Issued at 0300 UTC THU OCT 09 2025 000
FONT15 KNHC 090248
PWSAT5
TROPICAL STORM JERRY WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 7
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL102025
0300 UTC THU OCT 09 2025
AT 0300Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM JERRY WAS LOCATED NEAR
LATITUDE 15.2 NORTH…LONGITUDE 56.1 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
WINDS NEAR 55 KTS…65 MPH…100 KM/H.
Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH)
ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)…SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME
EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)…SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME
CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)…SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME
WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS
CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST
…34 KT (39 MPH… 63 KM/H)…
…50 KT (58 MPH… 93 KM/H)…
…64 KT (74 MPH…119 KM/H)…
FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS
PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE
OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING
AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY)
(CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN
00Z THU AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY)
PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT
X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT
PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN
THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT.
PROBABILITIES FOR 34…50…64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY
64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT.
– – – – WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS – – – –
FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM
TIME 00Z THU 12Z THU 00Z FRI 12Z FRI 00Z SAT 00Z SUN 00Z MON
PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO
12Z THU 00Z FRI 12Z FRI 00Z SAT 00Z SUN 00Z MON 00Z TUE
FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120)
– – – – – – – – – – – – – – – – – – – – – – – – – – – – – – – – – –
LOCATION KT
BERMUDA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 14(15) 5(20)
BERMUDA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 1( 5)
BERMUDA 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2)
VIEQUES PR 34 X 1( 1) 3( 4) 1( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5)
SAINT THOMAS 34 X 1( 1) 4( 5) 1( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6)
SAINT JOHN 34 X 2( 2) 3( 5) 1( 6) 1( 7) X( 7) X( 7)
SAINT CROIX 34 X 1( 1) 3( 4) 1( 5) 1( 6) X( 6) X( 6)
SAINT MAARTEN 34 1 3( 4) 8(12) 2(14) 1(15) X(15) X(15)
SABA 34 X 4( 4) 5( 9) 1(10) X(10) X(10) X(10)
ST EUSTATIUS 34 1 3( 4) 5( 9) 1(10) X(10) X(10) X(10)
ST KITTS-NEVIS 34 1 3( 4) 5( 9) 1(10) X(10) X(10) X(10)
BARBUDA 34 1 21(22) 12(34) 1(35) X(35) X(35) X(35)
BARBUDA 50 X 3( 3) 4( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7)
ANTIGUA 34 X 4( 4) 4( 8) X( 8) X( 8) X( 8) X( 8)
GUADELOUPE 34 1 5( 6) 4(10) X(10) X(10) X(10) X(10)
AVES 34 X 1( 1) 2( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3)
DOMINICA 34 1 1( 2) 3( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5)
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FORECASTER PAPIN
