The National Hurricane Center says no tropical cyclone formation is expected in the Atlantic basin over the next several days — a calm stretch during the climatological peak of the hurricane season. However, the NHC is watching a tropical wave expected to emerge off the west coast of Africa in the coming days, which could slowly organize as it moves west.

Why is the Atlantic Basin Quiet?

As was reported by the Source on Sunday, former Invest 91L, the most recent tropical wave that had been under investigation by the NHC, succumbed to dry air and wind shear, which prohibited the system from organizing.

Meteorologists point to persistent Saharan dust, dry air, and strong upper-level wind shear as the main factors suppressing tropical cyclone formation, even as sea surface temperatures remain well above average.

While the Atlantic remains quiet at the Sept. 10 peak of the hurricane season, forecasters don’t expect the lull to last. AccuWeather points to exceptionally warm waters and the eventual easing of dry air and wind shear as factors likely to spark renewed tropical activity later in September. Experts caution that once conditions turn more favorable, storms could form quickly.

Indeed, the NHC is already highlighting a tropical wave expected to move off the coast of Africa in the next couple of days, assigning it a zero percent chance of development over the next 48 hours and a low, 20% chance of development over the next seven days.

AccuWeather noted in a recent article that having no tropical storms or hurricanes in the Atlantic on Sept. 10 has only happened three times in the past 30 years. Since 1950, there have been just eight years in total without a named storm on that date.

Colorado State University’s Tropical Cyclones, Radar, Atmospheric Modeling, and Software Team released its latest two-week outlook on Sept. 3, and the report also points to a likely increase in activity. Researchers at CSU assigned a 65% chance of near-normal cyclone activity through mid-September and a 20% chance of above-normal activity during this time period. However, CSU noted that improving atmospheric conditions favoring cyclones could support more frequent storm formation during the second half of the month.

Among the environmental conditions that could aid in tropical cyclogenesis is the possible approach of a Madden-Julian Oscillation wave in the coming weeks, enhancing development potential across the Atlantic basin.

The National Weather Service defines the MJO as “an eastward-moving disturbance of clouds, rainfall, winds and pressure that traverses the planet in the tropics and returns to its initial starting point in 30 to 60 days on average.”

“The MJO is forecast to propagate eastward towards the Western Hemisphere and then Africa over the next two weeks,” the CSU report said. “When the MJO is enhancing convection across Africa, Atlantic tropical cyclone activity tends to be above average. Vertical wind shear anomalies are forecast to become more conducive as the two-week forecast period progresses,” CSU added.

Hurricane Expert Weighs In

Alex DaSilva, AccuWeather’s lead hurricane expert, told the Source in an interview last week that the current phase of the El Niño Southern Oscillation may help to create conditions that are favorable for cyclonic development. ENSO, which encompasses El Niño, La Nina and a neutral phase, can influence atmospheric conditions in ways that either enhance or inhibit cyclone formation.

“We continue to trend toward a La Niña phase,” DaSilva said. “Even if one isn’t officially declared this fall, it is looking more and more likely that conditions will still behave like a La Niña. This means fewer periods of wind shear across the Atlantic, especially in October and November. This is what happened last year, and it led to a very active end to the season. I think we can see a very busy end to the 2025 Atlantic hurricane season.”

The Source again connected with DaSilva on Wednesday for an update on what was occurring across the Atlantic. He maintained his prediction of a potentially busy end of the season and noted that — while the next five to seven days may remain relatively quiet —there may be an uptick in tropical activity during the latter part of September.

“We have to monitor the tropics closely as we go toward the second half of the month,” DaSilva said. “I believe some of the wind shear and the dry air that have been holding things back are going to back off a little bit, and that could potentially allow for some development as early as the middle of the month. Meteorologists at AccuWeather have highlighted an area out in the Atlantic for possible development around Sept. 13-16. There is a low risk that it could develop, and then I think we’re going to be seeing more tropical waves emerge after that,” DaSilva noted.

AccuWeather forecasters also highlighted a second area off the east coast of the U.S. mainland during Sept. 13-16, also with a low risk of possible development.

Possible USVI Impacts During the Second Half of Hurricane Season

When asked about the possibility of the U.S. Virgin Islands potentially being affected by a cyclone during the second half of hurricane season, DaSilva said that much will depend on factors including how much dry air remains across the Atlantic.

