October 26, 2025 - Page 5 of 7 - Virgin Islands News

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Weather

Hurricane Melissa Graphics

5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Sun, 26 Oct 2025 08:57:54 GMT

Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Sun, 26 Oct 2025 08:57:54 GMT

October 26, 2025

Weather

Hurricane Melissa Forecast Discussion Number 20

Issued at 500 AM EDT Sun Oct 26 2025 000
WTNT43 KNHC 260856
TCDAT3

Hurricane Melissa Discussion Number 20
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL132025
500 AM EDT Sun Oct 26 2025

Melissa is in the midst of a period of extreme rapid
intensification. Its intensity has increased by 50 kt over the
past 24 hours and 35 kt over the past 12 hours. Data from the last
pass of an Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft through the
eye just before 1 AM EDT indicated that maximum winds had increased
to 105 kt and the pressure had fallen to 958 mb. The eye has been
clearing out and warming since that time in infrared satellite
imagery, with the Dvorak data-T numbers from both TAFB and SAB up to
T6.0/115 kt at 2 AM EDT. The intensity is estimated to be 120 kt at
the time of this advisory based on the latest AiDT and DPRINT
estimates.

The center had taken a west-southwestward jog over the past 12
hours, but more recent frames of satellite images suggest it is now
moving westward (270 degrees) at 4 kt. There is very little change
in the forecast reasoning or the forecast track itself. Over the
next 48 hours, Melissa is expected to make a slow westward to
north-northeastward recurvature just to the south of Jamaica, likely
reaching the island’s southern coast Tuesday morning. An
acceleration toward the northeast is expected after 48 hours when
Melissa is picked up by a trough moving off the southeast coast of
the United States, and this motion should bring the center across
southeastern Cuba late Tuesday or early Wednesday, across the
southeastern Bahamas later on Wednesday, and then reaching the
vicinity of Bermuda on Friday.

It’s assumed that the current period of rapid intensification will
continue, and Melissa could reach category 5 intensity by tonight.
An eyewall replacement would be likely to occur at some point over
the next couple of days, which would cause a decrease or at least
fluctuations in Melissa’s intensity after 24 hours. Regardless,
Melissa is forecast to reach Jamaica as a category 4 hurricane,
which will only compound any damages caused by heavy rainfall and
flooding over the next 2 days. Melissa is likely to weaken a
little during its passage across Jamaica, but intensity guidance
suggests that it will likely still be a major hurricane when it
reaches southeastern Cuba late Tuesday and the southeastern Bahamas
on Wednesday. Stronger shear should cause the storm to weaken
below major hurricane strength on days 4 and 5 while over the
western Atlantic.

Key Messages:

1. Jamaica: Seek shelter now. Damaging winds and heavy rainfall
today and on Monday will cause catastrophic and life-threatening
flash flooding and numerous landslides before the strongest winds
arrive Monday night and Tuesday morning. Extensive infrastructural
damage, long-duration power and communication outages, and isolation
of communities are expected. Life-threatening storm surge is likely
along portions of the southern coast Monday night and Tuesday
morning.

2. Haiti: Catastrophic and life-threatening flash flooding and
landslides are expected across southwestern Haiti through midweek,
likely causing extensive infrastructural damage and isolation
of communities. Although winds are temporarily decreasing on the
Tiburon peninsula, they could increase again across much of western
Haiti on Tuesday.

3. Dominican Republic: Heavy rainfall through midweek could produce
catastrophic flash flooding and numerous landslides in southern
portions of the country.

4. Eastern Cuba, Southeast Bahamas, and the Turks and Caicos:
Monitor Melissa closely. There is an increasing risk of a
significant storm surge, damaging winds, and heavy rainfall by the
middle of the week. In eastern Cuba, the risk of life-threatening
flash flooding and landslides is increasing. A Hurricane Watch is in
effect for portions of eastern Cuba.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 26/0900Z 16.3N 76.3W 120 KT 140 MPH
12H 26/1800Z 16.3N 76.8W 130 KT 150 MPH
24H 27/0600Z 16.5N 77.5W 140 KT 160 MPH
36H 27/1800Z 16.8N 77.9W 140 KT 160 MPH
48H 28/0600Z 17.5N 77.7W 135 KT 155 MPH…JUST SOUTH OF JAMAICA
60H 28/1800Z 18.7N 76.8W 120 KT 140 MPH…JUST NORTH OF JAMAICA
72H 29/0600Z 20.5N 75.4W 105 KT 120 MPH…OVER SE CUBA
96H 30/0600Z 24.8N 71.6W 95 KT 110 MPH…OVER WATER
120H 31/0600Z 30.3N 66.2W 80 KT 90 MPH

$$
Forecaster Berg

October 26, 2025

Weather

Hurricane Melissa Public Advisory Number 20

Issued at 500 AM EDT Sun Oct 26 2025 000
WTNT33 KNHC 260855
TCPAT3

BULLETIN
Hurricane Melissa Advisory Number 20
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL132025
500 AM EDT Sun Oct 26 2025

