The National Hurricane Center is tracking a tropical wave currently moving across the Central Tropical Atlantic. While development chances are low, the disturbance could bring unsettled weather to the USVI and Puerto Rico by Friday.
The Source contacted Carlos Anselmi-Molina-Molina, a lead meteorologist at the National Weather Service in San Juan, Puerto Rico, to obtain more information about this disturbance and any possible impacts to the U.S. Virgin Islands and Puerto Rico.
“A tropical wave is currently located over the central tropical Atlantic and is being monitored by the NHC,” Anselmi-Molina said. “It is producing disorganized showers and thunderstorms, and environmental conditions are marginally conducive for development, with a low 10% chance of formation noted over the next seven days as it moves west-northwestward at around 15 to 20 mph,” Anselmi-Molina explained.
According to information from the NHC and the NWS, the tropical wave in the Atlantic has a relatively short period of opportunity for possible strengthening before moving into an area less conducive to cyclonic development.
Adam Douty, a senior meteorologist at AccuWeather, shared the following information about the tropical wave in comments provided to the Source on Sunday.
“The tropical wave in the central Atlantic has a very small window until Monday or Tuesday of this week to become better organized into a tropical depression before it encounters less favorable conditions for tropical development as it approaches the Lesser Antilles midweek,” Douty stated. “Even though it does have a brief window for development, the overall risk that this does form into a tropical depression remains low,” he added.
“There is a little dry air and Saharan dust that the tropical wave will be battling against. However, the primary limiting factor for development beyond Tuesday will be an increase in wind shear,” Douty said.
Regardless of development, the NWS in San Juan warned that the tropical disturbance may bring rainfall and thunderstorms to the local region toward the end of the week.
“The wave is expected to arrive near the Virgin Islands around Friday, with its trailing moisture extending through at least Saturday,” according to Anselmi-Molina.
“At this stage, as the wave is projected to arrive late this upcoming workweek, there is significant uncertainty in the forecast, and we must closely monitor its development,” Anselmi-Molina said.
Additional Weather-Related Concerns
For the next several days, the main weather-related threats that the USVI and Puerto Rico face include the continuation of gusty easterly winds, warm temperatures, and an elevated level of Saharan dust in the atmosphere. Periodic showers and thunderstorms will also be possible.
“We have moderate confidence that moderate to high concentrations of Saharan dust particles will move across the region between Monday and Tuesday, so we may see hazy skies and reduced air quality on those days,” Anselmi-Molina explained.
“For Tuesday, a weak easterly disturbance is forecast to bring more frequent passing showers across the islands, although the dry air associated with Saharan dust is expected to weaken it,” he noted.
Very warm temperatures are also anticipated, and visitors and residents across the local islands are advised to stay hydrated and cool to prevent heat-related illnesses.
“The excessive heat trend is expected to persist throughout much of the forecast period, particularly between Tuesday and Thursday,” Anselmi-Molina said.
Anselmi-Molina also reminded residents and visitors to be mindful of the possibility of wind-driven choppy seas and dangerous rip currents over the coming days.
“Mariners can expect moderate to locally fresh easterly winds from Tuesday onward, creating choppy seas,” Anselmi-Molina cautioned. “Additionally, for the beachgoers, a moderate rip current risk will persist, particularly along the exposed beaches of St Croix’s eastern half, spreading to the north- and east-facing beaches of the northern Virgin Islands from the middle of the week onward,” he added.
Stay Informed About Weather Events
The Atlantic hurricane season lasts until Nov. 30, with the climatological peak of the season occurring in mid-September. USVI residents and visitors are encouraged to continue to be prepared.
In addition to obtaining weather information from the NWS and NOAA, the local weather forecast for the U.S. Virgin Islands is regularly updated on the Source Weather Page and VI Source YouTube Channel. Individuals can also find helpful weather information and alerts from the Virgin Islands Territorial Emergency Management Agency.
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