Ukrainian defenders have been attempting to mount a defence of the surrounded eastern cities of Pokrovsk and Myrnohrad, a month into Russia’s latest attempt to seize them.
On Thursday, as fighting on the front lines raged, President Volodymyr Zelenskyy claimed Russia has no interest in ending the war amid reports Washington and Moscow have drafted a 28-point peace plan. The proposal is said to heap pressure on Ukraine to give up land, something Kyiv has throughout the war said was a red line.
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“Russia has no real desire for peace; otherwise, they would not have started this war,” he said in a recorded message posted to X. “The United States has the power to ensure that Russia’s willingness to end the war finally becomes serious.”
Russia dedicated 150,000 troops to capturing the enclave containing Pokrovsk and Myrnohrad, Ukraine said, which is now surrounded on three sides, with Ukrainian supply lines open only to the west.
Zelenskyy told US senators in a bipartisan virtual meeting on November 12 that Russia had suffered its greatest casualty rate of the entire war in Pokrovsk, estimating it at 25,000 – though he did not specify over what period.
Ukraine’s military defence efforts were highlighted by the story of a soldier from the 155th Mechanized Battalion, who reportedly spent 100 days in the shell of a destroyed building, separated from his unit, until he was rescued.
Ukraine’s General Staff released a video of the fighting in Pokrovsk, purporting to show reinforcements arriving in the city, and suggesting lines of communication remained operative.
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“These are shots of our equipment arriving, disembarking and advancing groups. In these shots, additional assault groups are advancing into the eastern part of the city,” the video voiceover said. It said the arrivals were reinforcing the Ukrainian stronghold in the northern part of Pokrovsk.
Later, the video purported to show troops “clearing positions on the western outskirts of Pokrovsk and in the area of the entrance to the city. In the administrative building in the city centre, soldiers of the regiment are holding positions”.
Ukrainian commander-in-chief Oleksandr Syrskyi wrote on the Telegram messaging platform: “There is an ongoing constant struggle with small enemy assault infantry groups, and, less frequently, the destruction of light enemy equipment.”
The main action belonged to drone operators on both sides, who are locked in a fierce contest for control of the skies.
The head of Ukraine’s National Guard, which is fighting in Pokrovsk, said Kyiv needs to step up drone production and acquisition to stop Russian troops while they are still out in the open.
“We need to stop the enemy more as they approach on foot, so that they do not infiltrate,” Okeksandr Pivnenko told Reuters.
He said Ukraine had achieved drone parity in some parts of the front, but not all.
Surround or infiltrate?
The Russian command appeared undecided about whether to infiltrate or surround the cities, and was pursuing a dual objective, slowing its advance, said the Institute for the Study of War (ISW), a Washington-based think tank.
“The Russian military command does not appear to be focusing forces and means on completing the encirclement of the Pokrovsk-Myrnohrad area, which would normally be the fastest and least costly way to seize the entire area, and instead continues to pursue some level of head-on attacks,” said the ISW.
Part of Russia’s problem appeared to be the “active defence” of Dobropillia, a town to the northwest of Pokrovsk, which Russia had attempted to capture in August as part of a sweeping encirclement plan. That attack invited a counteroffensive which liberated 189 square kilometres (73sq miles) of occupied land and left the Russian encirclement in ruins.
Russia’s 2nd and 51st Combined Arms Armies, attacking Pokrovsk and Myrnohrad from the south and north, respectively, appear to be attempting a more limited envelopment of the enclave and a simultaneous head-on infiltration using small groups of soldiers.
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The infiltration of Pokrovsk from the south has appeared to be advancing during the past week, while Ukrainian defenders still held the northern neighbourhoods.
Russia was attacking other parts of the 1,200km (745-mile) front as well, testing for weaknesses and experimenting with the infiltration tactics that have proven successful in Pokrovsk.
During the week of November 13-19, it seized several villages in Kharkiv, Dnipropetrovsk and Zaporizhia.
One of Russia’s advantages is its control of the air. Its aircraft are dropping 200-250 glide bombs a day on Ukrainian front lines. Ukraine’s deputy military intelligence chief Vadym Skibitskyi told Reuters that Russia planned to produce 120,000 glide bombs next year, which could raise the daily average to 330.
“It is possible to shoot them down, but the quantity of these aerial bombs produced in the Russian Federation … is enormous,” Skibitskyi said. “This is a threat. A threat that will require us to respond appropriately.”
The long-distance war
Russia has used long-range drones and missiles to attack Ukraine’s cities.
During the past week, it launched just under 1,600 drones and 78 missiles. Ukraine intercepted 86 percent of the drones and three-quarters of the missiles.
Many Russian drones and missiles have struck residential areas repeatedly.
The worst such attack came on November 19. At least 25 people, including children, were killed in the western Ukrainian city of Ternopil, when Russia pulverised the top floors of a nine-storey apartment building. At least 80 others were reported wounded.
Ukraine, which continues to respond with attacks on Russian energy infrastructure, said it struck an oil terminal in Novorossiysk on Friday. Russia suspended export operations at the terminal, which account for 2 percent of the global oil trade.
Ukraine also struck the Saratov oil refinery and a fuel depot near the Engels airbase.
A day later, the Ryazan refinery also suspended operations due to a strike.
But it was unclear whether this campaign was having the intended impact on Russia’s ability to provide its armed forces with diesel.
Russia was reported to have lost 20 percent of refining capacity between August and October, but that was quickly reduced to 3 percent by activating spare capacity, Reuters more recently reported, citing sources and data.
Diverging agendas
On Wednesday, Zelenskyy met with his Turkish counterpart, Recep Tayyip Erdogan, who has in the past successfully interceded with Russia to broker prisoner-of-war exchanges.
While there, Zelenskyy reportedly swerved a meeting with US envoy Steve Witkoff, who was apparently bearing the 28-point peace plan from the White House.
The plan entailed territorial concessions to Russia and a reduction in the size of Ukraine’s armed forces, two anonymous sources told Reuters. Both are key Moscow demands. A Ukrainian source said Kyiv had no role in drafting the proposal.
Earlier, Axios had reported that Washington was working on a 28-point peace plan.
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Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov told journalists there were “no innovations” in Russia’s stance “that can be reported to you”.
Separately, Ukraine and its European allies have drafted a ceasefire plan that demands the complete and unconditional cessation of hostilities. Europe has not demanded that Ukraine cede territory and advocates strengthening Kyiv’s armed forces.
Zelenskyy clearly leans towards the European plan. His European tour started in Athens, where he and Prime Minister Kyriakos Mitsotakis announced their intention to co-produce surface drones.
On Monday, Zelenskyy was in Paris to sign a 10-year deal with President Emmanuel Macron for weapons purchases and co-production, which includes 100 Rafale F4 aircraft by 2035, eight SAMP/T air defence systems with six launchers each, air defence radar, air-to-air missiles, and guided aerial bombs.
On Tuesday, Spain became the first country to announce a direct allocation within the European Union’s Security Action For Europe (SAFE) programme for weapons co-production with Ukraine, in the amount of 215 million euros ($250m). Spain also promised 40 Iris-T missiles and planned to provide long-range radars.
On Thursday, German Chancellor Friedrich Merz suggested he may provide Ukraine with the long-range Taurus cruise missiles it has long sought.
“In recent months, we have been working intensively with the Ukrainian government on projects that we technically refer to as ‘long-range fire’. The Ukrainian army will be equipped with such weapon systems,” Merz said.
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