…MELISSA NOW A CATEGORY 4 HURRICANE…
…LIFE-THREATENING AND CATASTROPHIC FLASH FLOODING AND LANDSLIDES
EXPECTED IN PORTIONS OF JAMAICA AND SOUTHERN HISPANIOLA THROUGH
MIDWEEK…

SUMMARY OF 500 AM EDT…0900 UTC…INFORMATION
———————————————-
LOCATION…16.3N 76.3W
ABOUT 120 MI…195 KM SSE OF KINGSTON JAMAICA
ABOUT 280 MI…450 KM SSW OF GUANTANAMO CUBA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS…140 MPH…220 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT…W OR 270 DEGREES AT 5 MPH…7 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE…944 MB…27.88 INCHES

WATCHES AND WARNINGS
——————–
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Hurricane Warning is in effect for…
* Jamaica

A Hurricane Watch is in effect for…
* Southwestern peninsula of Haiti from the border with the
Dominican Republic to Port-Au-Prince
* Cuban provinces of Granma, Santiago de Cuba, Guantanamo, and
Holguin.

A Tropical Storm Warning in effect for…
* Southwestern peninsula of Haiti from the border with the
Dominican Republic to Port-Au-Prince

A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected
somewhere within the warning area. A warning is typically issued
36 hours before the anticipated first occurrence of
tropical-storm-force winds, conditions that make outside
preparations difficult or dangerous. Preparations to protect life
and property should be complete.

A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible
within the watch area.

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours.

Interests elsewhere in Haiti, the Dominican Republic, Cuba, the
southeastern and central Bahamas, and the Turks and Caicos Islands
should monitor the progress of Melissa.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.

DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
———————-
At 500 AM EDT (0900 UTC), the center of Hurricane Melissa was
located near latitude 16.3 North, longitude 76.3 West. Melissa is
moving toward the west near 5 mph (7 km/h). A slow westward motion
is expected today, followed by a turn to the north and northeast on
Monday and Tuesday. On the forecast track, the center of Melissa is
expected to move near or over Jamaica through Tuesday, across
southeastern Cuba Tuesday night, and across the southeastern
Bahamas on Wednesday.

Satellite images indicate that maximum sustained winds have rapidly
increased to near 140 mph (220 km/h) with higher gusts. Melissa is
a category 4 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale.
Continued rapid intensification is expected through tonight,
followed by fluctuations in intensity. Melissa is expected to be a
major hurricane when making landfall in Jamaica Monday night or
Tuesday morning and southeastern Cuba late Tuesday.

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 25 miles (35 km) from the
center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 175 miles
(280 km).

The estimated minimum central pressure is 944 mb (27.88 inches).

HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
———————-
Key messages for Melissa can be found in the Tropical Cyclone
Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT3 and WMO header WTNT43 KNHC.

WIND: Tropical storm conditions are likely occuring in Jamaica,
with hurricane conditions expected by Monday. Tropical storm
conditions are expected in the warning area in Haiti today. The
potential for hurricane conditions in the watch area in Haiti
have diminished for today, but there is still a possibility of
hurricane conditions occurring there on Tuesday. Hurricane
conditions are possible in the watch area in eastern Cuba on Tuesday
into Wednesday.

RAINFALL: Melissa is expected to bring total rainfall of 15 to 30
inches to portions of southern Hispaniola and Jamaica into
Wednesday, with local maxima of 40 inches possible. Additional
heavy rainfall is likely beyond Wednesday; uncertainty at that time
range precludes exact storm totals. Catastrophic flash flooding and
landslides are probable across portions of southern Hispaniola and
Jamaica.

For eastern Cuba, total rainfall of 6 to 12 inches, with local
amounts to 18 inches, are expected into Wednesday resulting in
life-threatening flash flooding and landslides. Additional heavy
rainfall is likely beyond Wednesday; uncertainty at that time range
precludes exact storm totals.

