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Tropical Storm Melissa Graphics

5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Fri, 24 Oct 2025 08:44:04 GMT

Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Fri, 24 Oct 2025 08:44:05 GMT

October 24, 2025

Weather

Tropical Storm Melissa Forecast Discussion Number 12

Issued at 500 AM EDT Fri Oct 24 2025 000
WTNT43 KNHC 240842
TCDAT3

Tropical Storm Melissa Discussion Number 12
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL132025
500 AM EDT Fri Oct 24 2025

For all intents and purposes, Melissa is nearly stationary over the
north-central Caribbean Sea. The estimated center has been
adjusted a bit based on scatterometer data from last evening, but
wind direction data from buoy 42058 also suggest that the
circulation could still be a bit elongated. There are several deep
convective bursts embedded within the overall cloud canopy,
although banding features are not particularly well defined at the
moment. An Air Force Reserve mission should provide a more accurate
estimate of Melissa’s center location and intensity in a couple of
hours, and for now the estimated intensity is maintained at 40 kt.

With Melissa located within a break in the mid-level ridge, the
steering currents remain weak. Track models suggest that some
meandering or a slow northeast to north drift is likely to occur
over the next 24 hours. By Saturday, there will likely be just
enough mid-level ridging building north of the storm to cause
Melissa to begin moving very slowly westward, with that motion
continuing through Tuesday. What’s most noteworthy is that several
reliable models, including the ECMWF, HCCA, and Google DeepMind
ensemble mean have shifted southward during this period. The new
NHC forecast reflects this slight shift, but it’s important to note
that several other models continue to show Melissa’s center getting
perilously close to or over Jamaica in 2-3 days. A slow
recurvature is forecast on days 4 and 5, with Melissa potentially
moving near western Jamaica and approaching southeastern Cuba by
early Wednesday. Interestingly, the 00z ECMWF keeps Melissa south
or southwest of Jamaica through day 5, but it appears to be an
outlier compared to the other guidance.

Strong westerly shear continues to affect Melissa, but there are
some indications that the shear could gradually decrease over the
next 24-36 hours. At the same time, high ocean heat content values
and stronger upper-level divergence should help to induce
strengthening. There is fairly strong agreement among the
intensity models that a period of rapid intensification could begin
in about 24 hours, and the NHC forecast shows Melissa becoming a
hurricane in 36 hours. Although this is an aggressive forecast
given Melissa’s current structure, several models are even stronger
than the NHC forecast at that forecast time. There is less model
agreement on Melissa’s intensity after 48 hours. In order to
maintain continuity with previous forecasts, the NHC prediction is
near the top end of the guidance envelope and close to the Google
DeepMind ensemble mean. Other models show flatlining or decreasing
intensity after 48 hours, but that is likely due to scenarios that
account for more land interaction.

Key Messages:

1. Jamaica: Due to Melissa’s slow motion, the risk of a prolonged
multi-day period of potentially damaging winds, heavy rainfall
resulting in life-threatening flash flooding and numerous
landslides, and storm surge continues to increase for Jamaica.
Preparations to protect life and property should be rushed to
completion, since strong winds and flooding rains could begin in
Jamaica later today or on Saturday.

2. Haiti: Heavy rainfall will result in catastrophic flash
flooding and landslides across southwestern Haiti by this weekend
into early next week. Extensive damage to roads and buildings is
expected, potentially isolating communities for an extended period
of time. This is a life-threatening situation and immediate
preparations to protect life and property should be taken. Strong
winds could also potentially last for a day or more over the Tiburon
peninsula of Haiti.

3. Remainder of Hispaniola and Eastern Cuba: Heavy rainfall could
also produce significant, life-threatening flash flooding and
numerous landslides in southern Dominican Republic. Interests in
Cuba should monitor the progress of Melissa since the risk of heavy
rainfall, damaging winds, and storm surge appears to be increasing.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 24/0900Z 16.0N 75.5W 40 KT 45 MPH
12H 24/1800Z 16.1N 75.3W 45 KT 50 MPH
24H 25/0600Z 16.6N 75.4W 55 KT 65 MPH
36H 25/1800Z 16.9N 75.9W 65 KT 75 MPH
48H 26/0600Z 16.9N 76.5W 85 KT 100 MPH
60H 26/1800Z 16.9N 77.2W 100 KT 115 MPH
72H 27/0600Z 16.9N 78.0W 115 KT 130 MPH
96H 28/0600Z 17.6N 78.8W 125 KT 145 MPH
120H 29/0600Z 19.8N 77.9W 120 KT 140 MPH

