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Weather

Tropical Storm Melissa Graphics

5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Tue, 21 Oct 2025 20:37:24 GMT

Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Tue, 21 Oct 2025 20:37:24 GMT

October 21, 2025

Weather

Tropical Storm Melissa Forecast Discussion Number 2

Issued at 500 PM EDT Tue Oct 21 2025 000
WTNT43 KNHC 212035
TCDAT3

Tropical Storm Melissa Discussion Number 2
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL132025
500 PM EDT Tue Oct 21 2025

Satellite data indicate that Melissa is struggling in strong shear,
which has been the theme for many systems over the deep tropics this
year. The low-level center of the storm is exposed to the west of
the main area of thunderstorms. Air Force Hurricane Hunters have
been investigating the system this afternoon and found that the
minimum pressure is around 1003 mb. Based on their observations,
ASCAT passes, and Dvorak estimates, the initial intensity is held at
45 kt. Melissa’s wind field is also quite asymmetric, with most of
the tropical-storm-force winds occurring on the system’s east side.
Some of the outermost northern bands are approaching Hispaniola, and
these heavy rains are expected to spread across that island during
the next couple of days.

Melissa is a little south of the previous track and it continues to
move westward at about 13 kt. There has been no change to the track
forecast scenario, which remains complicated. Over the next couple
of days, there is fair confidence that Melissa should slow down and
gradually turn to the northwest or north and approach Haiti and
Jamaica late this week. The motion after that appears to be linked
to how strong and vertically aligned the system gets, and
that is when the models diverge. If Melissa organizes like the GFS
predicts, it could turn northeastward into the weakness in the
ridge and move over Hispaniola. Conversely, if Melissa remains
sheared and lopsided, it will likely stall and eventually drift
westward as a ridge builds north of it. Given the expected
continued shear, the NHC track forecast leans toward the latter
scenario. This prediction is a little left of the previous forecast
and remains a blend of the latest Google DeepMind ensemble mean,
the corrected consensus aid HCCA, and simple consensus TVCA.

Although the ocean is very warm, the models suggest that the
vertical wind shear could persist over Melissa during the next few
days. In addition, there is also some dry air in the storm’s
vicinity. Based on these mixed signals, the strengthening trend is
expected to be slow. In fact, the new guidance supports nudging the
short term intensity down a bit. If Melissa remains over the
Caribbean late this week and over the weekend, the upper-level winds
could become more conducive for more significant strengthening.
The NHC intensity forecast is in best agreement with the HCCA model.

Key Messages:

1. Melissa is expected to bring heavy rainfall and the risk of
significant flash flooding and the danger of landslides to portions
of Haiti and the Dominican Republic through the weekend.

2. Hurricane conditions are possible in the southwestern peninsula
of Haiti where a Hurricane Watch is in effect. A Tropical Storm
Watch is in effect for Jamaica. Preparations to protect life and
property should be completed by Thursday.

3. There is significant uncertainty in the track and intensity
forecast of Melissa. Interests elsewhere in Hispaniola and Cuba
should continue to monitor the latest forecasts.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 21/2100Z 14.2N 73.0W 45 KT 50 MPH
12H 22/0600Z 14.5N 73.7W 45 KT 50 MPH
24H 22/1800Z 15.0N 74.4W 50 KT 60 MPH
36H 23/0600Z 15.5N 75.0W 55 KT 65 MPH
48H 23/1800Z 16.1N 75.1W 60 KT 70 MPH
60H 24/0600Z 16.5N 75.0W 60 KT 70 MPH
72H 24/1800Z 16.9N 75.0W 60 KT 70 MPH
96H 25/1800Z 17.3N 75.0W 65 KT 75 MPH
120H 26/1800Z 17.5N 75.2W 75 KT 85 MPH

$$
Forecaster Cangialosi

October 21, 2025

Weather

Tropical Storm Melissa Wind Speed Probabilities Number 2

Issued at 2100 UTC TUE OCT 21 2025 000
FONT13 KNHC 212035
PWSAT3

TROPICAL STORM MELISSA WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 2
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL132025
2100 UTC TUE OCT 21 2025

AT 2100Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM MELISSA WAS LOCATED NEAR
LATITUDE 14.2 NORTH…LONGITUDE 73.0 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
WINDS NEAR 45 KTS…50 MPH…85 KM/H.

Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH)
ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)…SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME
EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)…SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME
CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)…SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME

WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS

CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST
…34 KT (39 MPH… 63 KM/H)…
…50 KT (58 MPH… 93 KM/H)…
…64 KT (74 MPH…119 KM/H)…
FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS

PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE
OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING
AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY)
(CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN
18Z TUE AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY)

PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT
X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT
PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN
THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT.
PROBABILITIES FOR 34…50…64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY
64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT.

– – – – WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS – – – –

FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM
TIME 18Z TUE 06Z WED 18Z WED 06Z THU 18Z THU 18Z FRI 18Z SAT
PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO
06Z WED 18Z WED 06Z THU 18Z THU 18Z FRI 18Z SAT 18Z SUN

FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120)
– – – – – – – – – – – – – – – – – – – – – – – – – – – – – – – – – –
LOCATION KT

MARATHON FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3)

PT GALLINAS 34 1 2( 3) 1( 4) 2( 6) 2( 8) 1( 9) 4(13)

NEW PROVIDENCE 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3)

ANDROS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 4( 5)

GREAT EXUMA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 5( 7)

SAN SALVADOR 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4)

MAYAGUANA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) 3( 7)

GRAND TURK 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) 2( 6)

ISLE OF PINES 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3)

CIENFUEGOS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 4( 5)

CAMAGUEY 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 4( 6)

GUANTANAMO BAY 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 4( 5) 5(10) 5(15)

GRAND CAYMAN 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 4( 6)

MONTEGO BAY 34 X 1( 1) 1( 2) 3( 5) 7(12) 8(20) 10(30)
MONTEGO BAY 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 5( 7)
MONTEGO BAY 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2)

KINGSTON 34 X 1( 1) 5( 6) 7(13) 13(26) 11(37) 6(43)
KINGSTON 50 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) 3( 7) 5(12)
KINGSTON 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) 2( 3)

LES CAYES 34 X 1( 1) 1( 2) 3( 5) 12(17) 6(23) 4(27)
LES CAYES 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) 1( 4)

PORT-AU-PRINCE 34 1 1( 2) 4( 6) 3( 9) 10(19) 7(26) 4(30)
PORT-AU-PRINCE 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) 2( 5)

CAPE BEATA 34 1 2( 3) 3( 6) 3( 9) 6(15) 4(19) 5(24)
CAPE BEATA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) 2( 3)

PUERTO PLATA 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) 3( 6) 3( 9)

SANTO DOMINGO 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 2( 4) 3( 7)

$$
FORECASTER CANGIALOSI

October 21, 2025

Weather

Tropical Storm Melissa Public Advisory Number 2

Issued at 500 PM EDT Tue Oct 21 2025 000
WTNT33 KNHC 212034
TCPAT3

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Melissa Advisory Number 2
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL132025
500 PM EDT Tue Oct 21 2025

…HEAVY RAINS EXPECTED TO SPREAD OVER HISPANIOLA DURING THE
NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS…

SUMMARY OF 500 PM EDT…2100 UTC…INFORMATION
———————————————-
LOCATION…14.2N 73.0W
ABOUT 305 MI…495 KM S OF PORT AU PRINCE HAITI
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS…50 MPH…85 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT…W OR 275 DEGREES AT 15 MPH…24 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE…1003 MB…29.62 INCHES

WATCHES AND WARNINGS
——————–
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Hurricane Watch is in effect for…
* Southwestern peninsula of Haiti from the border with the
Dominican Republic to Port-Au-Prince

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for…
* Jamaica

A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible
within the watch area. A watch is typically issued 48 hours
before the anticipated first occurrence of tropical-storm-force
winds, conditions that make outside preparations difficult or
dangerous.

A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours.

Interests elsewhere in Haiti, the Dominican Republic, and Cuba
should monitor the progress of Melissa.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.

DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
———————-
At 500 PM EDT (2100 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Melissa was
located near latitude 14.2 North, longitude 73.0 West. Melissa is
moving toward the west near 15 mph (24 km/h). A decrease in
forward speed and a gradual turn to the northwest and north is
expected during the next few days. On the forecast track, Melissa
is expected to approach Jamaica and the southwestern portion of
Haiti later this week.

