October 7, 2025 - Page 5 of 12 - Virgin Islands News

Weather

Tropical Storm Jerry Graphics

5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Tue, 07 Oct 2025 14:40:59 GMT

Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Tue, 07 Oct 2025 14:40:59 GMT

October 7, 2025

Weather

Tropical Storm Jerry Forecast Discussion Number 1

Issued at 1100 AM AST Tue Oct 07 2025 981
WTNT45 KNHC 071437
TCDAT5

Tropical Storm Jerry Discussion Number 1
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL102025
1100 AM AST Tue Oct 07 2025

The system we have been monitoring (Invest 95L) over the tropical
central Atlantic has developed sufficiently organized thunderstorm
activity and a low-level center to be considered a tropical cyclone.
This system is far from land, roughly 1000 miles east of the
Windward Islands. An ASCAT pass from around 12Z showed peak winds
between 35 and 40 kt, and based on that data, the initial intensity
is set at 40 kt, making the system Tropical Storm Jerry. Convective
bands are increasing around the center, and the strongest winds are
on the storm’s east side.

Jerry is moving quickly westward at about 21 kt on the
south-southwest side of a strong subtropical ridge. A turn to the
west-northwest with a gradual reduction in forward speed is expected
during the next couple of days as Jerry nears the southwestern edge
of the ridge. This should bring the core near or to the north of
the northern Leeward Islands late Thursday and Friday. Around that
time, the models show a deep-layer trough amplifying over the
western Atlantic, which should erode the ridge. In response to the
pattern change, Jerry is forecast to turn northward over the
west-central Atlantic this weekend. The NHC track forecast is a
little faster than the model consensus through 72 hours and in best
agreement with HCCA and the Google Deep Mind ensemble mean, which
have been performing quite well so far this year. Interests in the
northern Leeward Islands should monitor Jerry as there is
uncertainty on how close the core of the system will get to the
islands later this week.

The environmental conditions appear favorable for the system to
strengthen during the next couple of days with the upper-level winds
appearing light, waters quite warm, and abundant surrounding
moisture. The NHC intensity forecast shows the system becoming a
hurricane in a day or two before its closest approach to the
northern Leeward Islands. After the system passes by the islands,
the models diverge significantly with some solutions showing Jerry
moving into stronger shear while others keep it in a favorable
upper-level wind pattern. For now, the official forecast shows no
change in strength from days 3 to 5, but confidence is low for that
portion of the intensity forecast.

Key Messages:

1. Jerry is forecast to pass near or just north of the northern
Leeward Islands Thursday night and Friday. Interests there should
monitor the progress of the storm as there is a risk of wind, surf,
and rainfall impacts. Watches may be required for a portion of that
area later today or tonight.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 07/1500Z 11.5N 44.6W 40 KT 45 MPH
12H 08/0000Z 12.3N 47.2W 45 KT 50 MPH
24H 08/1200Z 13.5N 51.1W 55 KT 65 MPH
36H 09/0000Z 14.9N 54.6W 65 KT 75 MPH
48H 09/1200Z 16.5N 57.6W 75 KT 85 MPH
60H 10/0000Z 18.1N 60.0W 80 KT 90 MPH
72H 10/1200Z 19.8N 61.9W 80 KT 90 MPH
96H 11/1200Z 24.4N 63.4W 80 KT 90 MPH
120H 12/1200Z 29.4N 62.9W 80 KT 90 MPH

$$
Forecaster Cangialosi

October 7, 2025

Weather

Tropical Storm Jerry Wind Speed Probabilities Number 1

Issued at 1500 UTC TUE OCT 07 2025 000
FONT15 KNHC 071435
PWSAT5

TROPICAL STORM JERRY WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 1
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL102025
1500 UTC TUE OCT 07 2025

AT 1500Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM JERRY WAS LOCATED NEAR
LATITUDE 11.5 NORTH…LONGITUDE 44.6 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
WINDS NEAR 40 KTS…45 MPH…75 KM/H.

Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH)
ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)…SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME
EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)…SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME
CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)…SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME

WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS

CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST
…34 KT (39 MPH… 63 KM/H)…
…50 KT (58 MPH… 93 KM/H)…
…64 KT (74 MPH…119 KM/H)…
FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS

PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE
OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING
AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY)
(CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN
12Z TUE AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY)

PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT
X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT
PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN
THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT.
PROBABILITIES FOR 34…50…64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY
64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT.

– – – – WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS – – – –

FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM
TIME 12Z TUE 00Z WED 12Z WED 00Z THU 12Z THU 12Z FRI 12Z SAT
PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO
00Z WED 12Z WED 00Z THU 12Z THU 12Z FRI 12Z SAT 12Z SUN

FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120)
– – – – – – – – – – – – – – – – – – – – – – – – – – – – – – – – – –
LOCATION KT

BERMUDA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 19(20)
BERMUDA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 7( 7)
BERMUDA 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3)

PONCE PR 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 3( 5) X( 5)

AGUADILLA PR 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 2( 4) X( 4)

SAN JUAN PR 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 2( 4) X( 4)

VIEQUES PR 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 7( 7) 3(10) 1(11)

SAINT THOMAS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 11(11) 5(16) X(16)
SAINT THOMAS 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) 1( 4)
SAINT THOMAS 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1)

SAINT JOHN 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 13(13) 5(18) X(18)
SAINT JOHN 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 2( 4) X( 4)
SAINT JOHN 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1)

SAINT CROIX 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 9( 9) 3(12) 1(13)

SAINT MAARTEN 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 29(30) 4(34) X(34)
SAINT MAARTEN 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 11(11) 2(13) X(13)
SAINT MAARTEN 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 1( 6) X( 6)

SABA 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 21(22) 3(25) 1(26)
SABA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 7( 7) 1( 8) X( 8)
SABA 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) X( 3) X( 3)

ST EUSTATIUS 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 22(23) 3(26) 1(27)
ST EUSTATIUS 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 7( 7) 2( 9) X( 9)
ST EUSTATIUS 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) X( 3) X( 3)

ST KITTS-NEVIS 34 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 22(24) 2(26) X(26)
ST KITTS-NEVIS 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 8( 8) 1( 9) X( 9)
ST KITTS-NEVIS 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) X( 3) X( 3)

BARBUDA 34 X X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 42(45) 2(47) X(47)
BARBUDA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 19(19) 1(20) X(20)
BARBUDA 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 9( 9) 1(10) X(10)

ANTIGUA 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 19(20) 2(22) X(22)
ANTIGUA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 7( 7) 1( 8) X( 8)
ANTIGUA 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) X( 1)

GUADELOUPE 34 X X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 20(23) 1(24) X(24)
GUADELOUPE 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 7( 7) X( 7) X( 7)
GUADELOUPE 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) X( 2) X( 2)

AVES 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) X( 6) X( 6)

DOMINICA 34 X X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 9(12) 1(13) X(13)

MARTINIQUE 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) 1( 5) X( 5)

SAINT LUCIA 34 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 4( 6) X( 6) X( 6)

SAINT VINCENT 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) X( 3) X( 3)

BARBADOS 34 X X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 2( 5) X( 5) X( 5)

$$
FORECASTER CANGIALOSI

October 7, 2025

Weather

Tropical Storm Jerry Forecast Advisory Number 1

Issued at 1500 UTC TUE OCT 07 2025 000
WTNT25 KNHC 071434
TCMAT5

TROPICAL STORM JERRY FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 1
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL102025
1500 UTC TUE OCT 07 2025

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 11.5N 44.6W AT 07/1500Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 280 DEGREES AT 21 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1006 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 40 KT WITH GUSTS TO 50 KT.
34 KT…….120NE 90SE 0SW 0NW.
4 M SEAS….120NE 0SE 0SW 0NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT…CENTER LOCATED NEAR 11.5N 44.6W AT 07/1500Z
AT 07/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 11.3N 43.8W

FORECAST VALID 08/0000Z 12.3N 47.2W
MAX WIND 45 KT…GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT…120NE 90SE 0SW 60NW.

