October 24, 2025 - Page 5 of 24 - Virgin Islands News

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Weather

Tropical Storm Melissa Graphics

5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Fri, 24 Oct 2025 20:56:05 GMT

Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Fri, 24 Oct 2025 20:56:05 GMT

October 24, 2025

Weather

Tropical Storm Melissa Forecast Discussion Number 14

Issued at 500 PM EDT Fri Oct 24 2025 000
WTNT43 KNHC 242054
TCDAT3

Tropical Storm Melissa Discussion Number 14
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL132025
500 PM EDT Fri Oct 24 2025

After the previous advisory, the last couple of aircraft fixes from
the C-130 indicated that Melissa likely completed a center
relocation as a very large burst of deep convection with cloud tops
below -90C rotated up-shear of the center. This evolution was also
nicely captured on the GOES-19 mesoscale sector, where GLM lightning
flashes, which had been parked down-shear earlier in the morning,
started to rotate cyclonically along Melissa’s eastern flank,
indicating convection was finally starting to wrap around the
low-level vortex. A GMI microwave pass at 1527 UTC also hinted at a
nascent inner core feature on the 37 GHz channel as the convective
burst wrapped around the center. Before the Air Force Hurricane
Hunters left Melissa, they measured a peak flight level wind of 59
kt, and a pressure down to 997 mb, supporting the 50 kt intensity
for the intermediate advisory. However, given the improvement of
Melissa’s structure since that time, the initial intensity is being
raised to 55 kt for this advisory, in best agreement with the
T3.5/55-kt Dvorak intensity estimate provided by TAFB. Another Air
Force Reserve and a NOAA-P3 reconnaissance mission will be in the
storm tonight to provide more data on Melissa’s intensity and
structure.

Now that the center is becoming better aligned with its mid-level
vortex, it also appears the tropical storm has finally turned more
northward, with an estimated motion of 360/2 kt. The synoptic track
reasoning remains similar to this morning, with a slow motion
expected to continue in the short-term due light steering currents,
due to competing mid-level ridges to the southeast and northwest of
Melissa. After 24 hours, the mid-level ridge located to the
northwest is expected to strengthen to the north of Melissa, and the
guidance is coming into better agreement on a very slow westward
motion through 72 hours. Beyond that time frame, a strengthening
mid-latitude trough expected to move into the Southeastern U.S.,
providing a path for Melissa to turn northeastward out of the
Caribbean Sea into the southwestern Atlantic by the end of the
forecast period. The track guidance this cycle has shifted a bit
eastward beyond day 3, and is also notably faster than before.
However, it should be stressed that there remains a substantial
amount of along track spread. On the forecast track, Melissa could
potentially be near Jamaica by day 4 and move across Cuba before the
end of the forecast period, though the timing of this track remains
more uncertain than usual.

Compared to yesterday, the UW-CIMSS shear estimates have dropped
from 25 kt a day ago to 15 kt currently with mid-level shear also
decreasing. This reduction in shear, in combination with the
dramatically improved structure of Melissa this afternoon, suggests
that the system is ready to take advantage of other favorable
environmental conditions (30-31 C sea-surface temperatures, a
moistening deep-layer environment). The intensity guidance is
sharply higher this afternoon in the short-term, and it appears that
Melissa could begin a period of rapid intensification (RI) at any
time. The NHC intensity forecast responds to this guidance change by
explicitly show RI earlier and continuing over the weekend. The
forecast now shows a 135 kt peak in 60 h, and there is a distinct
possibility that Melissa could become a Category 5 hurricane during
this time period. In fact, the latest 12z Google DeepMind ensemble
distribution shows the majority of its members reaching this lofty
intensity. After that time period, inner-core structural changes are
likely to cause fluctuations in intensity, and land interaction in
both Jamaica and Cuba will likely lead to some weakening by the end
of the forecast. The NHC intensity forecast is on the high side of
the guidance envelope, and closest too the Google DeepMind ensemble
mean (GDMI).

Key Messages:

1. Jamaica: Due to Melissa’s slow motion, a prolonged multi-day
period of damaging winds and heavy rainfall resulting in potentially
catastrophic flash flooding and numerous landslides is likely to
begin late Saturday or Sunday. There is an increasing risk of
life-threatening storm surge when the center of Melissa nears
Jamaica early next week. Preparations to protect life and property
should be rushed to completion.

2. Haiti: Heavy rainfall will result in catastrophic flash flooding
and landslides across southwestern Haiti into early next week.
Extensive damage to roads and buildings is expected, potentially
isolating communities for an extended period of time. Immediate
preparations to protect life and property should be taken. Strong
winds could also potentially last for a day or more over the Tiburon
peninsula of Haiti.