“The Bermuda High should help to steer any developing storms toward the west, so there is a risk of impacts in the Virgin Islands over the next couple of weeks,” DaSilva predicted. “The big question is going to be the dry air, which could allow for tropical storm formation. I think we will see some reduction in that dry air, so we have to monitor the Virgin Islands very carefully,” he said.

“We expect activity to really pick up in the Atlantic as we go toward the second half of September,” DaSilva continued. “We expect an MJO wave coming through during the middle to second half of September, so that should help to induce additional showers and thunderstorms across the Atlantic basin, which can then develop into named tropical systems. And then, of course, we’re also watching the Gulf and Western Caribbean as well.”

DaSilva told the Source that sea surface temperatures across the basin are very warm, and he added that residents and visitors in the U.S. Virgin Islands should remain prepared for possible tropical systems and avoid letting their guard down as the season progresses. The Atlantic hurricane season will end on Nov. 30, and there is plenty of time remaining for a tropical disturbance to potentially affect the local islands.

“As far as the U.S. Virgin Islands go, you typically need to watch tropical waves through about mid-October,” DaSilva stated. “By late October, it becomes harder for waves coming off Africa to survive that journey. Around mid-October, attention shifts closer to the United States mainland. Cyclones can still develop east of the Lesser Antilles toward the end of hurricane season, but usually after October 15, we focus more on the U.S. coast. So, for the islands, the window of greatest concern generally goes through about mid-October.”

“The key message is that we don’t want people to become complacent,” DaSilva concluded.

NOAA Global Tropics Hazards Outlook

According to a Global Tropics Hazards Outlook released Tuesday, there will be an elevated chance of cyclonic development across portions of the Atlantic basin in the coming weeks. The forecast tool, which is issued every Tuesday by the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration’s Climate Prediction Center, provides insight into potential activity across tropical basins up to three weeks in advance.

In its latest update, NOAA said that areas across the Main Development Region of the Atlantic basin — the zone between the west coast of Africa and the Caribbean — may experience a 20-40% chance of tropical development, with up to a 40-60% chance of cyclogenesis in the far eastern Atlantic during the “Week Two” outlook period, which runs from Sept. 17 until Sept. 23.

A 20-40% chance of development is forecast across the Main Development Region in the “Week Three” outlook, running from Sept. 24 through 30.

Areas across the Western Caribbean Sea and the Gulf are also likely to see an elevated chance of cyclones. Additionally, the Eastern Pacific basin, which continues to remain active, is also expected to experience an increased risk for cyclonic development in the coming weeks.

“Across the Atlantic Main Development Region, tropical waves are predicted to continue to emerge off of Africa, which will have the potential to spin up into tropical cyclones, supporting a broad 20-40% region for Weeks Two and Three, in accordance with an active climatology,” according to the NOAA report.

“The European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts model depicts a particularly strong wave coming off of Africa around Sept. 20, which may have the best chance of quickly developing into a tropical cyclone. Therefore, odds of tropical cyclone formation are increased to 40-60% across the eastern Atlantic during Week Two,” NOAA said.

The latest wave that the NHC says will soon emerge off the west coast of Africa serves as a reminder that even during quiet stretches, conditions in the tropics can change quickly, and new systems may materialize with little notice.

Local Weather Information and Staying Informed

Finally, the National Weather Service in San Juan, Puerto Rico, reminded residents and visitors on Wednesday of ongoing weather-related threats for Puerto Rico and the USVI. Very warm temperatures could prompt heat alerts across the region, while scattered showers and thunderstorms are also expected. In addition, a plume of Saharan dust is forecast to cause a hazy sky across the region until approximately Friday.

The forecast can change very quickly, and USVI residents and visitors are encouraged to continue to remain prepared. Weather information is available from the NWS, the NHC, and NOAA.

Additionally, the local weather forecast for the U.S. Virgin Islands is regularly updated on the Source Weather Page and VI Source YouTube Channel. A weekly Tropical Outlook article from the Source is also published throughout hurricane season to provide in-depth updates. Residents and visitors can find additional weather alerts and preparedness information from the Virgin Islands Territorial Emergency Management Agency.