Meteorologists are warning that planned reductions in critical weather resources, including satellite data and National Weather Service staffing, could hinder forecasts as the Atlantic hurricane season nears its peak. Experts say the cuts may leave forecasters with fewer tools to track storms and issue life-saving alerts.
Federal cuts have affected multiple areas across the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration and the NWS since the new administration took office in January. Among them is the Defense Department’s plan to discontinue sharing microwave data from the Defense Meteorological Satellite Program with NOAA, with the cutoff set for July 31 due to reported cybersecurity risks.
The three aging satellites have long provided critical views of storm structure, allowing forecasters to see beneath cloud tops and monitor hurricanes overnight. While there are ongoing discussions about whether the data will indeed cease to transmit to NOAA, losing that capability could leave forecasters less able to detect key indications of a strengthening storm, including the rapid intensification of cyclones.
The Source spoke with weather experts, including former NOAA leaders and veteran meteorologists, for insights on how these changes could affect forecasting, preparedness, and public safety during one of the busiest periods of the Atlantic hurricane season. The Source also received comments from the Secretary of the Air Force Office of Public Affairs and NOAA, who sought to reassure the public that weather forecasting data will continue to be available even when DMSP satellites stop sharing data with NOAA.
Meteorologist John Morales on Critical Weather Data Reduction
John Morales, founder of the consulting firm ClimaData and current Hurricane Specialist at WTVJ NBC6 in Miami, has spent more than four decades in meteorology as a civil servant at the NWS and in broadcast meteorology. Morales provided detailed information to the Source about why satellite data is crucial for forecasters and he expressed concern about not having access to the information from these satellites.
“When you look at satellite pictures during a television weathercast, you’re either looking at what the plain eye can see from space, known as the visible spectrum, or an infrared picture,” Morales said. “Infrared allows satellites to ‘see’ clouds at night. Microwaves have even longer wavelengths than infrared, which lets the Special Sensor Microwave Imager/Sounder penetrate clouds and reveal what is happening underneath,” Morales explained.
That ability to peer beneath cloud tops, Morales said, is critical for hurricane specialists. “With two-thirds of all Atlantic storms beyond the reach of Hurricane Hunter planes, SSMIS does yeoman’s work in monitoring storms in real time,” he said. “By accurately locating a hurricane’s center — especially in fledgling storms where the eye hasn’t cleared out —SSMIS provides the precise data that forecast models need to project a storm’s path and intensity.”
Morales warned that if SSMIS goes offline July 31, forecasters will lose about half their microwave data scans. “While there are other microwave sensors in polar orbit, the loss of SSMIS means a 50% reduction in data,” he said. “Since models aren’t always correct and hurricane forecasters aren’t either, not being able to track a storm’s lifecycle continuously can lead to unpleasant, costly, and potentially deadly surprises.”
Microwave satellites are not the only resource facing reductions. Morales pointed to radiosondes, which are instrument packages that are carried aloft by weather balloons, as another critical tool now being used less frequently.
“These sensors collect temperature, humidity, pressure, and wind data, giving meteorologists a vertical profile of the atmosphere twice daily over strategic locations,” Morales said. “On days when these profiles go missing, forecast quality suffers. We’ve already been missing about 18% of them since NWS cuts began.”
He also emphasized the human toll of staffing shortages. “The NWS was already short-staffed before the new administration came into power,” Morales said. “I know of meteorologists in charge who have had to cover operational shifts, including overnights, just to keep their NWS offices functioning. Now, with hundreds more NOAA and NWS employees gone, offices running on skeleton crews not only risk data loss but also jeopardize critical roles like Warning Coordination Meteorologists. That vacancy in San Antonio drew questions after the recent Texas flooding tragedy,” Morales noted.
Morales voiced concern about how these changes may erode public confidence in forecasts. “If I myself can’t be as confident as I used to be in my forecasts because of missing data and degraded models, how can the public maintain the trust we’ve worked so hard to build over the decades?”
Robert Atlas on Staffing and Research Lab Cuts
Robert Atlas, Ph.D., former Director of NOAA’s Atlantic Oceanographic and Meteorological Laboratory, is a leading expert on observing systems and hurricane prediction. Over his career, Atlas has served in roles including head of NASA’s Data Assimilation Office and as NOAA’s director of Quantitative Assessment of Observing Systems.