$$
Forecaster Berg

October 24, 2025

Weather

Tropical Storm Melissa Wind Speed Probabilities Number 12

Issued at 0900 UTC FRI OCT 24 2025 000
FONT13 KNHC 240841
PWSAT3

TROPICAL STORM MELISSA WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 12
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL132025
0900 UTC FRI OCT 24 2025

AT 0900Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM MELISSA WAS LOCATED NEAR
LATITUDE 16.0 NORTH…LONGITUDE 75.5 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
WINDS NEAR 40 KTS…45 MPH…75 KM/H.

Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH)
ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)…SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME
EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)…SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME
CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)…SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME

WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS

CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST
…34 KT (39 MPH… 63 KM/H)…
…50 KT (58 MPH… 93 KM/H)…
…64 KT (74 MPH…119 KM/H)…
FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS

PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE
OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING
AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY)
(CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN
06Z FRI AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY)

PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT
X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT
PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN
THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT.
PROBABILITIES FOR 34…50…64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY
64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT.

– – – – WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS – – – –

FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM
TIME 06Z FRI 18Z FRI 06Z SAT 18Z SAT 06Z SUN 06Z MON 06Z TUE
PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO
18Z FRI 06Z SAT 18Z SAT 06Z SUN 06Z MON 06Z TUE 06Z WED

FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120)
– – – – – – – – – – – – – – – – – – – – – – – – – – – – – – – – – –
LOCATION KT

FT PIERCE FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3)

W PALM BEACH 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4)

FT LAUDERDALE 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5)
FT LAUDERDALE 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2)
FT LAUDERDALE 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1)

MIAMI FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4)
MIAMI FL 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2)
MIAMI FL 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1)

HOMESTEAD ARB 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4)
HOMESTEAD ARB 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2)
HOMESTEAD ARB 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1)

MARATHON FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 8( 9)
MARATHON FL 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3)
MARATHON FL 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2)

KEY WEST FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 7( 8)
KEY WEST FL 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3)
KEY WEST FL 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1)

NAPLES FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3)

PUERTO CABEZAS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) 3( 6)

SAN ANDRES 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 4( 6) 3( 9)

GRAND BAHAMA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5)

NEW PROVIDENCE 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 13(14)
NEW PROVIDENCE 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5)
NEW PROVIDENCE 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3)

ANDROS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 19(22)
ANDROS 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 9( 9)
ANDROS 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5)

GREAT EXUMA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 22(24)
GREAT EXUMA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 11(11)
GREAT EXUMA 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6)

SAN SALVADOR 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 15(16)
SAN SALVADOR 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 7( 7)
SAN SALVADOR 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4)

MAYAGUANA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 10(11)
MAYAGUANA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3)
MAYAGUANA 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2)

GRAND TURK 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4)

CP SAN ANTONIO 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3)

HAVANA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 5( 7)
HAVANA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2)
HAVANA 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1)

ISLE OF PINES 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 5( 6) 10(16)
ISLE OF PINES 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 4( 6)
ISLE OF PINES 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3)

CIENFUEGOS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 11(13) 17(30)
CIENFUEGOS 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 9(12)
CIENFUEGOS 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 6( 7)

CAMAGUEY 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) 3( 6) 10(16) 23(39)
CAMAGUEY 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 14(17)
CAMAGUEY 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 5( 6)

GUANTANAMO BAY 34 X 1( 1) 3( 4) 4( 8) 5(13) 5(18) 9(27)
GUANTANAMO BAY 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 4( 6)
GUANTANAMO BAY 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2)

GRAND CAYMAN 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) 10(13) 24(37) 13(50)
GRAND CAYMAN 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 15(16) 10(26)
GRAND CAYMAN 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 7( 7) 7(14)

