Venezuelan President Nicolas Maduro has accused the US government of “fabricating a new eternal war” against him, as the aircraft carrier USS Gerald R Ford inches towards the Venezuelan coast.
The US deployment of the carrier – the world’s largest warship – follows 11 US strikes on boats in Venezuelan waters, which the US claims are trafficking drugs and are linked to the Tren de Aragua criminal gang.
On Tuesday, Venezuela suspended a major gas deal with neighbouring Trinidad and Tobago, citing the island nation’s reception of the USS Gravely, another US warship.
So far, the US has not produced any evidence that the Venezuelan boats it has targeted were carrying drugs, and Maduro denies it. “Venezuela is a country that does not produce cocaine leaves,” he said last week. Furthermore, experts say that most drugs are smuggled into the US via the Mexican land border – by US citizens.
Speculation that Trump is actually angling for regime change in Venezuela is mounting, but it is not the only country whose domestic affairs or relations with other countries Trump seems determined to interfere in. The US president has also made comments about, or direct moves towards, the internal affairs of Brazil, India, Israel and Argentina, among others.
What is the US doing in the Caribbean and why?
The US has built up a huge military presence, including nuclear-capable B-52 bombers and elite special operations forces, in the Caribbean. It says this is necessary for its security – and to prevent an “invasion” by Venezuelan drug gangs.
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Trump has said he is considering land attacks and has authorised the CIA to conduct covert operations inside Venezuela.
Since September 2, US forces have struck 11 boats, with eight of the attacks occurring in the Caribbean, claiming that they are trafficking drugs to the US. At least 49 people have been killed in the attacks – but the US has not provided any evidence to back its claims.
While the US has named the notorious criminal gang, Tren de Aragua, in connection with its claims of drug smuggling, the gang is primarily known for contract killings, extortion and people smuggling. It is not known for major global drug trafficking operations.
Global cocaine production hit a record 3,708 tonnes in 2023. It mainly originated in Colombia, Peru and Bolivia, according to the UN Office on Drugs and Crime (UNODC). Most US-bound cocaine routes go through Colombia, Peru and Ecuador rather than Venezuela, which serves as only a minor transit corridor.
The US Drug Enforcement Administration (DEA) reported last year that 84 percent of US-seized cocaine comes from Colombia and did not mention Venezuela as a source.
Is Trump really angling for regime change in Venezuela?
Maduro has alleged this, but it is an allegation Trump has not responded to.
“They are seeking a regime change through military threat,” Maduro said in September.
“The purpose of US actions is to create legitimacy for an operation to change the regime in Venezuela, with the ultimate goal of taking control of all the country’s resources,” the Maduro government stated again this month.
On Friday last week, Maduro stated during a national broadcast: “They are fabricating an extravagant narrative, a vulgar, criminal and totally fake one,” referring to the US narrative that Venezuelan drug gangs are “invading” the US.
Maduro returned to power last year following a disputed election. He was widely accused of election fraud by the US and some Latin American countries. The Carter Center and UN experts reported that the election lacked international standards and transparency.
Since then, the US has not formally recognised Maduro’s presidency or maintained diplomatic relations with Venezuela since 2019. This year’s Nobel Peace Prize was awarded to key opposition figure Maria Corina Machado, who is currently in hiding for fear of arrest.
Furthermore, Trump has alleged, without evidence, that Maduro is the leader of Tren de Aragua.
On October 15 at the White House, reporters questioned Trump on his stance towards Caracas.
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“Does the CIA have authority to take out Maduro?” one journalist asked.
Trump responded: “Oh, I don’t want to answer a question like that. That’s a ridiculous question for me to be given. Not really a ridiculous question, but wouldn’t it be a ridiculous question for me to answer? But I think Venezuela’s feeling heat.”
Why would Trump interfere in Venezuela?
Experts say Trump has a number of incentives.
Popularity at home
The first reason is that his actions towards Venezuela are popular with his MAGA support base, who are demanding a crackdown on immigration, drugs and crime.
“Visible pressure in the Americas helps him claim results on migration, drugs, and crime, which resonates with parts of his coalition in Florida and Texas,” Salvador Santino Regilme, an associate professor at Leiden University in the Netherlands, told Al Jazeera.
Heading off Russia and China
A second reason is that Trump may want to demonstrate to his supporters that he is heading off geopolitical competition in the Americas from other rivals.
“Venezuela is a stage to undercut the presence of Russia, Iran, and China in the hemisphere and to reassert a modern version of the Monroe Doctrine,” Regilme said, referring to the US foreign policy doctrine coined by President James Monroe in 1823, which decrees that North and South America should be free from European influence.
In September this year, the Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS) think tank released a report that showed that China and Russia’s military diplomacy was growing in Latin America and the Caribbean. The report states China has hosted frequent high-level defence meetings, such as the China-LAC Defense Forum, and maintained regular bilateral dialogues with senior officials from Brazil, Argentina and others.
Between 2022 and 2025, China conducted 97 military exchanges with 18 Latin American and Caribbean countries. Russia has also conducted high-level meetings with countries, including Nicaragua and Venezuela.
Negotiating power
Third, Trump is building negotiation leverage in Latin America through his aggressive stance towards Venezuela.
“Sanctions relief and oil licensing are bargaining chips that Washington can trade for political concessions in Caracas and for cooperation from neighbours,” Regilme said.
Control of resources
Venezuela’s energy resources – particularly ultra-heavy crude oil – have a part to play in this as well.