3. Dominican Republic: Heavy rainfall could produce potentially
catastrophic flash flooding and numerous landslides in southern
portions of the Dominican Republic.

4. Eastern Cuba and Bahamas: Interests in Cuba and the Bahamas
should monitor the progress of Melissa since there is an increasing
risk of a significant storm storm surge, damaging winds, and heavy
rainfall by the middle of next week. The risk of life-threatening
flash flooding and landslides in eastern Cuba are increasing.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 24/2100Z 16.0N 74.3W 55 KT 65 MPH
12H 25/0600Z 16.2N 74.4W 65 KT 75 MPH
24H 25/1800Z 16.4N 74.8W 85 KT 100 MPH
36H 26/0600Z 16.5N 75.5W 105 KT 120 MPH
48H 26/1800Z 16.5N 76.0W 120 KT 140 MPH
60H 27/0600Z 16.5N 76.6W 135 KT 155 MPH
72H 27/1800Z 16.8N 77.4W 135 KT 155 MPH
96H 28/1800Z 17.9N 77.4W 120 KT 140 MPH…INLAND IN JAMAICA
120H 29/1800Z 21.5N 74.8W 95 KT 110 MPH…OVER WATER

$$
Forecaster Papin

October 24, 2025

Weather

Tropical Storm Melissa Wind Speed Probabilities Number 14

Issued at 2100 UTC FRI OCT 24 2025 000
FONT13 KNHC 242044
PWSAT3

TROPICAL STORM MELISSA WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 14
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL132025
2100 UTC FRI OCT 24 2025

AT 2100Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM MELISSA WAS LOCATED NEAR
LATITUDE 16.0 NORTH…LONGITUDE 74.3 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
WINDS NEAR 55 KTS…65 MPH…100 KM/H.

Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH)
ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)…SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME
EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)…SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME
CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)…SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME

WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS

CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST
…34 KT (39 MPH… 63 KM/H)…
…50 KT (58 MPH… 93 KM/H)…
…64 KT (74 MPH…119 KM/H)…
FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS

PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE
OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING
AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY)
(CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN
18Z FRI AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY)

PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT
X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT
PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN
THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT.
PROBABILITIES FOR 34…50…64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY
64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT.

– – – – WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS – – – –

FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM
TIME 18Z FRI 06Z SAT 18Z SAT 06Z SUN 18Z SUN 18Z MON 18Z TUE
PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO
06Z SAT 18Z SAT 06Z SUN 18Z SUN 18Z MON 18Z TUE 18Z WED

FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120)
– – – – – – – – – – – – – – – – – – – – – – – – – – – – – – – – – –
LOCATION KT

W PALM BEACH 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3)

FT LAUDERDALE 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3)

MARATHON FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3)

SAN ANDRES 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) X( 4)

PT GALLINAS 34 3 3( 6) 1( 7) X( 7) 1( 8) X( 8) X( 8)

GRAND BAHAMA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4)

NEW PROVIDENCE 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 10(12)
NEW PROVIDENCE 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4)
NEW PROVIDENCE 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2)

ANDROS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 14(17)
ANDROS 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 5( 6)
ANDROS 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3)

GREAT EXUMA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 25(30)
GREAT EXUMA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 13(14)
GREAT EXUMA 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 7( 8)

SAN SALVADOR 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 26(28)
SAN SALVADOR 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 13(13)
SAN SALVADOR 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 7( 7)

MAYAGUANA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) 32(36)
MAYAGUANA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 15(16)
MAYAGUANA 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 10(10)

GRAND TURK 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 19(21)
GRAND TURK 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 7( 7)
GRAND TURK 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3)

ISLE OF PINES 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 2( 5)

CIENFUEGOS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 6( 7) 7(14)
CIENFUEGOS 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4)
CIENFUEGOS 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2)

CAMAGUEY 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 2( 4) 16(20) 14(34)
CAMAGUEY 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 9(14)
CAMAGUEY 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 4( 6)

GUANTANAMO BAY 34 1 3( 4) 4( 8) 3(11) 4(15) 17(32) 19(51)
GUANTANAMO BAY 50 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 7( 9) 13(22)
GUANTANAMO BAY 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 5( 9)

GRAND CAYMAN 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 4( 5) 16(21) 4(25)
GRAND CAYMAN 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 6( 7) 1( 8)
GRAND CAYMAN 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 1( 4)

MONTEGO BAY 34 3 5( 8) 11(19) 12(31) 28(59) 23(82) 5(87)
MONTEGO BAY 50 X X( X) 2( 2) 3( 5) 18(23) 28(51) 9(60)
MONTEGO BAY 64 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 8( 9) 22(31) 7(38)