MONTEGO BAY 34 X 3( 3) 15(18) 24(42) 25(67) 9(76) 5(81)
MONTEGO BAY 50 X X( X) 1( 1) 6( 7) 19(26) 11(37) 8(45)
MONTEGO BAY 64 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 10(11) 7(18) 6(24)

KINGSTON 34 1 14(15) 34(49) 26(75) 13(88) 1(89) 2(91)
KINGSTON 50 X X( X) 10(10) 25(35) 17(52) 2(54) 2(56)
KINGSTON 64 X X( X) 1( 1) 11(12) 12(24) 2(26) 1(27)

LES CAYES 34 1 6( 7) 7(14) 5(19) 4(23) 2(25) 3(28)

PORT-AU-PRINCE 34 1 6( 7) 6(13) 3(16) 3(19) X(19) 4(23)

CAPE BEATA 34 1 4( 5) 3( 8) 2(10) 1(11) 1(12) 2(14)

PUERTO PLATA 34 X X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) 2( 3)

$$
FORECASTER BERG

October 24, 2025

Weather

Tropical Storm Melissa Public Advisory Number 12

Issued at 500 AM EDT Fri Oct 24 2025 000
WTNT33 KNHC 240841
TCPAT3

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Melissa Advisory Number 12
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL132025
500 AM EDT Fri Oct 24 2025

…MELISSA NEARLY STATIONARY…
…LIFE-THREATENING AND CATASTROPHIC FLASH FLOODING AND LANDSLIDES
EXPECTED IN PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN HISPANIOLA AND JAMAICA THROUGH THE
WEEKEND…

SUMMARY OF 500 AM EDT…0900 UTC…INFORMATION
———————————————-
LOCATION…16.0N 75.5W
ABOUT 165 MI…260 KM SSE OF KINGSTON JAMAICA
ABOUT 275 MI…445 KM SW OF PORT AU PRINCE HAITI
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS…45 MPH…75 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT…STATIONARY
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE…1001 MB…29.56 INCHES

WATCHES AND WARNINGS
——————–
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Hurricane Watch is in effect for…
* Southwestern peninsula of Haiti from the border with the
Dominican Republic to Port-Au-Prince
* Jamaica

A Tropical Storm Warning in effect for…
* Southwestern peninsula of Haiti from the border with the
Dominican Republic to Port-Au-Prince
* Jamaica

A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible
within the watch area. A watch is typically issued 48 hours before
the anticipated first occurrence of tropical-storm-force winds,
conditions that make outside preparations difficult or dangerous.

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours.

Interests elsewhere in Haiti, the Dominican Republic, and eastern
Cuba should monitor the progress of Melissa. A hurricane warning
may be required for Jamaica later today.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.

DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
———————-
At 500 AM EDT (0900 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Melissa was
located near latitude 16.0 North, longitude 75.5 West. Melissa is
nearly stationary, but a slow drift toward the northeast and
north is expected later today and tonight. A westward drift is
then forecast to begin on Saturday and continue through Monday. On
the forecast track, the center of Melissa is expected to move near
or just south of Jamaica early next week.

Maximum sustained winds are near 45 mph (75 km/h) with higher gusts.
Gradual strengthening is forecast over the next day or so, followed
by rapid intensification this weekend. Melissa is forecast to
become a hurricane by Saturday and a major hurricane by Sunday.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 140 miles (220 km)
to the east of the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1001 mb (29.56 inches).

HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
———————-
Key messages for Melissa can be found in the Tropical Cyclone
Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT3 and WMO header WTNT43 KNHC.

WIND: Hurricane conditions are possible within the watch area in
Haiti on Saturday and Jamaica beginning late Saturday or Sunday.
Tropical storm conditions are expected to begin in Haiti later today
and in Jamaica on Saturday.

RAINFALL: Melissa is expected to bring 8 to 14 inches of rain to
southern Dominican Republic, southern Haiti, and eastern Jamaica
through Sunday night, with locally higher amounts possible.
Additional heavy rainfall is likely beyond Sunday night; however,
uncertainty in Melissa’s track and forward speed reduces confidence
in exact totals. Significant, life-threatening flash flooding and
numerous landslides are expected in the southern Dominican Republic
and eastern Jamaica, with catastrophic flash flooding and landslides
anticipated in southern Haiti.

