In the past week, Russia has ramped up a diplomacy of intimidation in the Baltic Sea using planes, drones and words aimed at Ukraine’s European allies.
After threats towards Finland earlier in September, Russia violated Estonian airspace on Friday and German airspace on Sunday, days after it had flown two dozen drones into Poland.
- list 1 of 4What’s happened to diplomatic efforts to end the war in Ukraine?
- list 2 of 4In Ukraine’s Sloviansk, some are abandoning long-held sympathies for Russia
- list 3 of 4NATO warns Russia of airspace violations, will defend self, deter threats
- list 4 of 4In major shift, Trump says Ukraine can win back all territory from Russia
end of list
Russia’s escalation came ahead of the United Nations General Assembly where it has many sympathisers among the world’s 195 nations, and seemed designed to isolate Europe, Australia and Japan, where support for Ukraine is staunchest.
This diplomatic theatre, during which United States President Trump in a major shift claimed Ukraine could win back its territory, played out against intensifying Russian attacks on Ukraine that resulted in territorial losses for Russia in Ukraine’s east and north.
Russia not invincible
Ukrainian commander in chief Oleksandr Syrskii said on September 21 that his defenders had pushed Russian assault forces back from Dobropillia and Pokrovsk, two towns they have been fighting for intensively in the Donetsk region for a year.
“164.5sq km [64sq miles] have been liberated, and 180.8sq km [70sq miles] cleared of enemy sabotage and reconnaissance groups,” Syrskii said. “Control was restored over seven settlements.”
Syrskii first mentioned Ukrainian advances in this direction on September 7, when he revealed that Ukrainian forces had taken back 51.5sq km (20sq miles) in August.
Presumably, his reference to 164.5sq km referred to gains in August and September, and suggested the Ukrainian forces were picking up speed.
Russia, too, made gains during the week, claiming it seized the villages Muravka in Donetsk, Novoivanovka in Zaporizhia and Berezove in Dnipropetrovsk.
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But Ukraine’s ability to take back territory in some of the most hotly contested battlefields belied the Russian claim to be unstoppable.
“We have an old parable, an old rule: wherever a Russian soldier steps, it is ours,” Russian President Vladimir Putin had told the Saint Petersburg International Economic Forum last June.
Russia ‘failed’ in Sumy: Zelenskyy
Russia also retreated from the northern region of Sumy, where it was attempting an incursion after reclaiming its own adjacent region of Kursk from a Ukrainian counteroffensive last March.
This month, Russia redeployed some of its elite paratrooper and marine units from Sumy.
“The Sumy operation has failed. They suffered significant losses, primarily in manpower,” said Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy at a news conference in Kyiv last week. “Today, they have abandoned this direction.”
Despite these retreats, Russia is still making net gains of Ukrainian territory. In August, it captured 499sq km (190sq miles), according to the Institute for the Study of War, a Washington-based think tank.
Ukraine is trying to cut off the Russian military’s fuel supply, and has scored some successes in recent days.
Ukrainian long-distance drones hit the Salavat and Volgograd refineries on September 18, said Andriy Kovalenko, the head of Ukraine’s Center for Countering Disinformation.
On Tuesday, Ukraine’s General Staff said their unmanned systems forces and intelligence services hit a fuel mixing station in Samara, “where high- and low-density oil from different sources is being mixed to form the export grade of Urals oil”.
They also hit a compressor station along the “Steel Horse” pipeline in the border region of Bryansk vital to the supply of the Russian army, and two planes at the Kacha military airbase in Crimea.
Russian air defences reportedly downed 150 Ukrainian drones in various parts of the country, 33 of them headed for Moscow.
Meanwhile, Europe prepared a 19th package of sanctions to cut off Russian revenues from energy exports. At Trump’s behest, it included a ban on Russian liquefied natural gas beginning in 2027.
Europe bought more than $8bn worth of Russian LNG last year, and was to ban it in 2028.
Western powers slam Russia’s ‘extremely dangerous provocation’
On Friday, three Russian MiG-31 fighter jets entered Estonian airspace for 12 minutes, the Estonian General Staff said, flying east to west parallel with Estonia’s north coast. Estonia said its transponders were disabled, preventing communication.
Italian F-35s stationed in Estonia scrambled to intercept them.
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NATO spokesperson Alison Hart said it was “irresponsible behaviour” and EU foreign policy chief Kaja Kallas called it an “extremely dangerous provocation”.
“Russia has violated Estonian airspace four times already this year, which is unacceptable in itself, but today’s violation, during which three fighter jets entered our airspace, is unprecedentedly brazen,” Estonian foreign minister Margus Tsahkna said.
“Russia’s increasingly extensive testing of boundaries and growing aggressiveness must be met with a swift increase in political and economic pressure,” he said.
The Russian jets also made a low pass over the Petrobaltic oil platform in the Baltic Sea, which belongs to Poland.
Russia denied violating Estonian sovereignty. “The flight was conducted in strict accordance with the International Rules for the Use of Airspace, without violating the borders of foreign states,” said the Russian defence ministry.
The incident came nine days after two dozen Russian drones entered Polish airspace and had to be shot down.
“These are not accidental incidents. The Russians will continue trying to spread their aggression, their destabilization, and their interference,” Zelenskyy said on Saturday.
The next day, Germany scrambled two Eurofighters to intercept a Russian aircraft in its Baltic Sea airspace flying without a flight plan or radio contact. Visual contact confirmed it was an Ilyushin II 20-M reconnaissance aircraft.
British Foreign Secretary Yvette Cooper reprimanded Russia at the UN General Assembly, which kicked off on Monday. “Your reckless actions risk direct armed confrontation between NATO and Russia. Our alliance is defensive but be under no illusion we stand ready to defend NATO’s skies and NATO’s territory,” she said.
On the same day, Poland announced it would shoot down unauthorised aircraft in its airspace.
“We will take the decision to shoot down flying objects when they violate our territory and fly over Poland – there is absolutely no discussion about that,” Prime Minister Donald Tusk told a news conference.
But he cautioned, “When we’re dealing with situations that aren’t entirely clear, such as the recent flight of Russian fighter jets over the Petrobaltic platform – but without any violation, because these aren’t our territorial waters – you really need to think twice before deciding on actions that could trigger a very acute phase of conflict.”
On Tuesday, NATO said it would deploy all means necessary to defend itself.
“Russia should be in no doubt: NATO and Allies will employ, in accordance with international law, all necessary military and non-military tools to defend ourselves and deter all threats from all directions,” the statement said.
Ukraine does not appear to be waiting for NATO. Last week, it announced a joint task force with Poland to coordinate closer cooperation on drone research, training and manufacture.
Zelenskyy on Friday said Ukraine was preparing to export some of its weapons production to create revenue for weapons it still needs.
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“We already have certain types of weapons in much larger quantities than we actually need today in Ukraine,” he said. “For example, naval drones that the world counts on and that we have in surplus, as well as antitank weapons and some other types.”
Ukraine would sell to Europe, the US and global partners, Zelenskyy said, but ensure that none of its weapons were re-exported to end up in enemy hands.
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