KINGSTON 34 4 17(21) 31(52) 16(68) 14(82) 6(88) 3(91)
KINGSTON 50 X 3( 3) 10(13) 15(28) 19(47) 9(56) 4(60)
KINGSTON 64 X X( X) 3( 3) 7(10) 13(23) 9(32) 5(37)

LES CAYES 34 6 15(21) 7(28) 3(31) 3(34) 7(41) 5(46)
LES CAYES 50 X 1( 1) 2( 3) 1( 4) 1( 5) 3( 8) 6(14)
LES CAYES 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 3( 5)

PORT-AU-PRINCE 34 7 9(16) 5(21) 2(23) 3(26) 5(31) 9(40)
PORT-AU-PRINCE 50 X 1( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) 2( 3) 5( 8)
PORT-AU-PRINCE 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3)

CAPE BEATA 34 6 7(13) 3(16) 2(18) 2(20) 2(22) 5(27)

PUERTO PLATA 34 1 2( 3) X( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) 1( 5) 11(16)
PUERTO PLATA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3)

SANTO DOMINGO 34 1 1( 2) X( 2) X( 2) X( 2) 1( 3) 4( 7)

$$
FORECASTER PAPIN

October 24, 2025

Weather

Tropical Storm Melissa Public Advisory Number 14

Issued at 500 PM EDT Fri Oct 24 2025 000
WTNT33 KNHC 242044
TCPAT3

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Melissa Advisory Number 14
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL132025
500 PM EDT Fri Oct 24 2025

…MELISSA EXPECTED TO RAPIDLY INTENSIFY INTO A MAJOR HURRICANE
THIS WEEKEND…
…LIFE-THREATENING AND CATASTROPHIC FLASH FLOODING AND LANDSLIDES
EXPECTED IN PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN HISPANIOLA AND JAMAICA THROUGH THE
WEEKEND…

SUMMARY OF 500 PM EDT…2100 UTC…INFORMATION
———————————————-
LOCATION…16.0N 74.3W
ABOUT 215 MI…345 KM SE OF KINGSTON JAMAICA
ABOUT 225 MI…360 KM SW OF PORT AU PRINCE HAITI
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS…65 MPH…100 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT…N OR 360 DEGREES AT 2 MPH…4 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE…995 MB…29.39 INCHES

WATCHES AND WARNINGS
——————–
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Hurricane Watch is in effect for…
* Southwestern peninsula of Haiti from the border with the
Dominican Republic to Port-Au-Prince
* Jamaica

A Tropical Storm Warning in effect for…
* Southwestern peninsula of Haiti from the border with the
Dominican Republic to Port-Au-Prince
* Jamaica

A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible
within the watch area. A watch is typically issued 48 hours before
the anticipated first occurrence of tropical-storm-force winds,
conditions that make outside preparations difficult or dangerous.

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours.

Interests elsewhere in Haiti, the Dominican Republic, and eastern
Cuba, and the Bahamas should monitor the progress of Melissa. A
hurricane warning may be required for Jamaica later today.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.

DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
———————-
At 500 PM EDT (2100 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Melissa was
located near latitude 16.0 North, longitude 74.3 West. Melissa is
moving slowly toward the north near 2 mph (4 km/h). A turn to the
west is forecast on Saturday and this general motion is expected to
continue through Monday. A turn to the north and northeast is
forecast on Tuesday and Wednesday. On the forecast track, the center
of Melissa is expected to move near or over Jamaica early next week
and could be near or over eastern Cuba by the middle of next week.

Maximum sustained winds have increased to near 65 mph (100 km/h)
with higher gusts. Rapid intensification is now forecast over the
next several days, and Melissa is forecast to become a hurricane
tomorrow and a major hurricane by Sunday.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 140 miles (220 km)
from the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 995 mb (29.39 inches).

HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
———————-
Key messages for Melissa can be found in the Tropical
Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT3 and WMO header
WTNT43 KNHC.

WIND: Hurricane conditions are possible within the watch area in
Haiti later this weekend and Jamaica beginning late this weekend or
early next week. Tropical storm conditions are expected to begin in
Haiti tonight or Saturday and in Jamaica late Saturday into Sunday.

RAINFALL: Melissa is expected to bring total rainfall of 15 to 25
inches to portions of southern Hispaniola and Jamaica through
Tuesday, with local maxima of 35 inches possible across the Tiburon
Peninsula of Haiti. Additional heavy rainfall is likely beyond
Tuesday. The uncertainty at that time range precludes exact storm
totals. Potentially catastrophic flash flooding and landslides are
possible across portions of Jamaica and the southern Dominican
Republic, while catastrophic flash flooding is anticipated in
southern Haiti.

