The National Hurricane Center is monitoring Invest 95L, a disturbance in the central Atlantic. The system has a medium chance of development within 48 hours and a high chance over the next seven days. Forecasters say a tropical depression could form this week as the system moves generally toward the Caribbean.
Tropical Wave Expected to Move Across Atlantic
“A broad area of low pressure associated with a low-latitude tropical wave continues to produce a large area of disorganized cloudiness and showers several hundred miles southwest of the Cabo Verde Islands,” according to an update on Sunday evening from the NHC.
“Environmental conditions appear conducive for additional development of this system, and a tropical depression is likely to form by midweek as it moves quickly across the central tropical Atlantic, approaching the Leeward Islands by the latter part of this week. Interests there should monitor the progress of Invest 95L,” the NHC explained
An “invest” is an area under investigation by the National Hurricane Center for possible development. If this system intensifies into a tropical storm with maximum sustained winds of at least 39 mph, it would be named “Jerry,” becoming the tenth named cyclone of the 2025 Atlantic hurricane season.
Where Will Invest 95L Travel?
Several widely used computer forecast models suggest that if Invest 95L organizes, it could ultimately strengthen into a tropical storm or a hurricane.
However, the exact track of the tropical wave remains uncertain, and any potential impacts would likely occur during the second half of the week. Atmospheric conditions could steer the system away from the Leeward Islands, or it may continue westward and move across portions of the islands.
In an update Sunday, meteorologists at the National Weather Service in San Juan, Puerto Rico, noted that an increase in moisture is expected by the end of the week as Invest 95L moves closer to the region. However, the NWS said forecast models remain inconsistent regarding the tropical wave’s track and potential impacts on the local islands.
While there is no immediate cyclone threat to the U.S. Virgin Islands or Puerto Rico, residents and visitors are urged to remain prepared and monitor official updates closely.
“At this time, there is high uncertainty in terms of the trajectory and intensity of this tropical wave,” the NWS said. “Residents and visitors are urged to continue monitoring the progress of this system as it moves over the Atlantic Ocean.”
Local Weather Information and Staying Informed
Finally, the NWS in San Juan reminded individuals on Sunday about weather-related threats that will continue to affect the USVI and Puerto Rico over the coming days, including the chance of rainfall and thunderstorms associated with a separate tropical wave moving through the Caribbean, and very warm temperatures, with the potential for heat alerts.
Additionally, marine conditions will remain hazardous for the next few days due to a powerful swell affecting the local islands. Multiple marine alerts remain in effect for areas of Puerto Rico and the USVI until at least Tuesday.
It is crucial to remember that the forecast can change very quickly. The Atlantic hurricane season officially ends on Nov. 30, and USVI residents and visitors are encouraged to continue to remain prepared. Weather information is available from the NWS, the NHC, and NOAA.
The local weather forecast for the U.S. Virgin Islands is regularly updated on the Source Weather Page and VI Source YouTube Channel. A weekly Tropical Outlook article from the Source is also published throughout hurricane season to provide in-depth updates.
Residents and visitors can find additional weather alerts and preparedness information from the Virgin Islands Territorial Emergency Management Agency.
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