For a complete depiction of forecast rainfall associated with
Melissa, please see the National Weather Service Storm Total
Rainfall Graphic, available at
hurricanes.gov/graphics_at3.shtml?rainqpf

STORM SURGE: Life-threatening storm surge is likely along the south
coast of Jamaica late Monday through Tuesday morning. Peak
storm surge heights could reach 9 to 13 feet above ground level,
near and to the east of where the center of Melissa makes landfall.
This storm surge will be accompanied by large and destructive waves.

There is a potential for significant storm surge along the
southeast coast of Cuba late Tuesday or Wednesday.

SURF: Swells generated by Melissa are expected to affect portions of
Hispaniola, Jamaica, eastern Cuba, and the Cayman Islands during the
next several days. These swells are likely to cause
life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult
products from your local weather office.

NEXT ADVISORY
————-
Next intermediate advisory at 800 AM EDT.
Next complete advisory at 1100 AM EDT.

$$
Forecaster Berg

October 26, 2025

Weather

Hurricane Melissa Wind Speed Probabilities Number 20

Issued at 0900 UTC SUN OCT 26 2025 000
FONT13 KNHC 260855
PWSAT3

HURRICANE MELISSA WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 20
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL132025
0900 UTC SUN OCT 26 2025

AT 0900Z THE CENTER OF HURRICANE MELISSA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE
16.3 NORTH…LONGITUDE 76.3 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR
120 KTS…140 MPH…220 KM/H.

Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH)
ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)…SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME
EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)…SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME
CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)…SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME

WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS

CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST
…34 KT (39 MPH… 63 KM/H)…
…50 KT (58 MPH… 93 KM/H)…
…64 KT (74 MPH…119 KM/H)…
FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS

PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE
OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING
AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY)
(CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN
06Z SUN AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY)

PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT
X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT
PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN
THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT.
PROBABILITIES FOR 34…50…64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY
64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT.

– – – – WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS – – – –

FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM
TIME 06Z SUN 18Z SUN 06Z MON 18Z MON 06Z TUE 06Z WED 06Z THU
PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO
18Z SUN 06Z MON 18Z MON 06Z TUE 06Z WED 06Z THU 06Z FRI

FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120)
– – – – – – – – – – – – – – – – – – – – – – – – – – – – – – – – – –
LOCATION KT

BERMUDA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 28(28)
BERMUDA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 11(11)
BERMUDA 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4)

GRAND BAHAMA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) X( 3)

NEW PROVIDENCE 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 8(11) X(11)
NEW PROVIDENCE 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) X( 2)
NEW PROVIDENCE 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1)

ANDROS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 7( 7) 7(14) 1(15)
ANDROS 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) X( 4)
ANDROS 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) X( 2)

GREAT EXUMA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 19(19) 23(42) X(42)
GREAT EXUMA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 16(20) X(20)
GREAT EXUMA 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 10(12) X(12)

SAN SALVADOR 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 11(11) 43(54) 2(56)
SAN SALVADOR 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 27(28) 1(29)
SAN SALVADOR 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 15(16) 1(17)

MAYAGUANA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 25(25) 53(78) 2(80)
MAYAGUANA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 41(46) 1(47)
MAYAGUANA 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 25(26) 1(27)

GRAND TURK 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 11(11) 35(46) 1(47)
GRAND TURK 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 16(17) X(17)
GRAND TURK 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 8( 8) X( 8)

CIENFUEGOS 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 4( 5) 1( 6) X( 6)

CAMAGUEY 34 X 1( 1) 1( 2) 2( 4) 18(22) 3(25) X(25)
CAMAGUEY 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 7( 7) 1( 8) X( 8)
CAMAGUEY 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) X( 3) X( 3)

GUANTANAMO BAY 34 1 1( 2) 1( 3) 4( 7) 58(65) 6(71) X(71)
GUANTANAMO BAY 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 35(35) 6(41) X(41)
GUANTANAMO BAY 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 18(18) 4(22) X(22)

GRAND CAYMAN 34 X 1( 1) 2( 3) 4( 7) 3(10) X(10) X(10)

MONTEGO BAY 34 3 29(32) 30(62) 28(90) 7(97) X(97) X(97)
MONTEGO BAY 50 X 2( 2) 8(10) 35(45) 24(69) X(69) X(69)
MONTEGO BAY 64 X X( X) 3( 3) 21(24) 22(46) X(46) X(46)

