October 25, 2025 - Page 3 of 15 - Virgin Islands News

Weather

Hurricane Melissa Graphics

5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Sat, 25 Oct 2025 21:01:57 GMT

Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Sat, 25 Oct 2025 21:01:57 GMT

October 25, 2025

Weather

Hurricane Melissa Public Advisory Number 18

Issued at 500 PM EDT Sat Oct 25 2025 000
WTNT33 KNHC 252101 CCA
TCPAT3

BULLETIN
Hurricane Melissa Advisory Number 18…Corrected
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL132025
500 PM EDT Sat Oct 25 2025

Corrected to update watch and warning summary.

…MELISSA LIKELY STARTING TO RAPIDLY INTENSIFY AND EXPECTED TO
BECOME A MAJOR HURRICANE TOMORROW…
…LIFE-THREATENING AND CATASTROPHIC FLASH FLOODING AND LANDSLIDES
EXPECTED IN PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN HISPANIOLA AND JAMAICA INTO EARLY
NEXT WEEK…

SUMMARY OF 500 PM EDT…2100 UTC…INFORMATION
———————————————-
LOCATION…16.6N 75.5W
ABOUT 130 MI…210 KM SE OF KINGSTON JAMAICA
ABOUT 250 MI…405 KM WSW OF PORT AU PRINCE HAITI
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS…90 MPH…150 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT…W OR 275 DEGREES AT 3 MPH…6 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE…974 MB…28.77 INCHES

WATCHES AND WARNINGS
——————–
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

The government of Cuba has issued a Hurricane Watch for the Cuban
provinces of Granma, Santiago de Cuba, Guantanamo, and Holguin.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Hurricane Warning is in effect for…
* Jamaica

A Hurricane Watch is in effect for…
* Southwestern peninsula of Haiti from the border with the
Dominican Republic to Port-Au-Prince
* Cuban provinces of Granma, Santiago de Cuba, Guantanamo, and
Holguin.

A Tropical Storm Warning in effect for…
* Southwestern peninsula of Haiti from the border with the
Dominican Republic to Port-Au-Prince

A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected
somewhere within the warning area. A warning is typically issued
36 hours before the anticipated first occurrence of
tropical-storm-force winds, conditions that make outside
preparations difficult or dangerous. Preparations to protect life
and property should be rushed to completion.

A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible
within the watch area.

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours.

Interests elsewhere in Haiti, the Dominican Republic, Cuba, the
southeastern and central Bahamas, and the Turks and Caicos Islands
should monitor the progress of Melissa.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products
issued by your national meteorological service.

DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
———————-
At 500 PM EDT (2100 UTC), the center of Hurricane Melissa was
located near latitude 16.6 North, longitude 75.5 West. Melissa is
moving toward slowly the west near 3 mph (6 km/h). A slow westward
motion is expected tonight through the end of the weekend. A turn to
the north and northeast is forecast on Monday and Tuesday. On the
forecast track, the center of Melissa is expected to move near or
over Jamaica during the weekend and early next week, and it could be
near or over eastern Cuba by the middle of next week.

Maximum sustained winds have increased to near 90 mph (150 km/h)
with higher gusts. Rapid intensification is forecast to continue
over the next day or so and Melissa is forecast to become a major
hurricane tomorrow and is expected to still be a major hurricane
when making landfall in Jamaica early next week.

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 15 miles (30 km) from the
center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 160 miles
(260 km).

The estimated minimum central pressure is 974 mb (28.77 inches).

HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
———————-
Key messages for Melissa can be found in the Tropical Cyclone
Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT3 and WMO header WTNT43 KNHC.

WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected to begin in Jamaica by
tonight, with hurricane conditions expected by Sunday or Monday.
Tropical storm conditions are expected and hurricane conditions are
possible within the watch and warning area in Haiti later today.
Hurricane conditions are possible in the watch area in eastern Cuba
on Tuesday into Wednesday.

