipation Day, July 3. However, according to the National Weather Service in San Juan, Puerto Rico, a tropical wave passing through the Caribbean may increase the chance of showers and thunderstorms beginning Friday.

“Forecast models continue to indicate a weak tropical wave approaching the region by Friday, on the 4th­­­­ of July holiday,” according to an update on Thursday afternoon from the NWS.

“Although the core of the wave is expected to remain south of Puerto Rico and the U.S. Virgin Islands, enhanced moisture will move across the area,” the NWS explained. “This will support scattered showers throughout the day, with afternoon convection likely across eastern Puerto Rico, as well as the interior and western areas,” the NWS said.

After the passage of the wave, another plume of Saharan dust will move into the region, causing a hazy sky.

“A dense plume of Saharan dust is forecast to gradually arrive by Friday afternoon, bringing moderate to high concentrations across the region through the weekend,” the NWS stated. “As a result, limited deep rainfall development, hazy skies, reduced visibility, and a decline in air quality are expected.”

Additionally, the NWS warned that temperatures will be very warm across the local islands.

“Temperatures will continue to trend above normal, with heat indices expected to reach heat advisory criteria, particularly in coastal and urban areas,” the NWS warned. “Therefore, residents and visitors are advised to stay well hydrated, wear lightweight and breathable clothing, and avoid prolonged exposure to the sun by taking frequent breaks in shaded or air-conditioned areas,” the NWS advised.

“These precautions are especially important for those participating in outdoor activities, as the combination of high heat and dusty conditions can increase the risk of heat-related illnesses and respiratory discomfort,” the NWS added.

Looking ahead, the forecast for the upcoming workweek indicates additional moisture from an upper-level low, which may bring increased cloudiness, scattered showers, and isolated thunderstorms. Gusty winds are also expected to continue, which may generate wind-driven, choppy seas.

The NWS noted that next Wednesday and Thursday could have the highest chance of instability, although there is some uncertainty among the weather forecast models.

“Although models had some high levels of uncertainty, next Wednesday into Thursday will be the most unstable days for the long-term period,” the NWS said.

National Hurricane Center Watching for Development

The National Hurricane Center continues to closely watch both the Atlantic basin and the Eastern Pacific basin for signs of cyclonic development.

As of Thursday afternoon, in the Atlantic basin, the NHC explained that an area of low pressure may soon develop off the southeastern coast of the United States. The NHC has noted that the system may become a tropical depression in the coming days.

“Environmental conditions appear only marginally conducive for some slow development, but a tropical or subtropical depression could form over the weekend or early next week while the system drifts northward or northeastward,” the NHC said on Thursday. “Regardless of development, heavy rainfall is possible across portions of the southeast U.S., and particularly across the west-central Florida coast,” the NHC noted.

If the storm eventually intensifies into a tropical storm, with maximum sustained winds of at least 39 mph, it will be designated “Chantal,” the third-named tropical cyclone of this year’s Atlantic hurricane season.

Meanwhile, the Eastern Pacific basin has been busy with cyclonic development. The remnants of Tropical Storm Flossie are churning in the Pacific Ocean as it moves away from Mexico, and the NHC expects another disturbance to develop over the coming days.

The NHC does not anticipate cyclonic development near the USVI or Puerto Rico in the immediate future. Notably, the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration’s Climate Prediction Center’s recent Global Tropics Hazards Outlook does not predict cyclonic development across the Atlantic basin during the middle to latter part of July. Still, the forecast can change quickly, and individuals are encouraged to remain informed.

Stay Updated on the Weather

The Atlantic hurricane season will run until Nov. 30, with the climatological peak of the season occurring in mid-September. USVI residents and visitors are urged to be prepared.

In addition to obtaining weather information from the NWS and NOAA, the local weather forecast for the U.S. Virgin Islands is regularly updated on the Source Weather Page and VI Source YouTube Channel. Individuals can also find helpful weather information and alerts from the Virgin Islands Territorial Emergency Management Agency.

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