Maximum sustained winds remain near 50 mph (85 km/h) with higher
gusts. Gradual strengthening is expected during the next few days.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 140 miles (220 km)
from the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1003 mb (29.62 inches).

HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
———————-
Key messages for Tropical Storm Melissa can be found in the Tropical
Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT3 and WMO header
WTNT43 KNHC.

WIND: Hurricane conditions are possible within the watch area in
Haiti beginning on Thursday. Tropical storm conditions could begin
in Jamaica on Thursday or Friday.

RAINFALL: Melissa will bring heavy rainfall to Haiti and the
Dominican Republic, with totals of 5 to 10 inches expected through
Friday. Additional heavy rainfall is possible beyond Friday, but
uncertainty regarding the track and forward speed of Melissa
reduces confidence in exact amounts. Areas of significant flash
flooding and mudslides are possible.

Over Aruba, Puerto Rico and Jamaica rainfall of 1 to 3 inches is
expected through Friday. Flash and urban flooding will be possible
across Puerto Rico through at least Friday.

For a complete depiction of forecast rainfall associated with
Melissa, please see the National Weather Service Storm Total
Rainfall Graphic, available at
hurricanes.gov/graphics_at3.shtml?rainqpf

SURF: Swells generated by Melissa are expected to spread to
Hispaniola, Jamaica, and eastern Cuba during the next couple of
days. Please consult products from your local weather office.

A depiction of rip current risk for the United States can be found
at: hurricanes.gov/graphics_at3.shtml?ripCurrents

NEXT ADVISORY
————-
Next intermediate advisory at 800 PM EDT.
Next complete advisory at 1100 PM EDT.

$$
Forecaster Cangialosi

October 21, 2025

Weather

Tropical Storm Melissa Forecast Advisory Number 2

Issued at 2100 UTC TUE OCT 21 2025 000
WTNT23 KNHC 212034
TCMAT3

TROPICAL STORM MELISSA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 2
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL132025
2100 UTC TUE OCT 21 2025

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 14.2N 73.0W AT 21/2100Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 275 DEGREES AT 13 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1003 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 45 KT WITH GUSTS TO 55 KT.
34 KT…….120NE 90SE 0SW 40NW.
4 M SEAS….120NE 0SE 0SW 45NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT…CENTER LOCATED NEAR 14.2N 73.0W AT 21/2100Z
AT 21/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 14.2N 72.7W

FORECAST VALID 22/0600Z 14.5N 73.7W
MAX WIND 45 KT…GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT…120NE 90SE 0SW 40NW.

FORECAST VALID 22/1800Z 15.0N 74.4W
MAX WIND 50 KT…GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT… 30NE 0SE 0SW 0NW.
34 KT…120NE 90SE 30SW 60NW.

FORECAST VALID 23/0600Z 15.5N 75.0W
MAX WIND 55 KT…GUSTS 65 KT.
50 KT… 30NE 0SE 0SW 0NW.
34 KT…120NE 90SE 30SW 60NW.

FORECAST VALID 23/1800Z 16.1N 75.1W
MAX WIND 60 KT…GUSTS 75 KT.
50 KT… 30NE 0SE 0SW 0NW.
34 KT…120NE 90SE 30SW 60NW.

FORECAST VALID 24/0600Z 16.5N 75.0W
MAX WIND 60 KT…GUSTS 75 KT.
50 KT… 30NE 20SE 0SW 30NW.
34 KT…120NE 100SE 30SW 60NW.

FORECAST VALID 24/1800Z 16.9N 75.0W
MAX WIND 60 KT…GUSTS 75 KT.
50 KT… 30NE 20SE 0SW 30NW.
34 KT…120NE 110SE 30SW 60NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE…ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 125 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5…AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 25/1800Z 17.3N 75.0W
MAX WIND 65 KT…GUSTS 80 KT.
50 KT… 40NE 30SE 0SW 20NW.
34 KT…130NE 110SE 30SW 70NW.

OUTLOOK VALID 26/1800Z 17.5N 75.2W
MAX WIND 75 KT…GUSTS 90 KT.
50 KT… 60NE 30SE 30SW 40NW.
34 KT…150NE 130SE 60SW 100NW.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 14.2N 73.0W

INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY…WTNT33 KNHC/MIATCPAT3…AT 22/0000Z

NEXT ADVISORY AT 22/0300Z

$$
FORECASTER CANGIALOSI

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