As Hurricane Erin moves away from the U.S. Virgin Islands and Puerto Rico, the National Hurricane Center is monitoring two additional tropical waves crossing the Atlantic. One of the waves has a moderate chance of development and could strengthen as it approaches the Leeward Islands later this week.
As of the 8 p.m. Monday update from the NHC, Hurricane Erin was located about 695 miles southwest of Bermuda, moving northwest with maximum sustained winds of 130 mph, currently a Category 3 cyclone. The storm’s core is forecast to remain over water, but weather alerts have been issued for the Bahamas, Turks and Caicos, and parts of the U.S. East Coast due to potential impacts.
Closer to the U.S. Virgin Islands and Puerto Rico, the National Hurricane Center is monitoring Disturbance #1, a tropical wave in the central Atlantic with a moderate chance of development in the coming days. Another system, Disturbance #2, is also being watched, though it has a low chance of development. Residents and visitors are urged to remain prepared and monitor official updates.
As of 8 p.m. Monday, the NHC provided the following update regarding Disturbance #1:
“A tropical wave located over the central tropical Atlantic is producing some disorganized showers and thunderstorms. Environmental conditions appear conducive for gradual development of this system, and a tropical depression could form toward the end of the week. This system should move westward to west-northwestward at about 20 mph across the central tropical Atlantic and approach the vicinity of the Leeward Islands on Friday,” the NHC said.
The NHC also shared information about Disturbance #2:
“A tropical wave located just off the coast of Africa is producing a persistent cluster of disorganized showers and thunderstorms. Some slight development of this system is possible over the next day or two as it moves westward at around 15 mph. On Thursday, this system should reach a less favorable environment, which should reduce its chances for development.”
On Monday afternoon, the Source reached out to Alex DaSilva, lead hurricane expert at AccuWeather, for more details on what could potentially occur regarding Disturbance #1, which may affect the USVI and Puerto Rico later this week.
“The next tropical wave will probably approach the Lesser Antilles around Thursday or Friday, possibly into Saturday morning,” DaSilva said. “I think it has a pretty good opportunity to develop, as it has a good moisture envelope and relatively low wind shear. I think it has a shot of becoming a tropical storm or a low-end hurricane by the time it’s approaching the islands. Of course, we still have to watch it closely, but it’s going to be in a fairly favorable environment for development,” DaSilva predicted.
“The big question is, how close will it follow in Erin’s wake? If this tropical wave follows very close to Erin’s path, it will probably have a little bit of trouble developing,” DaSilva said. “If it travels further south, toward Barbados, I think it would have a better shot at development because it wouldn’t be in the wake of Erin.”
DaSilva went on to explain that if the path of Disturbance #1 follows that of Erin, its development could be limited because of a phenomenon known as upwelling. Upwelling occurs when a storm like Erin churns the ocean and pulls cooler water from below up to the surface. Since hurricanes draw energy from warm water, the cooler surface temperatures can cut off the fuel needed for further intensification of Disturbance #1.
Upwelling of Ocean Water
“When a storm goes through an area, the winds are so strong that it creates large waves that mix up the ocean water,” DaSilva said. “The water is warmest at the surface, and then it’s cooler as you go farther beneath the sea surface. The cool water comes up to the surface and replaces that warm water, and the stronger the storm is, the bigger the waves, which results in more upwelling,” he explained.
“Cooler water temperatures at the ocean surface caused by upwelling can last a couple of weeks. With Erin, it will probably last a week or two, because we’re still fairly early in the hurricane season, and the waters will rebound.”
“Forecasters are still trying to determine which side of the islands it will come up on. Either way, impacts to some of the islands across the Lesser Antilles would be around the end of the week with some rain and some wind at the very least, even if it doesn’t develop into a cyclone. We will be monitoring closely,” DaSilva confirmed.
If Disturbance #1 intensifies into a tropical storm, with maximum sustained winds of at least 39 mph, it will be designated Fernand, the sixth named cyclone of this year’s hurricane season.
Hurricane Preparedness
Preparedness remains one of the most important tools for saving lives during hurricane season. Even with advances in forecasting, storms can still intensify quickly and catch communities off guard.