RAINFALL: Melissa is expected to bring total rainfall of 15 to 30
inches to portions of southern Hispaniola and Jamaica into
Wednesday, with local maxima of 40 inches possible. Additional
heavy rainfall is likely beyond Wednesday, but exact storm totals
are still uncertain. Catastrophic flash flooding and landslides are
probable across portions of southern Hispaniola and Jamaica.

For eastern Cuba, total rainfall of 6 to 12 inches, with local
amounts to 18 inches, are expected into Wednesday resulting in
life-threatening flash flooding and landslides. Additional heavy
rainfall is likely beyond Wednesday, but exact storm totals
are still uncertain.

For a complete depiction of forecast rainfall associated with
Melissa, please see the National Weather Service Storm Total
Rainfall Graphic, available at
hurricanes.gov/graphics_at3.shtml?rainqpf

STORM SURGE: Life-threatening storm surge is becoming more likely
along the south coast of Jamaica later in the weekend or early next
week. Peak storm surge heights could reach 9 to 13 feet above
ground level, near and to the east of where the center of Melissa
makes landfall. This storm surge will be accompanied by large and
destructive waves.

There is a potential for significant storm surge along the
southeast coast of Cuba early next week.

SURF: Swells generated by Melissa are expected to affect portions
of Hispaniola, Jamaica, and eastern Cuba during the next several
days. Please consult products from your local weather office.

NEXT ADVISORY
————-
Next intermediate advisory at 800 PM EDT.
Next complete advisory at 1100 PM EDT.

$$
Forecaster Papin

October 25, 2025

Weather

Hurricane Melissa Forecast Discussion Number 18

Issued at 500 PM EDT Sat Oct 25 2025 000
WTNT43 KNHC 252100
TCDAT3

Hurricane Melissa Discussion Number 18
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL132025
500 PM EDT Sat Oct 25 2025

Melissa is likely beginning a period of rapid intensification (RI).
Since both the NOAA-P3 and Air Force Reserve C-130 aircraft sampled
the system this morning, the satellite presentation has continued to
improve, with cold -75 to -80 C cloud tops wrapping around the
center with hints of an eye starting to appear on visible images.
The eye is also becoming better defined on radar images out of
Jamaica with an overall diameter of around 20 n mi. In addition, an
earlier GMI microwave pass received after the prior advisory showed
a well-defined cyan ring on the 37-GHz, which is often a harbinger
of RI. Subjective Dvorak intensity estimates were T5.0/90 kt from
SAB, and T4.5/77 kt from TAFB. The objective estimates from UW-CIMSS
were a little lower, but are also quickly rising, and the initial
intensity will be set at 80 kt this advisory, blending these
intensity estimates.

The hurricane now appears to be moving slowly westward, at an
estimated motion of 275/3 kt. A narrow mid-level ridge has built in
to the north of Melissa, and should be the main steering feature
over the next 24-48 hours to help move the hurricane slowly
westward. The deep-layer steering vector still has a slight
southward component, and it wouldn’t be surprising to even see a
little south of due west motion occur, like the Google DeepMind
ensembles and ECMWF-AI model have been suggesting in the short-term
forecast. After the next couple of days, the ridging to the north
becomes quickly eroded by a shortwave trough moving across the
southeastern United States. The net result of this changing synoptic
pattern is that Melissa is expected to turn rather abruptly
northward and northeastward by the early to middle part of next
week. Compared to this morning, the track guidance has become more
tightly clustered in the across track direction, and even the 12z
GFS run, which was previous a eastward outlier, is now in better
agreement with the track guidance suite showing a direct landfall in
Jamaica. The main uncertainty is related to the amount of
acceleration that Melissa will undergo after it turns to the
northeast, and there remains large spread in the along-track
direction in both the deterministic and ensemble guidance in the day
3-5 time frame. The NHC track forecast is only slightly more
poleward compared to the prior forecast over the first 12-24 hours,
and convergences very close to the prior track thereafter. This
track is roughly a blend of the latest HCCA and GDMI track guidance.
On this track, this brings Melissa’s core near Jamaica early on
Tuesday, and early on Wednesday along the eastern Cuba provinces,
where a hurricane watch is now in effect.

