The National Hurricane Center does not expect tropical cyclone development across the Atlantic basin during the next seven days. However, a tropical wave forecast to move across the Caribbean this weekend could bring scattered showers, thunderstorms, and localized flooding to portions of the U.S. Virgin Islands and Puerto Rico.
Local Weather Conditions
According to the National Weather Service in San Juan, Puerto Rico, the overall weather pattern is forecast to be influenced by high pressure across the local region. This setup will maintain generally stable and warm conditions through at least Saturday. However, on Sunday, a tropical wave moving across the Caribbean will bring moisture near the islands. While significant development of this wave is not expected, the increase in moisture and atmospheric instability will enhance the potential for showers and thunderstorms across the U.S. Virgin Islands and portions of Puerto Rico. Localized flooding is possible.
“On Sunday, the main weather feature will be the presence of a tropical wave moving across the Caribbean waters, bringing a surge of deep tropical moisture over the region,” the NWS said on Thursday.
“As a result, scattered to numerous showers and isolated thunderstorms are expected across the U.S. Virgin Islands and the eastern and southern portions of Puerto Rico, spreading inland throughout the day. With the combination of abundant moisture and instability, a limited to elevated flooding risk is possible, particularly across areas that experience persistent or heavy rainfall,” the NWS reported.
After the tropical wave departs, inclement weather may continue through Tuesday, when a ridge of high pressure will set up over the area, helping to limit precipitation.
“In the wake of the tropical wave, residual moisture will persist across the region, resulting in scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms throughout the day,” the NWS explained. “Although overall instability will begin to decrease, the remaining moisture and local effects may still support localized flooding, particularly in the interior and western parts of Puerto Rico. Therefore, a limited flooding risk will persist into the beginning of the work week. From Tuesday onward, a more typical weather pattern is expected to return as drier air and a strengthening mid-level ridge promote stability across the region.”
A limited heat risk will also persist in the coming days with warm daytime temperatures, possibly generating heat alerts across the area.
Marine and Coastal Hazards
In addition to the tropical wave passing near the USVI and Puerto Rico this weekend, marine conditions are also expected to deteriorate beginning late Thursday into Friday, as a weak northerly swell builds across the Atlantic waters and Caribbean passages. Seas could reach six feet or higher, and gusty winds are expected to generate hazardous conditions for boaters and swimmers.
“Breezy conditions increasing late this week will create choppy seas. Small craft should exercise caution. Additionally, a high risk of rip currents is expected along north-facing beaches by Friday, as a weak northerly swell reaches the Atlantic waters,” the NWS warned.
The Remaining Weeks of Atlantic Hurricane Season
The Atlantic hurricane season officially ends later this month on Nov. 30. The season so far has produced intense storms, including Hurricane Melissa, which became one of the most powerful cyclones ever recorded in the Atlantic basin.
Hurricane Melissa made landfall along the southwestern coastline of Jamaica on Oct. 28 as an extremely dangerous Category 5 storm, causing widespread impacts across the island. The hurricane then made a second landfall along eastern Cuba at Category 3 strength before passing through the southeastern Bahamas as a Category 2 hurricane, carving a path of devastation across areas of the western Caribbean.
In a recent exclusive video interview with the VI Source, Alex DaSilva, lead hurricane expert at AccuWeather, discussed key events from the 2025 Atlantic hurricane season, highlighting major systems such as Hurricane Melissa and explaining the atmospheric patterns that shaped this year’s tropical activity.
“We’ve seen three Category 5 hurricanes this year, which is only the second time in history that’s ever happened. The cyclones that formed essentially went to the moon in terms of intensity. That’s being driven by incredibly warm sea surface temperatures, especially in the Caribbean, where the heat extends hundreds of feet down. That deep energy is what allows storms like Melissa to explode,” DaSilva explained.
He added that while the number of storms this year was near average, the extreme intensity of several systems underscores how ocean heat content is fueling more rapid intensification events across the Atlantic basin.
As for what to expect during the remainder of the season, DaSilva says residents across the Virgin Islands and Puerto Rico should remain alert.
“Climatologically, the eastern Caribbean is usually in the clear after November starts, but we can never let our guard down. The warm sea surface temperatures and La Nina conditions could still spark one or two storms before the end of the month. Even a single storm can have major impacts, as history has shown,” he said.
Looking Ahead: NOAA Global Tropics Hazards Outlook
A Global Tropics Hazards Outlook was released Tuesday by NOAA’s Climate Prediction Center, and the forecast tool provides insight into potential activity across tropical basins up to three weeks in advance.
NOAA does not expect tropical development across the Atlantic basin during the “Week Two” outlook period, which runs from Nov. 12 until Nov. 18 or during the “Week Three” period, from Nov. 19 until Nov. 26.
While tropical activity is not expected to develop near the USVI in the near term, it is important to remember that this forecast is not guaranteed, and development may still happen as the forecast can change. Additionally, a recent Tropical Outlook from the Source noted that the emergence of a La Niña weather pattern could influence storm activity for the rest of the hurricane season.
During a La Niña cycle, the ocean waters across the equatorial Pacific Ocean cool significantly, affecting global weather. During La Nina, wind shear— a change in wind direction and velocity with height in the atmosphere — also typically decreases in the Atlantic Ocean. A reduction in wind shear can favor cyclone development. This pattern is the opposite of El Niño, a warming of the equatorial Pacific, which usually increases wind shear in the Atlantic Ocean, helping to rip apart storms and prevent hurricane formation and intensification.
Stay Informed
USVI residents and visitors are encouraged to continue to remain prepared. Weather information is available from the NWS, the NHC, and NOAA.
The local weather forecast for the U.S. Virgin Islands is also regularly updated on the Source Weather Page and VI Source YouTube Channel. Additionally, A weekly Tropical Outlook article from the Source will be published throughout hurricane season to provide in-depth updates.
Residents and visitors can find additional weather alerts and preparedness information from the Virgin Islands Territorial Emergency Management Agency.
