Rainfall from Hurricane Erin in August eased dryness in St. Thomas, St. John, and much of Puerto Rico, restoring soil moisture and streams. St. Croix, however, received little relief and is now in Moderate Drought, while parts of eastern Puerto Rico also remain dry.
Details regarding the current drought status across the USVI were included in a report released on Sept. 11 from the National Integrated Drought Information System, the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, and numerous partners, including the U.S. Department of Agriculture and the University of the Virgin Islands.
“The summer months were drier and hotter than normal across most of the U.S. Caribbean,” the report said. “The most significant event of the period was Hurricane Erin, which removed drought or dryness in St. Thomas, St. John, across the USVI, and all but the eastern portions of Puerto Rico. Though some rainfall also reached the eastern half of Puerto Rico, rainfall was below normal, resulting in dry soils and lower-than-normal streamflow.”
Current Drought and Climate Conditions
The Sept. 11 drought update highlighted how uneven conditions remain across the U.S. Caribbean. While much of Puerto Rico and the Virgin Islands are currently drought-free, areas of eastern Puerto Rico and St. Croix face lingering dryness.
“According to the U.S. Drought Monitor, Abnormally Dry (D0) conditions are present in eastern Puerto Rico, with Moderate Drought (D1) on St. Croix. The remaining area is drought-free.”
The report explained that Hurricane Erin, which passed just north of the USVI and Puerto Rico on Saturday, Aug.16, provided several inches of precipitation to areas across the region. The cyclone delivered between four to seven inches of rain in less than 48 hours across St. Thomas, St. John, and much of interior, western, and southern Puerto Rico. St. Croix, however, received little rainfall from the storm.
The drought update said that intermittent rainfall since Erin’s passage has failed to significantly improve groundwater levels across the U.S. Virgin Islands, where water resources remain stressed.
Regional Impacts
The following details about conditions in Puerto Rico, where some areas remain dry despite recent rainfall, were shared in the drought report.
“Drier and warmer-than-normal conditions in August led to cracked soils, dusty conditions, and crop impacts,” the report stated. “By late August and into September, rainfall increased across much of the island, but persistent dry conditions in the eastern interior and northeast continue to impact cacao, fruit trees, and irrigated vegetables, especially in the eastern interior and northeast.”
Across the U.S. Virgin Islands, Hurricane Erin brought heavy rain and even localized flooding to St. Thomas and St. John, replenishing ponds and helping vegetation rebound. Still, St. Croix saw little rainfall from the storm, and showers since then have not fully saturated the island’s soils or improved groundwater levels.
“St. John and St. Thomas reported mild flooding and heavy rain from Hurricane Erin, while St. Croix had little to no rain from the storm. Intermittent rain has not significantly improved groundwater levels, and there are ongoing signs of increased dryness across the territory. Sporadic rain is still occurring but not fully saturating the soil,” the report said.
Agricultural Impacts
The update noted that farmers across both the USVI and Puerto Rico reported mixed outcomes, with some areas benefiting from recent rainfall while others continue to struggle.
In Puerto Rico, Erin’s rainfall improved conditions in parts of the island, particularly in the west. However, farmers in the central interior and northeast still face the effects of this summer’s heat and dryness. According to the update, stress has been reported on cacao, irrigated vegetables, and young fruit trees, which are especially vulnerable to irregular rainfall.
In the U.S. Virgin Islands, St. Thomas and St. John saw beneficial rainfall overall, and vegetation has revived after Erin. However, farmers on St. Thomas have said that they are still enduring dry conditions and reduced groundwater. On St. Croix, agriculturalists continue to face challenges.
“Many farmers are grateful for the intermittent rains,” the report stated regarding St. Croix. “However, vegetation is still showing signs of lingering dryness, and livestock farmers are culling livestock and preparing for the fall planting of row and specialty crops.”
What Comes Next?
Looking ahead to the near future, forecasters expect more precipitation, but also very warm temperatures. The report noted that while conditions could remain dry across portions of both U.S. territories, “no widespread drought is expected to develop in the short term.”
“The North American Multi-Model Ensemble for fall and early winter, from October to December 2025, predicts about a 50% chance of slightly wetter-than-normal conditions for Puerto Rico and the Virgin Islands, and a greater than 70% chance of warmer-than-normal temperatures.
“Drought might develop over the next three months in portions of east-interior Puerto Rico, while Moderate Drought (D1) conditions may continue for Saint Croix in the U.S. Virgin Islands, according to the NOAA Climate Prediction Center’s current Seasonal Drought Outlook.”
Stay Informed About the Weather
Residents and agriculturalists can stay updated on the latest drought information on the NIDIS website.
Weather information is available from the NWS, the NHC, and NOAA. Additionally, the local weather forecast for the U.S. Virgin Islands is regularly updated on the Source Weather Page and VI Source YouTube Channel. A weekly Tropical Outlook article from the Source is also published throughout hurricane season to provide in-depth updates. Residents and visitors can find additional weather alerts and preparedness information from the Virgin Islands Territorial Emergency Management Agency.
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