Rapid intensification appears to have started, and assuming Melissa
stays far enough south of Jamaica over the next couple of days,
there appear few impediments to its intensification in the
short-term. Both the hurricane-regional models and the Google
DeepMind ensembles suggest RI could continue for the next 36 to 48
hours. In fact, once again 4/5th s of the latter 50 member ensemble
are forecasting a peak intensity of Category 5 intensity. The 12z
HAFS-A run also showed a peak intensity of Category 5 in 48 hours,
and both HAFS-A/B have been suggesting a similar peak on and off
over the past few days. Given the current trends, the NHC intensity
forecast now shows a 140 kt peak in 48 hours, in general agreement
with this aggressive guidance. Afterwards, some inner-core
oscillations such as eyewall replacement cycles could lead to
fluctuations in intensity before its first landfall in Jamaica. It
is worth stressing that there is very little practical difference
in the overall impacts of a Category 4 or 5 landfall, and
Melissa is expected to be at least that intensity when moves over
Jamaica early next week. Land interaction will likely lead to some
weakening as it moves northeastward across Jamaica, but the storm
will likely also grow in size and is still forecast to be a major
hurricane when it moves over Cuba by the middle of this week. Only
after this period that southwesterly shear begins to increase in
earnest after it moves into the Southwestern Atlantic. The NHC
intensity forecast continues to be on the high end of the overall
guidance, siding with the higher intensity aids such as GDMI (which
has been the best preforming intensity guidance thus far this year)
and HAFS-A, but all the hurricane-regional models show a peak
intensity of at least Category 4 intensity.

Needless to say, there is a very serious situation, in terms of
catastrophic rainfall, wind, and storm surge hazards for Jamaica
and preparations should be rushed to completion in the area
currently under a Hurricane Warning.

Key Messages:

1. Jamaica: A multi-day period of damaging winds and heavy
rainfall is expected to begin tonight, causing catastrophic and
life-threatening flash flooding and numerous landslides. Extensive
infrastructural damage, long-duration power and communication
outages, and potentially prolonged isolation of communities is
likely. A life-threatening storm surge is also likely along
portions of the southern coast early next week. All preparations
should be completed today.

2. Haiti: Catastrophic and life-threatening flash flooding and
landslides are expected across southwestern Haiti into early next
week, likely causing extensive infrastructural damage and
potentially prolonged isolation of communities. Strong winds could
also potentially last for a day or more over the Tiburon peninsula.

3. Dominican Republic: Heavy rainfall could produce catastrophic
flash flooding and numerous landslides in southern portions of the
country.

4. Eastern Cuba, Southeast Bahamas, and the Turks and Caicos:
Monitor Melissa closely. There is an increasing risk of a
significant storm surge, damaging winds, and heavy rainfall by the
middle of next week. In eastern Cuba, the risk of life-threatening
flash flooding and landslides is increasing. A Hurricane Watch is
now in effect for portions of eastern Cuba.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 25/2100Z 16.6N 75.5W 80 KT 90 MPH
12H 26/0600Z 16.7N 75.9W 100 KT 115 MPH
24H 26/1800Z 16.7N 76.5W 115 KT 130 MPH
36H 27/0600Z 16.7N 77.2W 135 KT 155 MPH
48H 27/1800Z 16.9N 77.6W 140 KT 160 MPH
60H 28/0600Z 17.6N 77.4W 130 KT 150 MPH
72H 28/1800Z 18.8N 76.7W 115 KT 130 MPH
96H 29/1800Z 22.0N 73.4W 90 KT 105 MPH
120H 30/1800Z 27.0N 69.0W 80 KT 90 MPH

$$
Forecaster Papin

October 25, 2025

Weather

Hurricane Melissa Wind Speed Probabilities Number 18

Issued at 2100 UTC SAT OCT 25 2025 000
FONT13 KNHC 252056
PWSAT3

HURRICANE MELISSA WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 18
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL132025
2100 UTC SAT OCT 25 2025

