Colorado State University’s updated hurricane forecast indicates a slight decrease in expected cyclones this season. Meanwhile, the National Weather Service in San Juan, Puerto Rico, says another round of Saharan dust will affect the local area over the next few days.
In its outlook released on July 9, the Tropical Cyclones, Radar, Atmospheric Modeling, and Software Team at Colorado State University slightly lowered its forecast for the 2025 Atlantic hurricane season due to higher-than-expected wind shear over the Caribbean, which tends to suppress hurricane activity. However, CSU also noted that a neutral phase of the El Niño Southern Oscillation and warmer sea surface temperatures in parts of the Atlantic still create an environment favorable for hurricane development.
“We have decreased our forecast slightly and now call for a slightly above-normal 2025 Atlantic basin hurricane season,” the July CSU report said. “The primary reason for the slight decrease in the outlook is both observed and predicted high levels of Caribbean shear. High levels of Caribbean shear in June and July are typically associated with less active hurricane seasons,” CSU continued.
“However, we also anticipate the tropical Pacific to be characterized by ENSO-neutral conditions,” CSU stated. “Sea surface temperatures across the eastern and central Atlantic are slightly warmer than normal, but not as warm as they were last year at this time. A warmer-than-normal tropical Atlantic combined with likely ENSO-neutral conditions typically provides a more conducive dynamic and thermodynamic environment for hurricane formation and intensification. We anticipate a slightly above-average probability for major hurricanes making landfall along the continental United States coastline and in the Caribbean,” CSU explained.
CSU now expects 16 named cyclones to form throughout the 2025 Atlantic hurricane season. The team had initially called for 17 named storms in its previous forecasts, which were released earlier this year in April and in June. Three named storms have already formed in the Atlantic basin so far this year.
“Information obtained through June indicates that the 2025 Atlantic hurricane season will have activity slightly above the 1991 through 2020 average,” according to the CSU report. “We estimate that 2025 will have 16 named storms (average is 14.4), 80 named storm days (average is 69.4), 8 hurricanes (average is 7.2), 30 hurricane days (average is 27.0), 3 major (Category 3, 4, or 5) hurricanes (average is 3.2) and 8 major hurricane days (average is 7.4). The probability of U.S. and Caribbean major hurricane landfall is estimated to be slightly above its long-period average,” the report said.
Key Factors Still in Place for a Busy Season
While it’s impossible to predict precisely how a hurricane season will unfold, meteorologists and researchers base their seasonal outlooks on a combination of current atmospheric and oceanic conditions and decades of historical data to help project what could occur.
Forecasters closely monitor several key indicators, including sea surface temperatures and the El Niño–Southern Oscillation cycle, which encompasses the El Niño, La Nina, and ENSO-neutral phases and can significantly affect wind shear across the Atlantic Ocean. Experts also analyze forecasts for the West African Monsoon, which helps determine the frequency and strength of tropical waves emerging off Africa’s west coast. Many of these environmental signals appear favorable for tropical cyclone development this season.
“The tropical Pacific is currently characterized by ENSO-neutral conditions,” the CSU update explained. “Our best estimate is that ENSO-neutral conditions will likely persist throughout the hurricane season. Sea surface temperatures in the eastern and central tropical Atlantic are slightly warmer than normal, although not as warm as they were last year at this time,” CSU continued.
“A warmer-than-normal Atlantic combined with ENSO-neutral conditions typically favors an active Atlantic hurricane season via dynamic and thermodynamic conditions that are conducive for developing hurricanes, such as low vertical wind shear and increased upper ocean heat content,” CSU stated.
The CSU report stressed that it only takes one cyclone to cause tremendous damage, and preparations should be in place.
“As with all hurricane seasons, coastal residents are reminded that it only takes one hurricane making landfall to make it an active season,” CSU advised. “Thorough preparations should be made every season, regardless of predicted activity,” CSU added.
Local Weather Updates: More Saharan Dust Expands Across the Territory
As of Thursday, the National Hurricane Center does not predict cyclonic development across the Atlantic basin for the next seven days.
However, while no cyclones are anticipated to form near the USVI or Puerto Rico in the immediate future, the National Weather Service in San Juan has warned that other weather phenomena are forecast to affect the region, including more Saharan dust throughout the weekend.
“Moderate to high concentrations of Saharan dust are expected to return late tonight through at least Sunday, resulting in hazy skies, reduced visibility, and poor air quality,” the NWS said in a Thursday morning update.
Although the dry air and desert sand can help to suppress the development of tropical cyclones, individuals are encouraged to be mindful of the potential health impacts caused by the dust, including respiratory issues.
In addition to the dusty conditions, residents and visitors in the U.S. Virgin Islands and Puerto Rico may also see spotty showers and thunderstorms, very warm temperatures, and breezy weather. Gusty winds may create choppy, wind-driven seas and elevate the risk of rip currents along many beaches, particularly on north- and east-facing coastlines across both territories.
The NWS added that a tropical wave could move through the Caribbean in the middle of next week. However, most of the associated moisture is forecast to remain south of the local islands.
“By midweek next week, a tropical wave is expected to approach the forecast area, bringing increased tropical moisture,” the NWS said. “However, the most intense part of the wave is expected to pass south of Puerto Rico and the U.S. Virgin Islands. Nevertheless, scattered showers and thunderstorms are anticipated each afternoon, especially across interior and western areas,” the NWS continued.
USVI residents and visitors can find weather information from the NHC, the NWS, and NOAA. Additionally, the Virgin Islands Territorial Emergency Management Agency offers residents and visitors the opportunity to sign up for emergency alerts. Also, the local weather forecast for the U.S. Virgin Islands is regularly updated on the Source Weather Page and VI Source YouTube Channel.
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