For southeast Cuba, total rainfall of 4 to 8 inches, with local
amounts to 12 inches, are possible into Tuesday. Additional heavy
rainfall is likely beyond Tuesday. The uncertainty at that time
range precludes exact storm totals.

For a complete depiction of forecast rainfall associated with
Melissa, please see the National Weather Service Storm Total
Rainfall Graphic, available at
hurricanes.gov/graphics_at3.shtml?rainqpf

STORM SURGE: Minor coastal flooding is likely along the coast of
Jamaica by Saturday in areas of onshore winds as tropical storm
conditions begin to reach the area.

However, there is a risk of a more life-threatening storm surge,
especially along the south coast of Jamaica, early next week. Peak
storm surge heights could reach 5 to 10 feet above ground level,
near and to the east of where the center of Melissa makes landfall.
This storm surge will be accompanied by large and destructive
waves.

SURF: Swells generated by Melissa are expected to affect portions
of Hispaniola, Jamaica, and eastern Cuba during the next several
days. Please consult products from your local weather office.

NEXT ADVISORY
————-
Next intermediate advisory at 800 PM EDT.
Next complete advisory at 1100 PM EDT.

$$
Forecaster Papin

October 24, 2025

Weather

Tropical Storm Melissa Forecast Advisory Number 14

Issued at 2100 UTC FRI OCT 24 2025 000
WTNT23 KNHC 242041
TCMAT3

TROPICAL STORM MELISSA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 14
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL132025
2100 UTC FRI OCT 24 2025

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 16.0N 74.3W AT 24/2100Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH OR 360 DEGREES AT 2 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 995 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 55 KT WITH GUSTS TO 65 KT.
50 KT……. 30NE 40SE 0SW 20NW.
34 KT…….100NE 120SE 30SW 50NW.
4 M SEAS….120NE 120SE 30SW 120NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT…CENTER LOCATED NEAR 16.0N 74.3W AT 24/2100Z
AT 24/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 15.7N 74.3W

FORECAST VALID 25/0600Z 16.2N 74.4W
MAX WIND 65 KT…GUSTS 80 KT.
64 KT… 15NE 10SE 0SW 10NW.
50 KT… 40NE 40SE 20SW 30NW.
34 KT…120NE 130SE 50SW 50NW.

FORECAST VALID 25/1800Z 16.4N 74.8W
MAX WIND 85 KT…GUSTS 105 KT.
64 KT… 20NE 15SE 15SW 20NW.
50 KT… 55NE 45SE 25SW 30NW.
34 KT…140NE 140SE 50SW 80NW.

FORECAST VALID 26/0600Z 16.5N 75.5W
MAX WIND 105 KT…GUSTS 130 KT.
64 KT… 25NE 20SE 20SW 25NW.
50 KT… 60NE 50SE 30SW 45NW.
34 KT…160NE 150SE 70SW 100NW.

FORECAST VALID 26/1800Z 16.5N 76.0W
MAX WIND 120 KT…GUSTS 145 KT.
64 KT… 30NE 25SE 25SW 30NW.
50 KT… 60NE 55SE 40SW 45NW.
34 KT…160NE 150SE 70SW 110NW.

FORECAST VALID 27/0600Z 16.5N 76.6W
MAX WIND 135 KT…GUSTS 165 KT.
64 KT… 35NE 30SE 25SW 30NW.
50 KT… 65NE 60SE 40SW 55NW.
34 KT…160NE 160SE 90SW 120NW.

FORECAST VALID 27/1800Z 16.8N 77.4W
MAX WIND 135 KT…GUSTS 165 KT.
64 KT… 45NE 35SE 35SW 40NW.
50 KT… 90NE 80SE 60SW 70NW.
34 KT…180NE 170SE 100SW 120NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE…ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 125 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5…AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 28/1800Z 17.9N 77.4W…INLAND IN JAMAICA
MAX WIND 120 KT…GUSTS 145 KT.
50 KT… 80NE 85SE 60SW 60NW.
34 KT…160NE 200SE 120SW 110NW.

OUTLOOK VALID 29/1800Z 21.5N 74.8W…OVER WATER
MAX WIND 95 KT…GUSTS 115 KT.
50 KT… 95NE 110SE 90SW 65NW.
34 KT…180NE 210SE 160SW 140NW.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 16.0N 74.3W

INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY…WTNT33 KNHC/MIATCPAT3…AT 25/0000Z

NEXT ADVISORY AT 25/0300Z

$$
FORECASTER PAPIN

October 24, 2025