AT 2100Z THE CENTER OF HURRICANE MELISSA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE
16.6 NORTH…LONGITUDE 75.5 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR
80 KTS…90 MPH…150 KM/H.

Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH)
ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)…SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME
EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)…SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME
CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)…SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME

WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS

CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST
…34 KT (39 MPH… 63 KM/H)…
…50 KT (58 MPH… 93 KM/H)…
…64 KT (74 MPH…119 KM/H)…
FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS

PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE
OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING
AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY)
(CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN
18Z SAT AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY)

PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT
X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT
PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN
THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT.
PROBABILITIES FOR 34…50…64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY
64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT.

– – – – WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS – – – –

FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM
TIME 18Z SAT 06Z SUN 18Z SUN 06Z MON 18Z MON 18Z TUE 18Z WED
PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO
06Z SUN 18Z SUN 06Z MON 18Z MON 18Z TUE 18Z WED 18Z THU

FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120)
– – – – – – – – – – – – – – – – – – – – – – – – – – – – – – – – – –
LOCATION KT

BERMUDA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 7( 7)

NEW PROVIDENCE 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 6( 7) 3(10)

ANDROS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 10(12) 2(14)
ANDROS 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) X( 3)
ANDROS 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2)

GREAT EXUMA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 24(28) 5(33)
GREAT EXUMA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 12(12) 3(15)
GREAT EXUMA 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) 2( 8)

SAN SALVADOR 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 27(28) 11(39)
SAN SALVADOR 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 11(11) 6(17)
SAN SALVADOR 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 6(11)

MAYAGUANA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 51(54) 14(68)
MAYAGUANA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 27(27) 11(38)
MAYAGUANA 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 13(13) 7(20)

GRAND TURK 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 36(37) 15(52)
GRAND TURK 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 13(13) 8(21)
GRAND TURK 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) 4(10)

CIENFUEGOS 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 4( 5) 3( 8) X( 8)

CAMAGUEY 34 X 1( 1) 1( 2) 2( 4) 11(15) 12(27) X(27)
CAMAGUEY 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 6( 9) X( 9)
CAMAGUEY 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) X( 4)

GUANTANAMO BAY 34 2 2( 4) 2( 6) 2( 8) 27(35) 31(66) 2(68)
GUANTANAMO BAY 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 8( 8) 24(32) 1(33)
GUANTANAMO BAY 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 13(17) X(17)

GRAND CAYMAN 34 X X( X) 2( 2) 4( 6) 6(12) 1(13) X(13)

MONTEGO BAY 34 4 20(24) 27(51) 18(69) 26(95) 1(96) X(96)
MONTEGO BAY 50 1 2( 3) 6( 9) 13(22) 45(67) 4(71) X(71)
MONTEGO BAY 64 X X( X) 2( 2) 4( 6) 38(44) 3(47) X(47)

KINGSTON 34 58 27(85) 7(92) 2(94) 4(98) X(98) X(98)
KINGSTON 50 3 17(20) 13(33) 7(40) 32(72) 2(74) X(74)
KINGSTON 64 1 5( 6) 7(13) 5(18) 30(48) 3(51) X(51)

LES CAYES 34 4 3( 7) 2( 9) 2(11) 14(25) 13(38) X(38)
LES CAYES 50 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) 6(10) X(10)
LES CAYES 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) X( 4)

PORT-AU-PRINCE 34 2 3( 5) 1( 6) 1( 7) 10(17) 19(36) 1(37)
PORT-AU-PRINCE 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 7( 8) X( 8)
PORT-AU-PRINCE 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) X( 3)

