The National Hurricane Center is monitoring Invest 92L, a tropical wave in the Atlantic, with a high chance of strengthening into a tropical depression this week. Meanwhile, meteorologists warn of elevated flood risk in the U.S. Virgin Islands and Puerto Rico this week as weather systems bring showers and thunderstorms.
Tropical Wave Monitored by NHC
As of an 8 p.m. update from the NHC on Monday, Invest 92L was located across the central Atlantic and was expected to organize into a tropical depression or a tropical storm in the coming days. The system has been assigned a medium, 60% chance of development in the next 48 hours and a high, 90% chance of intensification over the next seven days.
An invest is an area under investigation by the NHC for possible cyclonic development, and the NHC defines a tropical depression as “a tropical cyclone with maximum sustained winds of 38 mph or less.”
“A broad area of low pressure is located about midway between the Windward Islands and the coast of West Africa,” the NHC said Monday evening. “This system is showing signs of organization and is expected to move through a favorable environment for further development. A tropical depression or tropical storm is likely to form by the middle to latter part of this week while the system moves west-northwestward at 10 to 15 mph over the central tropical Atlantic,” the NHC continued.
If the disturbance is ultimately able to organize further and ultimately reach tropical storm strength, with maximum sustained winds of at least 39 mph, it will be designated “Gabrielle,” the seventh named cyclone of this year’s Atlantic hurricane season.
As of Monday evening, many forecast models suggest Invest 92L will pass to the northeast of the local islands, though this outcome is not guaranteed. Residents and visitors in the U.S. Virgin Islands and Puerto Rico are urged to continue monitoring updates on the system closely as the forecast can change quickly.
Local National Weather Service Update
In addition to closely watching Invest 92L, the National Weather Service in San Juan, Puerto Rico, has warned that the local islands will experience an elevated threat of rainfall and localized flooding this week, especially between Wednesday and Thursday.
On Monday morning, the Source contacted Cecille Villanueva-Birriel, a lead forecaster at the NWS, for further details regarding the local forecast.
Villanueva-Birriel explained that the midweek wet weather expected across the U.S. Virgin Islands and Puerto Rico is not directly tied to Invest 92L, but instead stems from a combination of factors, including an upper-level low-pressure system and a tropical wave moving across the islands.
“By Wednesday, a strong tropical wave will approach the region, along with an upper-level low staying north of the islands,” the NWS said in an update posted on Monday. “Showers and thunderstorms are expected to increase in coverage, and although the rain is not expected to cover all areas or to be raining all day, areas that have received heavy rain in the last couple of days will be especially prone to urban and river flooding as well as landslides in steep terrain,” the NWS warned.
“Flash flooding cannot be ruled out, and it is important to consider the risk of gusty winds and lightning strikes associated with thunderstorms that develop.”
Villanueva-Birriel noted that two to three inches of rainfall are expected across the U.S. Virgin Islands between Wednesday and Thursday, with locally higher amounts possible in both territories.
She emphasized that meteorologists at the NWS will be monitoring the track of Invest 92L closely. Even if the system remains to the northeast of the islands, marine conditions may become hazardous due to the storm’s passage.
Finally, forecasters cautioned that warm temperatures will persist, and heat alerts may be issued across the region.
Watching the Weather
It is crucial to remember that the forecast can change very quickly. USVI residents and visitors are encouraged to continue to remain prepared. Weather information is available from the NWS, the NHC, and NOAA.
Additionally, the local weather forecast for the U.S. Virgin Islands is regularly updated on the Source Weather Page and VI Source YouTube Channel. A weekly Tropical Outlook article from the Source is also published throughout hurricane season to provide in-depth updates. Residents and visitors can find additional weather alerts and preparedness information from the Virgin Islands Territorial Emergency Management Agency.
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