In comments to the Source, Atlas confirmed that data provided to NOAA from the Defense Meteorological Satellite Program’s Special Sensor Microwave Imager/Sounder is helpful to forecasters. However, he said it is not critical for global numerical weather prediction. “There are 15 other observing systems that have larger impact than the DMSP,” Atlas said. “However, the data can be important to researchers and operational forecasters monitoring hurricanes.”
Atlas emphasized the importance of other key datasets and tools that forecasters rely on. “Geostationary imagery, scatterometer data, and both the NOAA and Air Force Hurricane Hunter aircraft observations are the most useful to the forecasters,” he said. “For numerical forecast models, all of the NOAA and European infrared and microwave sounders, atmospheric motion vector winds from geostationary satellites, ocean gliders, and conventional surface and upper-air reports have a large impact.”
Still, it is not only observational systems that are under pressure. Atlas warned that cuts to NOAA’s research laboratories could have dire consequences for forecast accuracy. “If NOAA’s research laboratories are eliminated, none of the advances in forecasting being worked on would become operational. Critical observations would not be made, and there would be a dramatic decrease in forecast accuracy,” Atlas said. “For example, if AOML were eliminated, there would be a 20 to 40% decrease in hurricane forecast accuracy, resulting in loss of life and increased economic losses of approximately $5 billion for each major hurricane making landfall.”
When asked about recent events like the recent Texas Hill Country floods, Atlas said sustaining these resources is crucial to improving lead time and accuracy for forecasts and warnings. He said that reductions in observational data and modeling capacity could also undermine public confidence in forecasts. “Such reductions would decrease the accuracy of forecasts, and the public would have less confidence in the warnings. More people might not take the necessary precautions,” Atlas stated.
“The cuts to NOAA’s AOML would lead to less accurate hurricane forecasts if they go into effect,” he added. “And the costs to the economy would be 20 to 50 times larger than the savings from closing AOML,” Atlas warned.
Meteorologist James Franklin on Operational Gaps and Hurricane Forecasting
James Franklin, a meteorologist with decades of experience at NOAA, was also the former Branch Chief of the National Hurricane Center’s Hurricane Specialist Unit. His leadership at the NHC gave him deep insight into the tools and staffing needed to track dangerous storms and issue timely warnings to the public.
Franklin shared his concerns about the impact of reduced staffing, potential satellite data loss, and how new artificial intelligence tools may—and may not—help fill the gaps.
On the growing strain inside NOAA and NWS offices, Franklin pointed out the possible effects of understaffing, particularly at local weather forecasting offices, which help to train emergency managers and communicate with disaster officials during an emergency.
“The local Weather Forecasting Offices take the forecasts from the NHC and break that down to share local impacts,” Franklin explained. “When a WFO is short-staffed, then there are fewer people to communicate risks to their local decision makers, such as people who have to make evacuation decisions,” he said.
Franklin also noted that due to federal cuts that have already been implemented, several operations, including the launching of weather balloons to collect data, have already been occurring less frequently due to fewer staff.
Franklin also voiced concern over the potential loss of microwave data from the Defense Meteorological Satellite Program being shared with NOAA. At nighttime, when it is more difficult for a forecaster to view a disturbance, the microwave satellites are able to peer into a cyclone’s internal structure to provide a view of what is happening.
According to Franklin, “The loss of DMSP’s microwave data increases the chance that a forecaster is going to be surprised, or they were tracking a storm in the wrong place. It increases the chance that something’s going to go wrong with their forecast.”
Franklin acknowledged that other tools will still be available to meteorologists, but they may not be as useful as the DMSP microwave data. He said that it will be more difficult to view structures such as a hurricane’s eyewall and rainbands without the DMSP satellites.
“The substitutes are really not satisfactory, because they are lower resolution,” Franklin said. “It is all going to be a blur in some of the other instruments that are still up, and they won’t be useful,” he stated.
Franklin also expressed concern about the potential for federal cuts to NOAA’s Oceanic and Atmospheric Research facilities, which he wrote extensively about on his Substack website.