CAPE BEATA 34 2 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) 3( 6) 10(16) 1(17)

PUERTO PLATA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 21(22) 5(27)
PUERTO PLATA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 1( 6)
PUERTO PLATA 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2)

SANTO DOMINGO 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 7( 7) 2( 9)

$$
FORECASTER PAPIN

October 25, 2025

Weather

Hurricane Melissa Forecast Advisory Number 18

Issued at 2100 UTC SAT OCT 25 2025 000
WTNT23 KNHC 252054
TCMAT3

HURRICANE MELISSA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 18
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL132025
2100 UTC SAT OCT 25 2025

HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 16.6N 75.5W AT 25/2100Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 275 DEGREES AT 3 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 974 MB
EYE DIAMETER 20 NM
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 80 KT WITH GUSTS TO 90 KT.
64 KT……. 15NE 10SE 10SW 15NW.
50 KT……. 30NE 30SE 20SW 30NW.
34 KT…….140NE 110SE 40SW 80NW.
4 M SEAS….120NE 90SE 60SW 105NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT…CENTER LOCATED NEAR 16.6N 75.5W AT 25/2100Z
AT 25/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 16.6N 75.2W

FORECAST VALID 26/0600Z 16.7N 75.9W
MAX WIND 100 KT…GUSTS 115 KT.
64 KT… 25NE 20SE 15SW 25NW.
50 KT… 45NE 40SE 30SW 35NW.
34 KT…160NE 110SE 60SW 90NW.

FORECAST VALID 26/1800Z 16.7N 76.5W
MAX WIND 115 KT…GUSTS 140 KT.
64 KT… 30NE 25SE 20SW 25NW.
50 KT… 55NE 45SE 30SW 45NW.
34 KT…150NE 120SE 50SW 90NW.

FORECAST VALID 27/0600Z 16.7N 77.2W
MAX WIND 135 KT…GUSTS 165 KT.
64 KT… 30NE 25SE 20SW 25NW.
50 KT… 50NE 40SE 35SW 40NW.
34 KT…150NE 140SE 60SW 100NW.

FORECAST VALID 27/1800Z 16.9N 77.6W
MAX WIND 140 KT…GUSTS 170 KT.
64 KT… 30NE 25SE 20SW 25NW.
50 KT… 55NE 50SE 35SW 45NW.
34 KT…150NE 140SE 60SW 110NW.

FORECAST VALID 28/0600Z 17.6N 77.4W
MAX WIND 130 KT…GUSTS 160 KT.
64 KT… 30NE 30SE 20SW 25NW.
50 KT… 60NE 55SE 40SW 50NW.
34 KT…140NE 130SE 70SW 100NW.

FORECAST VALID 28/1800Z 18.8N 76.7W…BETWEEN JAMAICA AND E CUBA
MAX WIND 115 KT…GUSTS 140 KT.
64 KT… 30NE 35SE 20SW 20NW.
50 KT… 65NE 70SE 40SW 45NW.
34 KT…130NE 150SE 80SW 100NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE…ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 125 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5…AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 29/1800Z 22.0N 73.4W…NEAR THE SE BAHAMAS
MAX WIND 90 KT…GUSTS 110 KT.
50 KT… 65NE 75SE 55SW 50NW.
34 KT…120NE 150SE 90SW 80NW.

OUTLOOK VALID 30/1800Z 27.0N 69.0W
MAX WIND 80 KT…GUSTS 100 KT.
50 KT… 80NE 90SE 60SW 50NW.
34 KT…120NE 170SE 120SW 100NW.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 16.6N 75.5W

INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY…WTNT33 KNHC/MIATCPAT3…AT 26/0000Z

NEXT ADVISORY AT 26/0300Z

$$
FORECASTER PAPIN

October 25, 2025

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