Two tropical waves moving toward the eastern Caribbean are expected to bring increased moisture and a chance of showers to the U.S. Virgin Islands and Puerto Rico, according to the National Weather Service. Meanwhile, NOAA forecasters are monitoring signs of increasing tropical cyclone development potential across the Atlantic basin heading into August.
On Wednesday, the NWS office in San Juan, Puerto Rico, reported that the first of two tropical waves is expected to move across the region on Thursday, bringing a slight chance of rain and thunderstorms. A stronger wave is forecast to arrive Saturday. While forecast models remain uncertain about the exact timing and location of potential impacts, meteorologists advise residents to prepare for a wet weekend.
“A vigorous tropical wave will bring an unstable weather pattern across Puerto Rico and the U.S. Virgin Islands from Saturday through Sunday,” the NWS said in a Wednesday morning update.
“Abundant moisture associated with this wave will support a wet pattern, with increased cloudiness and a higher frequency of showers and thunderstorms. While there remain discrepancies between the U.S. Global Forecast System and the European Centre for Medium Range Weather Forecasts models regarding the exact timing of the passage of the center of the wave, both models agree on the potential for widespread rainfall,” the NWS said.
“The most significant impacts are expected on Sunday, supported by favorable instability from an upper-level low just northwest of the region,” the NWS said.
The NWS explained that there will be an increased threat of flooding across portions of both U.S. territories due to the incoming precipitation. The NWS also noted that trailing moisture from the tropical wave may cause showers on Monday, and hot and humid conditions should be anticipated.
NOAA Global Tropics Hazards Outlook
Regarding the possibility of additional tropical activity in the next seven days, the National Hurricane Center has not flagged any areas across the Atlantic basin as of Wednesday morning.
However, according to a Global Tropics Hazards Outlook released on Tuesday by the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration’s Climate Prediction Center, tropical development may become more likely in the near future.
The forecast tool offers insight into potential developments across tropical basins up to three weeks in advance. In its latest update, NOAA highlighted areas off the southeastern U.S. and within the Main Development Region — the zone between the west coast of Africa and the Caribbean — as having increased chances for tropical activity in August. The Eastern Pacific basin, which has been active in recent weeks, is also expected to maintain an elevated chance of cyclonic development.
Alex DaSilva, lead hurricane specialist at AccuWeather, shared information about the possibility of an increased chance of cyclonic activity in comments provided to the Source on Wednesday.
“As of Wednesday, it doesn’t look like anything would be ripe for any kind of explosive development, but we will be watching the tropical waves very closely, because the atmosphere overall will become more conducive for development over the next couple of weeks,” DaSilva predicted.
Watching the Tropics
DaSilva noted that AccuWeather meteorologists are currently monitoring several tropical waves moving across the Atlantic Ocean. Among them is a disturbance forecast to bring unsettled weather to the U.S. Virgin Islands and Puerto Rico this weekend. While that system is not expected to significantly intensify before reaching the region, DaSilva explained that conditions may become more favorable for development once it moves away.
“We’re tracking a tropical wave right now that came off Africa about a day or two ago,” said DaSilva. “It’s transitioning across the Atlantic right now, but it’s really having a tough time with a lot of wind shear and dusty, dry air.”
“It is worth noting that the wind shear and dry air have come down a bit since earlier in July, but there’s still quite a bit of dry air across the Atlantic Basin. We have a low chance of development of that tropical wave between Aug. one and 4 as it approaches the Lesser Antilles,” he added.
DaSilva said AccuWeather has highlighted an area near the Virgin Islands for potential development during that same period. “That area still has to be watched, even after August 4, because it could get close to the southeast coast of the U.S., and then maybe try to develop near the Bahamas or Turks and Caicos,” he stated.
DaSilva also emphasized that the most active — and potentially dangerous — period of the Atlantic hurricane season for the U.S. Virgin Islands is just around the corner, with the highest risk typically arriving in early September.
“Statistically, for the Virgin Islands, most of the big hurricane impacts happen in the heart of the season, starting at the beginning of September and into the beginning of October,” DaSilva confirmed. “Afterward, the odds decrease, especially in November. So, it’s the core of the hurricane season that typically has the most activity coming towards the islands.”
“The climatological peak of hurricane season activity is September 10, and that is when we typically see the strongest tropical waves. That’s usually when we see the least amount of Saharan dust and wind shear across the Atlantic basin,” DaSilva noted.
More Tropical Waves Expected
“There are going to be more tropical waves coming across the Atlantic Basin, but we’re going to have to watch to see if there’s still a lot of dust over the next two weeks,” DaSilva explained. “Even if we don’t have a lot of wind shear, if there’s a lot of dust and dry air, it helps to prevent storms from forming and can be a big detriment to tropical systems.”
DaSilva provided an update on the status of the El Niño Southern Oscillation, noting that the current phase of the cycle plays a significant role in the possibility for hurricanes to organize.
“An ENSO-neutral pattern is occurring, and research has found that while the La Nina years typically yield the most tropical activity in the Atlantic, ENSO-neutral years can still yield a lot of tropical activity,” DaSilva cautioned.
“We expect an ENSO-neutral pattern to continue throughout most of the hurricane season, with a possible shift towards La Nina later in the season. While there still could be a storm that impacts the Lesser Antilles and the Virgin Islands in November, typically we look closer to the United States during November or the Western Caribbean,” DaSilva stated.
DaSilva concluded his remarks by urging individuals to remain prepared for the potential for tropical disturbances across the USVI and Puerto Rico this year.
“AccuWeather meteorologists believe the Virgin Islands could experience one or two impacts from a tropical storm or hurricane this season,” DaSilva said. “We’ll watch these tropical waves as they come across,” he added.
“Anything that potentially develops over the next week or two would likely be on the weaker side, unless we can clear out the dry air, which is expected to stick around the USVI and Puerto Rico region for the next few weeks,” DaSilva predicted.
Follow Local Weather Updates
Finally, the NWS in San Juan reminded individuals Wednesday about weather-related threats that will continue to affect the USVI and Puerto Rico over the coming days, including gusty winds, very warm temperatures, wind-driven choppy seas, and an elevated risk of rip currents. Additionally, a plume of Saharan dust is forecast to arrive early next week, causing a hazy sky.
It is crucial to remember that the forecast can change very quickly. USVI residents and visitors are encouraged to continue to remain prepared. Plentiful weather information is available from the NWS, the NHC, and NOAA. In a recent welcome development for forecasters, critical microwave satellite data — previously scheduled to stop transmitting to NOAA — will continue to be shared by the U.S. Department of Defense through September 2026.
The local weather forecast for the U.S. Virgin Islands is regularly updated on the Source Weather Page and VI Source YouTube Channel. Individuals can also find helpful weather information and alerts from the Virgin Islands Territorial Emergency Management Agency.
