An unexpectedly tight special election is unfolding in Tennessee, where Democrats in the United States are hoping to flip the reliably conservative 7th congressional district.
On Tuesday, voters in the southern state headed to the polls on Tuesday to select a successor for Republican Representative Mark Green, who resigned in July to pursue a career in the private sector.
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His vacant seat in the US House of Representatives has paved the way for a surprisingly competitive off-season race, one that critics describe as a sign of growing dissatisfaction with Republican President Donald Trump.
The election pits Trump-backed candidate Matt Van Epps, a former state commissioner, against Democratic state Representative Aftyn Behn.
“I am asking all America First Patriots in Tennessee’s 7th Congressional District to please GET OUT AND VOTE for a phenomenal Candidate and MAGA Warrior, Matt Van Epps!” Trump said in a social media post on Tuesday.
“You can win this Election for Matt, who has my Complete and Total Endorsement.”
Other national figures have weighed in on the race, including progressive Representative Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez and former Vice President Al Gore, both of whom rallied on Behn’s behalf.
“The very fact that this race is in play is showing that we are in a time when anything can happen and that miracles can happen, including in Tennessee,” Ocasio-Cortez said, who praised Behn for her “guts”.
“Now we have this race within striking distance: what we call the margin of effort.”
The fight for control of Tennessee’s 7th congressional district comes less than a year before the US holds its pivotal midterm elections in November 2026.
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During the midterms, all 435 seats in the House of Representatives are up for grabs. Currently, Republicans have a narrow majority in that chamber, as well as in the US Senate.
Given how small the margins are, both Democrats and Republicans have been angling to win every seat they can.
The right-wing stronghold of Texas, for instance, passed a bill in August that would redraw the state’s congressional districts with the aim of giving Republican politicians five extra seats in the midterms.
That Trump-backed redistricting push has inspired other states to take similar efforts. In left-leaning California, for instance, voters approved a ballot initiative in November to redraw the state’s congressional map to help Democrats gain five more seats, effectively negating the Texas effort.
Tennessee’s 7th congressional district was not part of this year’s partisan redistricting push. But in 2022, the Republican-held state legislature did rework its congressional maps to give Republicans a greater edge.
The 2022 map split Nashville — a Democratic-leaning city — into three separate congressional districts, thereby diluting the power of its Democratic voters. The 7th congressional district is one of the districts that now represents a part of Nashville.
Previously, it was considered a safely right-wing district. But Behn trails Van Epps closely in most polls.
A survey by Emerson College put her at 46 percent support, compared to 48 percent for Van Epps. An additional 5 percent of those surveyed remained undecided.
But if Behn should prevail, her victory would further narrow the Republican majority in the US House of Representatives.
Money from national groups has flowed into the race, given how close the two candidates are in the polls.
MAGA Inc — a super PAC named for Trump’s Make America Great Again (MAGA) movement — has poured $1m into the race, in its first donation since the 2024 presidential election season. The left-leaning House Majority PAC has also spent $1m to back Behn.
Republicans are hoping to recover from a series of stinging election losses to Democrats in November’s off-year elections.
In New Jersey, for instance, Democrat Mikie Sherrill trounced a Trump-backed candidate to win the governor’s seat, and another Democrat, Abigail Spanberger, likewise emerged victorious in Virginia’s gubernatorial race.
Political analysts believe that Tennessee’s tight race could point towards an increasingly hostile political landscape for Republicans before the 2026 midterms.
Trump won Tennessee’s 7th congressional district by 22 points in 2024.
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But a recent Gallup poll found that Trump’s popularity has dropped to the lowest levels of his second term, with just 36 percent of voters saying they approve of his work. Disapproval also reached a new high, with 60 percent saying they disapprove.
In the lead-up to Tuesday’s vote, Republican leaders urged supporters to make their voices heard at the ballot box.
“Special elections are strange animals, and anything can happen. And when you’re in a deep-red district, sometimes people assume that the Republican, the conservative, will win,” Republican House Speaker Mike Johnson told reporters.
“You cannot assume that, because anything can happen. So we encourage everybody to go out there and make that happen.”
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