The National Hurricane Center is tracking Hurricane Melissa, which struck Jamaica at Category 5 strength Tuesday before making landfall in Eastern Cuba. As of Wednesday, Melissa was moving northeast, delivering dangerous winds, flooding rains, and storm surge to Cuba, Haiti, and the Bahamas as it heads toward Bermuda.
Hurricane Melissa
Hurricane Melissa made landfall along the southwestern coastline of Jamaica Tuesday as an extremely dangerous Category 5 storm, causing widespread impacts across the island. The hurricane then made a second landfall along Eastern Cuba early Wednesday morning at Category 4 strength. Haiti and the Dominican Republic have also experienced severe flooding and wind damage from Melissa. By Wednesday afternoon, the storm was crossing the Southeastern Bahamas as a Category 2 hurricane and tracking northeast toward Bermuda.
“At 5:00 p.m. AST, the center of Hurricane Melissa was located near latitude 22.9 North, longitude 74.8 West,” according to an afternoon update from the NHC. “Melissa is moving toward the northeast near 16 mph. An accelerating northeastward motion is expected during the next few days. On the forecast track, the core of Melissa is expected to move across the southeastern or central Bahamas Wednesday evening and is forecast to pass near or to the west of Bermuda late Thursday and Thursday night. Maximum sustained winds are near 90 mph with higher gusts. Some restrengthening is possible on Wednesday into Thursday, with weakening beginning thereafter,” the NHC said.
“Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 60 miles from the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 185 miles. The estimated minimum central pressure is 974 millibars,” the NHC continued.
Tropical alerts are in effect for the following areas:
“A Hurricane Warning is in effect for the southeastern and central Bahamas and Bermuda. A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for the Turks and Caicos Islands,” the NHC noted.
After passing near Bermuda, Melissa is forecast to accelerate northeastward and transition into an extratropical cyclone. Forecasters say portions of Atlantic Canada and eventually parts of Europe could feel the storm’s effects late this week into the weekend.
A Record-Breaking Storm
As the Source reported on Monday, Hurricane Melissa underwent “extreme rapid intensification,” resulting in the explosive cyclone. Extreme rapid intensification occurs when a cyclone experiences “an increase in maximum sustained winds of at least 50 kt., about 58 mph, in a 24-hour period,” according to ClimateCentral.org. This is an even faster rate of strengthening than “rapid intensification,” which the NHC defines as “an increase in the maximum sustained winds of a tropical cyclone of at least 30 kt., about 34 mph, in a 24-hour period.”
Hurricane Melissa ranks among the most powerful cyclones ever recorded in the Atlantic basin and is the third storm of the 2025 season to reach Category 5 strength. Tragically, the hurricane has caused casualties across parts of the Caribbean as it unleashed devastating winds and flooding.
“Melissa intensified into a Category 5 hurricane Monday, becoming the third storm of the year to be classified at the top of the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale, joining Hurricanes Erin and Humberto,” according to AccuWeather. “The system then went on to become the strongest of the three with maximum sustained winds peaking at 185 mph Tuesday morning,” AccuWeather said.
“Another key measure of a hurricane’s intensity is the central pressure, or the atmospheric pressure at the core of the eye. On Tuesday morning, Melissa’s pressure dropped to 26.34 inches of mercury (892 millibars), making it the third most intense Caribbean hurricane ever observed. Melissa is also the second strongest hurricane in terms of pressure anywhere across the Atlantic during October, behind Hurricane Wilma (26.05 inches of mercury, 882 mb),” according to AccuWeather.
Local Weather Updates
The National Weather Service in San Juan, Puerto Rico, noted that weather across the U.S. Virgin Islands and Puerto Rico will continue to be indirectly influenced by distant Hurricane Melissa, but this influence will decrease as the storm moves northeast. While no direct impacts are expected, showers and isolated thunderstorms may occur from lingering tropical moisture. A nearby area of high pressure should help limit widespread precipitation through the end of the week.
In the coming days, a tropical wave is forecast to pass near the Virgin Islands and Puerto Rico over the weekend, bringing an increased chance of showers and thunderstorms.
“The region will continue under a southeasterly wind flow as Melissa moves from the western Caribbean into the western Atlantic through at least Thursday,” the NWS said on Wednesday. “Afterward, a frontal boundary will approach the region from the west, interacting with a surface high pressure anchored across the central Atlantic around Friday, promoting the return of a moderate to locally fresh easterly wind flow,” the NWS explained.
“The greatest chance of rainfall arrives Saturday, as a tropical wave moves through, increasing the potential of moderate to heavy showers and isolated thunderstorms for the region,” the NWS added.
Hazardous marine conditions with an elevated risk of rip currents are also expected as swells generated by Hurricane Melissa reach the local islands. Additionally, warm air temperatures will continue to affect the region, which may prompt additional heat alerts.
Looking Ahead: NOAA Global Tropics Hazards Outlook
A Global Tropics Hazards Outlook was released Tuesday by NOAA’s Climate Prediction Center, and the forecast tool provides insight into potential activity across tropical basins up to three weeks in advance.
NOAA predicts that tropical development could occur across portions of the Atlantic basin near the western Caribbean and the Gulf during the “Week Two” outlook period, which runs from Nov. 5 until Nov. 11 and during the “Week Three” period, from Nov. 12 until Nov. 18.
While tropical activity is not expected to develop near the USVI in the near term, it is important to remember that this forecast is not guaranteed, and development may still happen as the forecast can change. Additionally, a recent Tropical Outlook from the Source noted that the emergence of a La Niña weather pattern could influence storm activity for the rest of the hurricane season, which ends on Nov. 30.
During a La Niña cycle, the ocean waters across the equatorial Pacific Ocean cool significantly, affecting global weather. During La Niña, wind shear— a change in wind direction and velocity with height in the atmosphere — also typically decreases in the Atlantic Ocean. A reduction in wind shear can favor cyclone development. This pattern is the opposite of El Niño, a warming of the equatorial Pacific, which usually increases wind shear in the Atlantic Ocean, helping to rip apart storms and prevent hurricane formation and intensification.
Staying Informed
USVI residents and visitors are encouraged to continue to remain prepared. Weather information is available from the NWS, the NHC, and NOAA.
The local weather forecast for the U.S. Virgin Islands is also regularly updated on the Source Weather Page and VI Source YouTube Channel. Additionally, A weekly Tropical Outlook article from the Source will be published throughout hurricane season to provide in-depth updates.
Residents and visitors can find additional weather alerts and preparedness information from the Virgin Islands Territorial Emergency Management Agency.