Despite these challenges, Franklin sees a glimmer of hope in emerging technologies such as artificial intelligence weather forecasting. He has been evaluating several AI-based hurricane models as part of his current work and is optimistic about their potential.
“There’s some interesting stuff with AI,” Franklin said. “I’ve had the opportunity to evaluate a number of AI hurricane models, including one from Google DeepMind.”
“A couple of the models showed really remarkable cyclone track skills, not much on the intensity side, but the track skill was interesting. The NHC now has real-time access to the Google DeepMind model, which will be evaluated this year,” Franklin continued.
“That’s neat and encouraging, and it surprised me to see how good the models performed in tests so far this year,” he added.
Still, Franklin cautioned against seeing AI as a cure-all.
“I don’t think AI is going to solve all the problems,” he admitted. “I think it’s going to have a hard time predicting hurricane intensity in particular, and that is probably where we need to make the most progress.
“However, I’m delighted to see that AI models are continuing an improving trend of cyclone tracking which will allow us to get better track forecasts, but I don’t think it will be the answer to everything in terms of hurricane forecasting. I think it will be another valuable addition to the toolbox.”
When asked about his thoughts regarding storms affecting the U.S. Virgin Islands during this year’s hurricane season, Franklin said that what is most important is to focus on being prepared.
“Prepare like this is the year you’re going to get hit by a hurricane,” he advised. “Every year you need to prepare.”
NOAA and Air Force Respond to Concerns
In statements aimed at addressing expert concerns, NOAA and the Department of Defense emphasized that weather forecasting will remain robust, even as the DMSP program transitions out of service.
“The DMSP is a single dataset in a robust suite of hurricane forecasting and modeling tools in the NWS portfolio,” NOAA said in a statement provided to the Source. “Current forecast models continue to draw from a range of observational systems, including geostationary satellites like Geostationary Operational Environmental Satellite, polar-orbiting satellites such as NOAA’s Joint Polar Satellite System, and the European EUMETSAT’s MetOp series, as well as aircraft reconnaissance, surface observations, buoy networks, radiosondes, and ground-based radar sites in the U.S. and neighboring countries,” the NOAA statement explained.
“The Advanced Technology Microwave Sounder, currently flying on NOAA’s JPSS, provides the richest, most accurate satellite weather observations available. NOAA’s data sources are fully capable of providing a complete suite of cutting-edge data and models that ensure the gold-standard weather forecasting the American people deserve,” NOAA continued.
The DoD, which includes the U.S. Air Force and U.S. Space Force, also sought to ease concerns about the loss of DMSP data with comments provided by Victoria B. Porto, Lt. Col., USAF, with the Secretary of the Air Force Office of Public Affairs.
“DMSP is planned to be operational through September 2026. While the processed data will no longer be provided by a DoD meteorological and oceanographic center, it will continue to be delivered to DoD users via direct downlink terminals in support of worldwide operations.
“The U.S. Space Force is transitioning from DMSP to a modernized environmental satellite architecture. The first Weather System Follow-On–Microwave (WSF-M) satellite, launched in 2024, became operational in April 2025. WSF-M provides enhanced tracking of ocean surface vector wind and tropical cyclone intensity. By late 2025 or early 2026, it will include technical work to deliver the data directly to NOAA,” according to the DoD.
Looking Ahead
As the 2025 Atlantic hurricane season approaches its busiest months, experts and officials alike acknowledge the vital role of sustained investments in observational tools and personnel. While NOAA and the DoD express confidence in the resilience of current systems, veteran meteorologists warn that even incremental losses in data or staffing can have cascading effects on forecast accuracy and public trust. The coming months may prove a critical test of how well the nation’s forecasting infrastructure can adapt to these changes.
USVI visitors and residents are encouraged to prepare for hurricanes now, before any cyclones are expected to affect the territory.
In addition to obtaining weather information from the NHC, the NWS, and NOAA, the local weather forecast for the U.S. Virgin Islands is regularly updated on the Source Weather Page and VI Source YouTube Channel. Individuals can also find helpful weather information and alerts from the Virgin Islands Territorial Emergency Management Agency.
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