“It holds the world’s largest proven oil reserves, but much of that is extra-heavy Orinoco crude that requires diluents, upgrading, and major capital to bring to market,” Regilme said.
Despite having an ample supply, Venezuela is not a top player in hydrocarbons, he added, as its oil and gas industry has suffered from years of poor investment and international sanctions.
“In practice, Washington’s leverage is less about seizing hydrocarbons and more about controlling the regulatory choke points that determine who can invest, ship, insure, and refine Venezuelan barrels. Selective licensing shapes global supply at the margins, influences price stability, and sets the terms for any political concessions in Caracas,” Regilme said.
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“Energy is therefore a lever inside a broader political strategy, not the singular objective.”
Where else has Trump been meddling in domestic affairs?
Regilme said Trump’s foreign policy actions such as his stance towards Venezuela were predictable. “It continues his transactional, leader-to-leader style that mixes public spectacle with coercive leverage,” he said.
“In office, he has paired tariffs, sanctions, and overt intelligence signalling with personal diplomacy to pressure both allies and adversaries. The method is stable across terms: personalise power, reward ideological friends, punish opponents, and stage toughness for a domestic audience.”
Furthermore, his interference in foreign countries has not damaged his popularity back home.
“These high-visibility moves reliably energise core supporters in places like Florida and parts of Texas, but they have not produced gains among independents or younger voters unless they trigger pocketbook costs, visible disorder at the border, or US casualties.”
Since he started his second term, Trump has intervened in the domestic affairs of a handful of countries, including:
Brazil: Bolsonaro trial
On September 11, former Brazilian President Jair Bolsonaro was convicted of attempting to stage a coup in order to hold on to power after he lost the country’s 2022 elections to Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva.
Trump and Bolsonaro are close allies – the latter is often referred to as the “Trump of the south” – and Trump had very closely followed the trial. In July, Washington hit Brazilian imports with a 50 percent trade tariff and restricted US visas for Brazilian officials. Justifying the tariffs in a letter, Trump directly connected them to his anger over Bolsonaro’s trial, which was upcoming at the time and which he deemed a “witch-hunt”.
In July, Trump wrote on his Truth Social platform that Bolsonaro was “not guilty of anything, except having fought for THE PEOPLE”.
In September 9, a journalist asked White House Spokesperson Karoline Leavitt whether Trump was considering further action in response to convictions or crackdowns preventing candidates like Bolsonaro from competing in Brazilian elections, and on censorship of US social media platforms in Europe and Brazil.
Leavitt responded: “The president is unafraid to use the economic might, the military might of the United States of America to protect free speech around the world.”
India: Russian oil
In August, Trump announced an additional 25 percent trade tariff for India – bringing the total to 50 percent for most Indian goods – and linked his decision to India’s continuing purchase of Russian oil, revenues from which are funding the war in Ukraine, he said.
In late July, he posted on his Truth Social platform that India was “Russia’s largest buyer of ENERGY, along with China, at a time when everyone wants Russia to STOP THE KILLING IN UKRAINE – ALL THINGS NOT GOOD!”
This month, Trump claimed that the pressure had paid off and that Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi had pledged to stop buying oil from Russia. “That’s a big step. Now we’re going to get China to do the same thing,” Trump told reporters in the White House back then.
Since sanctions and a price cap were launched on Russian oil by the European Union in response to the war in Ukraine, India has massively increased its Russian energy imports.
The biggest importer in India of Russian seaborne crude oil is Reliance Industries (RIL), for which Russian crude comprised a mere 3 percent of total crude imports in 2021. Since the war in Ukraine, that has jumped to 50 percent in 2025, according to data from the Finland-headquartered Centre for Research on Energy and Clean Air (CREA).
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In 2023, 16.8 percent of Russian mineral products such as crude and refined petroleum went to India. These exports were worth $66.1bn. India was second only to China, which received $129bn worth, or 32.7 percent of Russian mineral exports.
Israel: Netanyahu’s corruption trial
Since 2020, Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu has been facing trial for corruption in three separate cases, which include allegations of bribery, fraud and breach of trust.
When Israel and Hamas agreed to a ceasefire deal which aims to end the war in Gaza, Trump was welcomed to the Israeli Knesset and hailed as “the president of peace”.
Speaking at the Knesset on October 13 and addressing Israeli President Isaac Herzog, Trump took the opportunity to lobby on Netanyahu’s behalf. “Mr President, why don’t you give him [Netanyahu] a pardon?”
Argentina: Propping up the economy
Trump has thrown his support behind far-right Argentinian President Javier Milei, who led his party to a landslide victory in Sunday’s legislative elections, earning a strong mandate to push forward with his overhaul of the economy, including free-market reforms and deep austerity measures.
Trump, who described Milei as a “truly fantastic and powerful leader” on October 1, may have partly given him the means to do this.
“I’m doing something I don’t often do … I’m giving my full endorsement to him,” Trump told reporters after meeting with Milei on the sidelines of the UN General Assembly (UNGA) in New York in September.
After a series of meetings with Argentina in September, the US pledged strong support – including the consideration of a $20bn bailout loan and other financial measures to help stabilise Argentina’s economy.
Iran: Nuclear programme
In June, amid Israel’s war with Iran, the US hit three key nuclear enrichment sites in Iran – Natanz, Isfahan and Fordow.
Trump’s rationale for this was that the strikes were part of a strategy to prevent Iran from refining uranium to a weapons-grade level.
“Tonight, I can report to the world that the strikes were a spectacular military success. Iran’s key nuclear enrichment facilities have been completely and totally obliterated,” Trump said in a televised address after the attack.
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