October 2, 2025 - Page 3 of 4 - Virgin Islands News

Weather

Hurricane Imelda Graphics

5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Thu, 02 Oct 2025 08:53:01 GMT

Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Thu, 02 Oct 2025 08:53:01 GMT

October 2, 2025

Weather

Hurricane Imelda Forecast Discussion Number 23

Issued at 500 AM AST Thu Oct 02 2025 000
WTNT44 KNHC 020850
TCDAT4

Hurricane Imelda Discussion Number 23
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL092025
500 AM AST Thu Oct 02 2025

The center of Imelda passed just south of Bermuda a few hours ago,
with sustained hurricane force winds reported at one of the
elevated stations there. Since then, the cyclone has continued to
produce a central convective feature, and radar data from Bermuda
shows fragments of spiral bands to the north of the center.
Overall, it appears that Imelda is continuing through extratropical
transition, but the process is not finished yet. Satellite
intensity estimates have decreased, and based on these the initial
intensity is lowered to a possibly generous 75 kt.

The initial motion remains quickly east-northeastward or 075/26 kt.
This general motion is likely to continue for the next 12-24 h.
After that, the cyclone should phase with a digging mid-latitude
trough that is currently north of the system, with this trough
eventually becoming a deep-layer cut-off low over Imelda’s
low-level center. This evolution should cause the surface center to
move generally northeastward from 24-72 h with a decrease in
forward speed. An east-northeastward motion is expected by the end
of the forecast period as the cyclone gets more embedded in the
mid-latitude flow. The new forecast track is similar to the
previous track through 72 h, and then is slower than and south of
the previous track at 96 and 120 h.

Current trends and global model guidance suggest that Imelda should
complete extratropical transition later today. Phasing with the
above-mentioned mid-latitude trough should help the system maintain
its intensity for the next 3-4 days, and the intensity forecast has
been nudged upward a bit to match a blend of the global model wind
forecasts. After 96 h, the global models forecast the system to
weaken quickly as the surface low separates from the upper-level
center, and this is also reflected in the new intensity forecast.

KEY MESSAGES:

1. Imelda’s core has passed Bermuda, and conditions on the island
are improving. However, tropical storm conditions are expected to
continue for a few more hours.

2. The threat of heavy rainfall on Bermuda has diminished.

3. Swells and high surf from Imelda are expected to produce
dangerous marine conditions and rip currents along much of the East
Coast of the United States and the western Atlantic during the next
several days.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 02/0900Z 32.8N 61.9W 75 KT 85 MPH
12H 02/1800Z 33.5N 57.7W 70 KT 80 MPH…POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
24H 03/0600Z 35.0N 52.9W 65 KT 75 MPH…POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
36H 03/1800Z 37.2N 50.2W 60 KT 70 MPH…POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
48H 04/0600Z 39.8N 48.3W 55 KT 65 MPH…POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
60H 04/1800Z 42.8N 45.7W 55 KT 65 MPH…POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
72H 05/0600Z 45.8N 41.7W 50 KT 60 MPH…POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
96H 06/0600Z 49.2N 32.6W 50 KT 60 MPH…POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
120H 07/0600Z 50.8N 25.8W 40 KT 45 MPH…POST-TROP/EXTRATROP

$$
Forecaster Beven

October 2, 2025

Weather

Hurricane Imelda Wind Speed Probabilities Number 23

Issued at 0900 UTC THU OCT 02 2025 000
FONT14 KNHC 020849
PWSAT4

HURRICANE IMELDA WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 23
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL092025
0900 UTC THU OCT 02 2025

AT 0900Z THE CENTER OF HURRICANE IMELDA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE
32.8 NORTH…LONGITUDE 61.9 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR
75 KTS…85 MPH…140 KM/H.

Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH)
ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)…SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME
EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)…SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME
CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)…SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME

WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS

CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST
…34 KT (39 MPH… 63 KM/H)…
…50 KT (58 MPH… 93 KM/H)…
…64 KT (74 MPH…119 KM/H)…
FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS

PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE
OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING
AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY)
(CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN
06Z THU AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY)

PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT
X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT
PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN
THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT.
PROBABILITIES FOR 34…50…64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY
64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT.

– – – – WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS – – – –

FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM
TIME 06Z THU 18Z THU 06Z FRI 18Z FRI 06Z SAT 06Z SUN 06Z MON
PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO
18Z THU 06Z FRI 18Z FRI 06Z SAT 06Z SUN 06Z MON 06Z TUE

FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120)
– – – – – – – – – – – – – – – – – – – – – – – – – – – – – – – – – –
LOCATION KT

HIBERNIA OILFD 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) X( 4) X( 4)

BERMUDA 34 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99)

$$
FORECASTER BEVEN

October 2, 2025

Weather

Hurricane Imelda Public Advisory Number 23

Issued at 500 AM AST Thu Oct 02 2025 000
WTNT34 KNHC 020849
TCPAT4

BULLETIN
Hurricane Imelda Advisory Number 23
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL092025
500 AM AST Thu Oct 02 2025

…IMELDA IS MOVING QUICKLY AWAY FROM BERMUDA AND IS EXPECTED TO
BECOME EXTRATROPICAL LATER TODAY…

SUMMARY OF 500 AM AST…0900 UTC…INFORMATION
———————————————-
LOCATION…32.8N 61.9W
ABOUT 170 MI…275 KM ENE OF BERMUDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS…85 MPH…140 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT…ENE OR 75 DEGREES AT 30 MPH…48 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE…975 MB…28.80 INCHES

WATCHES AND WARNINGS
——————–
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

The Meteorological Service of Bermuda has changed the Hurricane
Warning for Bermuda to a Tropical Storm Warning.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for…
* Bermuda

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area, in this case during the
next few hours.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.

DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
———————-
At 500 AM AST (0900 UTC), the center of Hurricane Imelda was located
near latitude 32.8 North, longitude 61.9 West. Imelda is moving
toward the east-northeast near 30 mph (48 km/h), and this general
motion is expected to continue through tonight. A northeastward
motion is then forecast on Friday and Saturday. On the forecast
track, the core of Imelda will move farther away from Bermuda
during the next several hours.

Maximum sustained winds are near 85 mph (140 km/h) with higher
gusts. Imelda is expected to become an extratropical low later
today, with gradual weakening forecast for the next several days.

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 45 miles (75 km) from the
center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 255 miles
(405 km). The elevated station at the National Museum of Bermuda
recently reported sustained winds of 56 mph (91 km/h) and a wind
gust of 70 mph (113 km/h).

The estimated minimum central pressure is 975 mb (28.80 inches).

HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
———————-
Key messages for Hurricane Imelda can be found in the Tropical
Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT4 and WMO header
WTNT44 KNHC.

WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected on Bermuda for the
next few hours.

RAINFALL: Lingering showers across Bermuda could produce up to an
inch (25 mm) of additional rainfall through today.

STORM SURGE: Storm surge flooding on Bermuda should subside today.

SURF: Swells generated by Imelda are affecting the Bahamas, Bermuda,
and much of the U.S. East Coast. Swells from Imelda will spread
toward the Greater Antilles and northern Leeward Islands on Friday
and continue through the weekend. These swells are likely to cause
life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult
products from your local weather office.

A depiction of rip current risk for the United States can be found
at: hurricanes.gov/graphics_at4.shtml?ripCurrents

NEXT ADVISORY
————-
Next intermediate advisory at 800 AM AST.
Next complete advisory at 1100 AM AST.

$$
Forecaster Beven

October 2, 2025

Weather

Hurricane Imelda Forecast Advisory Number 23

Issued at 0900 UTC THU OCT 02 2025 894
WTNT24 KNHC 020848
TCMAT4

HURRICANE IMELDA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 23
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL092025
0900 UTC THU OCT 02 2025

HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 32.8N 61.9W AT 02/0900Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE EAST-NORTHEAST OR 75 DEGREES AT 26 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 975 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 75 KT WITH GUSTS TO 90 KT.
64 KT……. 0NE 35SE 40SW 35NW.
50 KT……. 20NE 90SE 70SW 70NW.
34 KT…….120NE 220SE 120SW 170NW.
4 M SEAS….240NE 300SE 360SW 420NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT…CENTER LOCATED NEAR 32.8N 61.9W AT 02/0900Z
AT 02/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 32.5N 63.3W

FORECAST VALID 02/1800Z 33.5N 57.7W…POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND 70 KT…GUSTS 85 KT.
64 KT… 0NE 30SE 40SW 40NW.
50 KT… 45NE 70SE 70SW 70NW.
34 KT…150NE 200SE 160SW 150NW.

FORECAST VALID 03/0600Z 35.0N 52.9W…POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND 65 KT…GUSTS 80 KT.
64 KT… 0NE 0SE 40SW 40NW.
50 KT… 60NE 70SE 80SW 70NW.
34 KT…200NE 200SE 180SW 200NW.

FORECAST VALID 03/1800Z 37.2N 50.2W…POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND 60 KT…GUSTS 75 KT.
50 KT…120NE 80SE 80SW 90NW.
34 KT…250NE 240SE 210SW 250NW.

FORECAST VALID 04/0600Z 39.8N 48.3W…POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND 55 KT…GUSTS 65 KT.
50 KT…100NE 70SE 80SW 110NW.
34 KT…250NE 240SE 230SW 240NW.

FORECAST VALID 04/1800Z 42.8N 45.7W…POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND 55 KT…GUSTS 65 KT.
50 KT… 50NE 70SE 70SW 50NW.
34 KT…200NE 230SE 230SW 200NW.

FORECAST VALID 05/0600Z 45.8N 41.7W…POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND 50 KT…GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT… 0NE 60SE 60SW 60NW.
34 KT…190NE 210SE 210SW 180NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE…ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 125 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5…AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 06/0600Z 49.2N 32.6W…POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND 50 KT…GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT… 0NE 0SE 60SW 60NW.
34 KT…190NE 110SE 150SW 150NW.

OUTLOOK VALID 07/0600Z 50.8N 25.8W…POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND 40 KT…GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT… 0NE 80SE 70SW 70NW.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 32.8N 61.9W

INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY…WTNT34 KNHC/MIATCPAT4…AT 02/1200Z

NEXT ADVISORY AT 02/1500Z

$$
FORECASTER BEVEN

October 2, 2025

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