KINGSTON 34 63 20(83) 5(88) 6(94) 3(97) X(97) X(97)
KINGSTON 50 1 5( 6) 10(16) 31(47) 22(69) X(69) X(69)
KINGSTON 64 X 1( 1) 4( 5) 18(23) 23(46) 1(47) X(47)

LES CAYES 34 1 1( 2) 2( 4) 2( 6) 21(27) 2(29) X(29)
LES CAYES 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) 1( 7) X( 7)
LES CAYES 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) X( 2) X( 2)

PORT-AU-PRINCE 34 1 X( 1) X( 1) 2( 3) 21(24) 6(30) X(30)
PORT-AU-PRINCE 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 2( 5) X( 5)
PORT-AU-PRINCE 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) X( 1)

CAPE BEATA 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 6( 7) 3(10) X(10)

PUERTO PLATA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 8( 8) 13(21) 1(22)
PUERTO PLATA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) X( 3)

SANTO DOMINGO 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 4( 6) X( 6)

$$
FORECASTER BERG

October 26, 2025

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Weather

Hurricane Melissa Forecast Advisory Number 20

Issued at 0900 UTC SUN OCT 26 2025 000
WTNT23 KNHC 260855
TCMAT3

HURRICANE MELISSA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 20
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL132025
0900 UTC SUN OCT 26 2025

HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 16.3N 76.3W AT 26/0900Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 10 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 270 DEGREES AT 4 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 944 MB
EYE DIAMETER 15 NM
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 120 KT WITH GUSTS TO 145 KT.
64 KT……. 20NE 15SE 15SW 20NW.
50 KT……. 30NE 30SE 20SW 30NW.
34 KT…….150NE 110SE 50SW 80NW.
4 M SEAS….150NE 120SE 90SW 90NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT…CENTER LOCATED NEAR 16.3N 76.3W AT 26/0900Z
AT 26/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 16.3N 76.1W

FORECAST VALID 26/1800Z 16.3N 76.8W
MAX WIND 130 KT…GUSTS 160 KT.
64 KT… 25NE 20SE 15SW 20NW.
50 KT… 40NE 40SE 30SW 40NW.
34 KT…160NE 120SE 60SW 90NW.

FORECAST VALID 27/0600Z 16.5N 77.5W
MAX WIND 140 KT…GUSTS 170 KT.
64 KT… 30NE 25SE 20SW 25NW.
50 KT… 50NE 40SE 30SW 40NW.
34 KT…160NE 130SE 60SW 100NW.

FORECAST VALID 27/1800Z 16.8N 77.9W
MAX WIND 140 KT…GUSTS 170 KT.
64 KT… 30NE 25SE 20SW 25NW.
50 KT… 50NE 50SE 30SW 40NW.
34 KT…160NE 130SE 60SW 110NW.

FORECAST VALID 28/0600Z 17.5N 77.7W
MAX WIND 135 KT…GUSTS 165 KT.
64 KT… 30NE 25SE 20SW 25NW.
50 KT… 60NE 60SE 30SW 40NW.
34 KT…140NE 140SE 70SW 100NW.

FORECAST VALID 28/1800Z 18.7N 76.8W
MAX WIND 120 KT…GUSTS 145 KT.
64 KT… 30NE 30SE 20SW 20NW.
50 KT… 60NE 60SE 40SW 40NW.
34 KT…130NE 150SE 80SW 90NW.

FORECAST VALID 29/0600Z 20.5N 75.4W…INLAND
MAX WIND 105 KT…GUSTS 130 KT.
64 KT… 35NE 40SE 25SW 20NW.
50 KT… 60NE 70SE 40SW 40NW.
34 KT…130NE 150SE 90SW 90NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE…ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 125 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5…AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 30/0600Z 24.8N 71.6W…OVER WATER
MAX WIND 95 KT…GUSTS 115 KT.
50 KT… 70NE 80SE 50SW 50NW.
34 KT…130NE 150SE 110SW 90NW.

OUTLOOK VALID 31/0600Z 30.3N 66.2W
MAX WIND 80 KT…GUSTS 100 KT.
50 KT… 70NE 80SE 60SW 50NW.
34 KT…120NE 160SE 130SW 90NW.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 16.3N 76.3W

INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY…WTNT33 KNHC/MIATCPAT3…AT 26/1200Z

NEXT ADVISORY AT 26/1500Z

$$
FORECASTER BERG

October 26, 2025

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