The 2025 Atlantic hurricane season is shaping up to be potentially busy, with forecasters at the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration predicting above-average tropical activity during the organization’s official outlook released Thursday.
NOAA unveiled its forecast at the Jefferson Parish Emergency Operations Center in Jefferson, Louisiana, a site symbolically chosen to mark 20 years since Hurricane Katrina devastated the region in August 2005. Representatives from NOAA and the National Weather Service provided remarks during Thursday’s briefing.
“NOAA’s outlook for the 2025 Atlantic hurricane season, which goes from June 1 to November 30, predicts a 30 percent chance of a near-normal season, a 60 percent chance of an above-normal season, and a 10 percent chance of a below-normal season,” according to information posted to NOAA’s official website.
“The agency is forecasting a range of 13 to 19 total named storms with winds of 39 mph or higher. Of those, six to 10 are forecast to become hurricanes with winds of 74 mph or higher, including three to five major hurricanes of category 3, 4, or 5, with winds of 111 mph or higher. NOAA has a 70 percent confidence in these ranges,” NOAA continued.
Why Does NOAA Expect a Busy 2025 Hurricane Season?
NOAA explained the following reasons for increased tropical development this year, such as anomalously warm water temperatures across the Atlantic Ocean and the potential for reduced wind shear due to the current cycle of the “El Niño-Southern Oscillation.”
“The season is expected to be above normal due to a confluence of factors, including continued ENSO-neutral conditions, warmer than average ocean temperatures, forecasts for weak wind shear, and the potential for higher activity from the West African Monsoon, a primary starting point for Atlantic hurricanes. All of these elements tend to favor tropical storm formation,” NOAA said.
“The high activity era continues in the Atlantic Basin, featuring high heat content in the ocean and reduced trade winds. The higher-heat content provides more energy to fuel storm development, while weaker winds allow the storms to develop without disruption.
“This hurricane season also features the potential for a northward shift of the West African monsoon, producing tropical waves that seed some of the strongest and most long-lived Atlantic storms,” NOAA explained.
A previous Source article explained that, during a La Niña cycle, the ocean waters across the equatorial Pacific Ocean cool significantly, affecting global weather. During La Niña, wind shear – a change in wind direction and velocity with height in the atmosphere – also typically decreases in the Atlantic Ocean. A reduction in wind shear can favor cyclone development. This pattern is the opposite of El Niño, a warming of the equatorial Pacific, which usually increases wind shear in the Atlantic Ocean, helping to rip apart storms and prevent hurricane formation and intensification.
“Scientists call [the two opposing climate patterns of El Niño and La Niña] the ‘El Niño-Southern Oscillation’ cycle. El Niño and La Niña can both have global impacts on weather, wildfires, ecosystems, and economies,” according to NOAA.
A neutral phase of ENSO occurs when neither El Niño nor La Niña is happening, and this phase may occur during at least part of this year’s hurricane season, helping to reduce wind shear and prime the atmosphere for cyclones to develop.
“ENSO-neutral refers to periods when neither El Niño nor La Niña is present,” according to information from the NWS. “These periods often coincide with the transition between El Niño and La Niña events. During ENSO-neutral periods, the ocean temperatures, tropical rainfall patterns, and atmospheric winds over the equatorial Pacific Ocean are near the long-term average,” the NWS explained.
A previous interview between the Source and Alex DaSilva, AccuWeather’s lead hurricane expert, provided more insight about how an ENSO-neutral pattern can influence weather across the Atlantic.
DaSilva explained the phases of ENSO, including how an ENSO-neutral phase could still result in favorable conditions for cyclonic development.
“La Niña conditions may still linger in the early part of the tropical season; however, a transition to ENSO-neutral by summer is expected,” DaSilva explained. “The neutral phase ENSO is then forecast to continue through most of the hurricane season,” he continued.
“While La Niña typically yields a more active hurricane season in the Atlantic Ocean due to less frequent vertical wind shear, the neutral phase of ENSO can also contribute to an active season but to a lesser extent,” DaSilva cautioned. “Research has found that La Niña and neutral years are usually very close in the number of storms that each phase can produce, with La Niña years typically producing the most cyclones,” DaSilva stated.
“At this point, we are leaning toward either ENSO remaining neutral for a majority of the season or a weak La Niña to form in the late summer or fall,” DaSilva said. “A transition into an El Niño this hurricane season seems unlikely,” he continued.
Preparing for Hurricane Season
NOAA’s press briefing emphasized the importance of hurricane preparedness. Ken Graham, director of the NWS, urged the public not to focus solely on a hurricane’s category but on the potential impacts. He noted that every Category 5 hurricane that struck the United States in recorded history was classified as a tropical storm or even less intense just three days before landfall as a major hurricane.
“Every Category 5 storm to ever hit this country was a tropical storm or less three days prior,” Graham stressed. “The big ones that hit this country are fast,” he warned.
During Thursday’s press conference, NOAA provided information regarding updates to forecasting tools, including details about tropical outlooks that will now be issued up to three weeks into the future.
“NOAA’s Climate Prediction Center’s Global Tropical Hazards Outlook, which provides advance notice of potential tropical cyclone risks, has been extended from two weeks to three weeks to provide additional time for preparation and response,” NOAA stated.
A previous interview between the Source and Jamie Rhome, deputy director of the National Hurricane Center, included additional information about upgrades to forecasting products available from NHC and NOAA.
Weather Forecast Information
The NOAA forecast follows similar seasonal forecasts that were recently released by AccuWeather and Colorado State University’s Tropical Meteorology Project, who have also predicted a potentially busy season. USVI visitors are encouraged to prepare now, before any cyclones develop, especially with uncertainty surrounding federal cuts to weather service operations and the Federal Emergency Management Agency.
In addition to obtaining weather information from the NHC, the NWS, and NOAA, the local weather forecast for the U.S. Virgin Islands is regularly updated on the Source Weather Page and VI Source YouTube Channel. Individuals can also find helpful weather information and alerts from the Virgin Islands Territorial Emergency Management Agency
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