As was reported in a previous Source article about the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration’s 2025 Atlantic hurricane season forecast, hurricane preparedness was a major topic of discussion. Ken Graham, director of the NWS, urged the public not to focus solely on a hurricane’s category but on the potential impacts. He noted that every Category 5 hurricane that struck the United States in recorded history was classified as a tropical storm or even less intense just three days before landfall as a major hurricane.
“Every Category 5 storm to ever hit this country was a tropical storm or less three days prior,” Graham stressed. “The big ones that hit this country are fast,” he warned.
In another previous Source article, Jamie Rhome, deputy director of the NHC, provided information regarding preparedness tips for the U.S. Virgin Islands.
Beyond the helpful hurricane preparedness tips available from the NHC, Rhome emphasized the importance of preparing for the possibility of extended electrical outages, which can typically occur during a storm and could last for extended periods.
“Power outages are becoming an increasing challenge during and after hurricanes,” Rhome said. “Losing power in the Caribbean during a passing hurricane is certainly not news, but what we’re seeing are more situations happening because of the power outages and dealing with oppressive heat in the days after a hurricane has passed and without air conditioning or fans that rely on power,” Rhome stated.
“We’re seeing more people succumb to heat-related illnesses, including heat stroke,” he acknowledged. “We’re also seeing situations where people are lacking easy access to health care, or the loss of power is making it harder for them to take care of themselves, or they may be utilizing a respirator, or a diabetic individual may need to keep their insulin cool,” he said. “There is a myriad of cascading issues that come from the absence of power, and the NHC encourages individuals to think about what they would do to take care of themselves and their families for not just one day without power, but possibly for a week or even two weeks from a major hurricane.”
Rhome said that one of the most important steps to take to prepare for hurricane season is to assemble an emergency supply kit and take additional preparedness steps, including making a plan for communication with family and friends, particularly if communications are unavailable after a storm.
Hurricane Erin: A Clear Reminder to Be Ready
With Hurricane Erin’s recent rapid intensification, residents are reminded of how essential it is to be prepared when a storm threatens.
The Source reached out to Rafe Boulon, a weather observer who lives on St. John, for a local perspective on hurricane preparedness.
“Ever since Hurricanes David and Frederic in 1979, when I was in Puerto Rico working on obtaining my master’s degree, I have been a strong believer in preparing if there is the slightest chance of a wobble bringing the storm very near or over us,” Boulon said.
“As that was the case with Erin, I took it seriously and put up shutters on about 90% of my openings, leaving just those that provided some light and air flow and would be easy to close up if necessary. And, as Erin is early in the season, I will likely leave up some of the more difficult shutters to put on,” Boulon explained.
Boulon offered the following words of wisdom for individuals across the USVI as we approach the climatological peak of hurricane season.
“I always recommend to people that they stay vigilant, recognize that storm tracks and intensity can vary drastically sometimes, and always prepare for the worst,” Boulon advised. “More often than not, you will spend a lot of time making unnecessary preparations, but you will never regret having done so if a storm suddenly wobbles into us or goes from a Category 2 to a Category 4 in 12 hours, for example,” Boulon added.
Local Weather Information and Staying Informed
On Monday, the NWS in San Juan reminded individuals about other weather-related threats that will affect the USVI and Puerto Rico over the coming days, including a chance of showers, very warm temperatures with the potential for heat alerts, and an elevated risk of rip currents.
Additionally, a plume of Saharan dust is forecast to arrive Tuesday, and will last through Thursday, deteriorating air quality and causing hazy conditions.
It is crucial to remember that the forecast can change very quickly. USVI residents and visitors are encouraged to continue to remain prepared. Weather information is available from the NWS, the NHC, and NOAA.
The local weather forecast for the U.S. Virgin Islands is regularly updated on the Source Weather Page and VI Source YouTube Channel. A weekly Tropical Outlook article from the Source is also published throughout hurricane season to provide in-depth updates.
Residents and visitors can find additional weather alerts and preparedness information from the Virgin Islands Territorial Emergency Management Agency.