Across northern Dominican Republic, northern Haiti, and western
Jamaica, 3 to 5 inches of rain are expected through Sunday night.
Flash and urban flooding will be possible through Sunday night.
Flooding impacts may increase across western Jamaica next week.

For a complete depiction of forecast rainfall associated with
Melissa, please see the National Weather Service Storm Total
Rainfall Graphic, available at
hurricanes.gov/graphics_at3.shtml?rainqpf

STORM SURGE: Minor coastal flooding is likely along the coast of
Jamaica by Saturday in areas of onshore winds as tropical storm
conditions begin to reach the area. However, there is a potential
risk of a more significant storm surge, especially along the south
coast of Jamaica, early next week. Due to Melissa’s slow motion and
large forecast uncertainty, it is still too soon to know exactly how
high the storm surge could reach.

SURF: Swells generated by Melissa are expected to affect portions
of Hispaniola, Jamaica, and eastern Cuba during the next several
days. Please consult products from your local weather office.

NEXT ADVISORY
————-
Next intermediate advisory at 800 AM EDT.
Next complete advisory at 1100 AM EDT.

$$
Forecaster Berg

October 24, 2025

Weather

Tropical Storm Melissa Forecast Advisory Number 12

Issued at 0900 UTC FRI OCT 24 2025 000
WTNT23 KNHC 240841
TCMAT3

TROPICAL STORM MELISSA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 12
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL132025
0900 UTC FRI OCT 24 2025

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 16.0N 75.5W AT 24/0900Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH OR 360 DEGREES AT 0 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1001 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 40 KT WITH GUSTS TO 50 KT.
34 KT…….100NE 120SE 0SW 0NW.
4 M SEAS….150NE 90SE 15SW 105NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT…CENTER LOCATED NEAR 16.0N 75.5W AT 24/0900Z
AT 24/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 16.0N 75.6W

FORECAST VALID 24/1800Z 16.1N 75.3W
MAX WIND 45 KT…GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT…100NE 120SE 30SW 30NW.

FORECAST VALID 25/0600Z 16.6N 75.4W
MAX WIND 55 KT…GUSTS 65 KT.
50 KT… 20NE 15SE 0SW 15NW.
34 KT…120NE 120SE 30SW 50NW.

FORECAST VALID 25/1800Z 16.9N 75.9W
MAX WIND 65 KT…GUSTS 80 KT.
64 KT… 20NE 15SE 0SW 15NW.
50 KT… 40NE 30SE 20SW 30NW.
34 KT…130NE 130SE 40SW 70NW.

FORECAST VALID 26/0600Z 16.9N 76.5W
MAX WIND 85 KT…GUSTS 105 KT.
64 KT… 20NE 10SE 10SW 20NW.
50 KT… 50NE 30SE 30SW 40NW.
34 KT…150NE 140SE 50SW 80NW.

FORECAST VALID 26/1800Z 16.9N 77.2W
MAX WIND 100 KT…GUSTS 120 KT.
64 KT… 25NE 20SE 15SW 20NW.
50 KT… 50NE 40SE 30SW 40NW.
34 KT…150NE 150SE 60SW 100NW.

FORECAST VALID 27/0600Z 16.9N 78.0W
MAX WIND 115 KT…GUSTS 140 KT.
64 KT… 25NE 20SE 15SW 25NW.
50 KT… 50NE 40SE 30SW 50NW.
34 KT…160NE 150SE 60SW 100NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE…ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 125 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5…AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 28/0600Z 17.6N 78.8W
MAX WIND 125 KT…GUSTS 150 KT.
50 KT… 70NE 70SE 40SW 50NW.
34 KT…170NE 180SE 80SW 110NW.

OUTLOOK VALID 29/0600Z 19.8N 77.9W
MAX WIND 120 KT…GUSTS 145 KT.
50 KT… 80NE 90SE 60SW 60NW.
34 KT…180NE 200SE 120SW 120NW.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 16.0N 75.5W

INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY…WTNT33 KNHC/MIATCPAT3…AT 24/1200Z

NEXT ADVISORY AT 24/1500Z

$$
FORECASTER BERG

October 24, 2025

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