FORECAST VALID 08/1200Z 13.5N 51.1W
MAX WIND 55 KT…GUSTS 65 KT.
50 KT… 40NE 30SE 0SW 0NW.
34 KT…120NE 100SE 40SW 80NW.

FORECAST VALID 09/0000Z 14.9N 54.6W
MAX WIND 65 KT…GUSTS 80 KT.
64 KT… 20NE 0SE 0SW 0NW.
50 KT… 40NE 40SE 0SW 30NW.
34 KT…120NE 120SE 40SW 90NW.

FORECAST VALID 09/1200Z 16.5N 57.6W
MAX WIND 75 KT…GUSTS 90 KT.
64 KT… 30NE 0SE 0SW 20NW.
50 KT… 50NE 30SE 20SW 40NW.
34 KT…120NE 120SE 40SW 90NW.

FORECAST VALID 10/0000Z 18.1N 60.0W
MAX WIND 80 KT…GUSTS 100 KT.
64 KT… 20NE 20SE 10SW 20NW.
50 KT… 40NE 40SE 20SW 40NW.
34 KT…110NE 110SE 50SW 90NW.

FORECAST VALID 10/1200Z 19.8N 61.9W
MAX WIND 80 KT…GUSTS 100 KT.
64 KT… 30NE 25SE 0SW 20NW.
50 KT… 50NE 50SE 20SW 40NW.
34 KT…130NE 130SE 60SW 100NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE…ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 125 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5…AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 11/1200Z 24.4N 63.4W
MAX WIND 80 KT…GUSTS 100 KT.
50 KT… 60NE 60SE 20SW 40NW.
34 KT…130NE 130SE 60SW 100NW.

OUTLOOK VALID 12/1200Z 29.4N 62.9W
MAX WIND 80 KT…GUSTS 100 KT.
50 KT… 60NE 60SE 40SW 40NW.
34 KT…140NE 140SE 70SW 80NW.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 11.5N 44.6W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 07/2100Z

$$
FORECASTER CANGIALOSI

October 7, 2025

Weather

Tropical Storm Jerry Public Advisory Number 1

Issued at 1100 AM AST Tue Oct 07 2025 000
WTNT35 KNHC 071434
TCPAT5

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Jerry Advisory Number 1
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL102025
1100 AM AST Tue Oct 07 2025

…TROPICAL STORM JERRY FORMS OVER THE TROPICAL CENTRAL ATLANTIC…
…THE TENTH NAMED STORM OF THE SEASON…

SUMMARY OF 1100 AM AST…1500 UTC…INFORMATION
———————————————–
LOCATION…11.5N 44.6W
ABOUT 1315 MI…2120 KM ESE OF THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS…45 MPH…75 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT…W OR 280 DEGREES AT 24 MPH…39 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE…1006 MB…29.71 INCHES

WATCHES AND WARNINGS
——————–
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.

Interests in the northern Leeward Islands should monitor the
progress of Jerry as Tropical Storm Watches could be required
later today or tonight.

DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
———————-
At 1100 AM AST (1500 UTC), the center of the newly formed Tropical
Storm Jerry was located near latitude 11.5 North, longitude 44.6
West. Jerry is moving toward the west near 24 mph (39 km/h). A
decrease in forward speed and a turn to the west-northwest is
expected during the next couple of days. On the forecast track, the
core of the system is expected to be near or to the north of the
northern Leeward Islands late Thursday and Friday.

Maximum sustained winds are near 45 mph (75 km/h) with higher gusts.
Steady strengthening is forecast, and Jerry is expected to become a
hurricane in a day or two.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 140 miles (220 km)
from the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1006 mb (29.71 inches).

HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
———————-
Key messages for Tropical Storm Jerry can be found in the Tropical
Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT5 and WMO header
WTNT45 KNHC.

SURF: Swells generated by Jerry are expected to reach the Leeward
Islands on Thursday. These swells are likely to cause
life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult
products from your local weather office.

A depiction of rip current risk for the United States can be found
at: hurricanes.gov/graphics_at[X].shtml?ripCurrents

NEXT ADVISORY
————-
Next complete advisory at 500 PM AST.

$$
Forecaster Cangialosi

October 7, 2025

Local News

Patricia Williams Dies at 94

With heavy hearts and thankful spirits, the family of Patricia “Pat” Williams announces her peaceful passing on Sept. 10, 2025 at 94 years old. Patricia was a devoted mother, grandmother, aunt, and friend whose love, laughter, and faith touched every life she encountered.

She was preceded in death by her parents John Williams and Violet Civil-Williams, and her siblings Sylvia Rodgers, John “ Pando” Williams, Mae Williams, Mary Williams, Rosalia Thomas and Leander Williams.

She is survived by her children, Linda Sealey-Cipriani, Robert “Rabashi” Sealey, Marsha Sealey and Tiffoni King- Sealey; Her grandchildren, Quiana Cipriani, Jerome and Josette Cipriani, Quinisha “Kimmi” Cipriani, Jonathan Cipriani, Kevin “Lamar” Newell, Kiahna Sealey, Robert “Anthony” Sealey, Jonathon Sealey, Emmet “J” and Gymarie Petersen, D’niqua Guide and Tyesha King; Great-Grandchildren, Laura, Emily and Ava Cipriani, Roland Newell, Avi Sealey, Angel, Jonathan, Emily and E’Marie Petersen, and Tayson King; Sons in Law, Jerome Cipriani Sr., Elvis Liburd and Ted King Sr.; Sister in Law, Lolita Williams; Nieces and Nephews, Norbert “Hut” Rogers, Veronica “Vero” Williams, Joan Hartzog, Brenda Richards, Cheryl Frazer, Heather Nicholson, Burton O’Rielly, Kareem and Farrah Harris; Close relatives, Marilyn Martin, Judge Emile Henderson and Family, Vuriley Harris and family, The Family of the late Asta Martin,Petrie and Juanita Joseph and family, Alvin Milligan and family, Pastor George Knight and Family, Esther Moorehead-Urgent, the Family of the late Severina “Seby” Williams, Palmira Benjamin and Family, Gloria Lambert and family, Lydia Taylor and family, James “Jimmy” Ferguson and family, Zulma and Rafael Van-Putten, The Walker Family, Iris James and family, Daruis George, Wanda Morris and the Messer family, James family, Francis family, and Dolan family. Other family and friends too numerous to mention.

Family and Friends viewing will be held on Friday, Oct. 10 at the James Memorial Funeral Home, between 5:30 p.m.-7:30 p.m.

Funeral service will be held on Saturday, Oct. 11 at the St. Patrick Catholic Church in Frederiksted. The viewing will begin at 9:30 a.m. and Service/Mass starts at 10:30 a.m. Interment will follow at Frederiksted Cemetery.

Professional services entrusted to James Memorial Funeral Home, Inc.

October 7, 2025

Local News

In the Matter of the Estate of Eric Royer, Deceased

IN THE SUPERIOR COURT OF THE VIRGIN ISLANDS
DIVISION OF ST. CROIX
IN THE MATTER OF THE ESTATE OF:

ERIC ROYER, Deceased.
No. SX-2025-PB-00103
NOTICE TO CREDITORS AND DEBTORS
NOTICE is hereby given that a Petition for Intestate Administration and for Letters of Administration pursuant to Chapter Fifteen of Title 15 of the Virgin Islands Code has been filed on behalf of the Estate of Eric Royer, deceased, and all persons having claims against the above Estate are to present them to the Petitioner, verified by Affidavit, and with proper vouchers, within six (6) months, and persons indebted to the Estate to make payment promptly to:
Carissa Bryan, Petitioner
c/o Nicole-Lynn King-Richardson, Esq.
King & King Law, P.C.
5043 Norre Gade, Suite 2
St. Thomas, VI 00802
(340) 776-1014
Attorney for the Estate

Dated: ______________

October 7, 2025