September 27, 2025 - Page 2 of 4 - Virgin Islands News

Politics

Jeanne Shaheen Wants to Make Foreign Policy Bipartisan Again

The Democrat from New Hampshire has worked to find common ground with the Trump administration on foreign affairs.

September 27, 2025

Weather

Hurricane Humberto Graphics

5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Sat, 27 Sep 2025 08:47:16 GMT

Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Sat, 27 Sep 2025 08:47:16 GMT

September 27, 2025

Weather

Hurricane Humberto Forecast Discussion Number 11

Issued at 500 AM AST Sat Sep 27 2025 000
WTNT43 KNHC 270845
TCDAT3

Hurricane Humberto Discussion Number 11
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL082025
500 AM AST Sat Sep 27 2025

Humberto seems to have paused its meteoric rise for the moment.
The eye has become smaller and more distorted based on GOES
satellite imagery. An AMSR2 microwave pass showed some evidence
that the concentric rings mentioned in the previous discussion have
contracted, indicating an ongoing eyewall replacement cycle. The
microwave images also displayed classic hurricane structure, with
curved banding in all quadrants and no signs of dry air intrusions.
The satellite intensity estimates have leveled off overnight, and
the initial intensity is held at 125 kt, closest to the UW-CIMSS ADT
of T6.3.

While internal dynamics may have interrupted Humberto’s
strengthening, the hurricane still has about a day of conducive
environmental and oceanic conditions to intensify. Some of the
regional hurricane models show slight strengthening, though most of
the model guidance suggests Humberto will hold generally steady for
the next couple of days. By next week, the vertical wind shear is
expected to increase and induce a gradual weakening trend. As
Humberto gains latitude, a significant expansion in the surface wind
field will likely occur while it passes west of Bermuda.
Phase-space analyses of global model forecasts by day 5 show
Humberto as an extratropical cyclone, or close to one. The latest
NHC intensity forecast is very similar to the previous prediction
and lies on the high end of the guidance in the short-term.

The hurricane is moving westward at 5 kt. A subtropical ridge
centered over the western Atlantic should slowly steer Humberto to
the west or west-northwest during the next day or so, then turn the
cyclone to the northwest and north-northwest by early next week. By
day 4, an amplifying upper-level trough moving out of the Canadian
Maritimes is expected to rapidly steer Humberto northeastward. The
NHC track forecast shifted slightly eastward this cycle and is a
little quicker at days 4 and 5. It lies between the Google DeepMind
ensemble mean and the previous prediction.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 27/0900Z 22.3N 59.3W 125 KT 145 MPH
12H 27/1800Z 22.6N 60.5W 135 KT 155 MPH
24H 28/0600Z 23.3N 62.3W 140 KT 160 MPH
36H 28/1800Z 24.4N 64.3W 135 KT 155 MPH
48H 29/0600Z 25.8N 66.0W 130 KT 150 MPH
60H 29/1800Z 27.3N 67.3W 125 KT 145 MPH
72H 30/0600Z 29.1N 68.1W 115 KT 130 MPH
96H 01/0600Z 33.4N 66.5W 100 KT 115 MPH
120H 02/0600Z 37.7N 56.4W 90 KT 105 MPH…POST-TROP/EXTRATROP

$$
Forecaster Bucci

September 27, 2025

Weather

Hurricane Humberto Public Advisory Number 11

Issued at 500 AM AST Sat Sep 27 2025 000
WTNT33 KNHC 270844
TCPAT3

BULLETIN
Hurricane Humberto Advisory Number 11
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL082025
500 AM AST Sat Sep 27 2025

…HUMBERTO EXPECTED TO REMAIN A POWERFUL MAJOR HURRICANE THROUGH
EARLY NEXT WEEK…

SUMMARY OF 500 AM AST…0900 UTC…INFORMATION
———————————————-
LOCATION…22.3N 59.3W
ABOUT 375 MI…605 KM NE OF THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS…145 MPH…230 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT…W OR 275 DEGREES AT 6 MPH…9 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE…938 MB…27.70 INCHES

WATCHES AND WARNINGS
——————–
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.

Interests in Bermuda should monitor the progress of Humberto.

DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
———————-
At 500 AM AST (0900 UTC), the eye of Hurricane Humberto was
located near latitude 22.3 North, longitude 59.3 West. Humberto is
moving toward the west near 6 mph (9 km/h). By early Monday, a
turn toward the northwest at a slightly faster forward speed is
forecast followed by a turn toward the north-northwest by Monday
night.

Maximum sustained winds are near 145 mph (230 km/h) with higher
gusts. Humberto is a category 4 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson
Hurricane Wind Scale. Additional strengthening is forecast through
the weekend.

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 25 miles (35 km) from the
center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 105 miles
(165 km).

The estimated minimum central pressure is 938 mb (27.70 inches).

HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
———————-
SURF: Swells generated by Humberto will begin affecting portions of
the northern Leeward Islands, the Virgin Islands, Puerto Rico, and
Bermuda this weekend and early next week. These swells are likely to
cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please
consult products from your local weather office.

NEXT ADVISORY
————-
Next complete advisory at 1100 AM AST.

$$
Forecaster Bucci

September 27, 2025

Weather

Hurricane Humberto Wind Speed Probabilities Number 11

Issued at 0900 UTC SAT SEP 27 2025 000
FONT13 KNHC 270844
PWSAT3

HURRICANE HUMBERTO WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 11
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL082025
0900 UTC SAT SEP 27 2025

AT 0900Z THE CENTER OF HURRICANE HUMBERTO WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE
22.3 NORTH…LONGITUDE 59.3 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR
125 KTS…145 MPH…230 KM/H.

Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH)
ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)…SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME
EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)…SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME
CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)…SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME

WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS

CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST
…34 KT (39 MPH… 63 KM/H)…
…50 KT (58 MPH… 93 KM/H)…
…64 KT (74 MPH…119 KM/H)…
FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS

PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE
OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING
AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY)
(CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN
06Z SAT AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY)

PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT
X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT
PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN
THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT.
PROBABILITIES FOR 34…50…64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY
64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT.

– – – – WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS – – – –

FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM
TIME 06Z SAT 18Z SAT 06Z SUN 18Z SUN 06Z MON 06Z TUE 06Z WED
PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO
18Z SAT 06Z SUN 18Z SUN 06Z MON 06Z TUE 06Z WED 06Z THU

FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120)
– – – – – – – – – – – – – – – – – – – – – – – – – – – – – – – – – –
LOCATION KT

SABLE ISLAND 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4)

BERMUDA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 12(12) 44(56) 11(67)
BERMUDA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 20(21) 9(30)
BERMUDA 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 10(10) 6(16)

$$
FORECASTER BUCCI

September 27, 2025

Weather

Hurricane Humberto Forecast Advisory Number 11

Issued at 0900 UTC SAT SEP 27 2025 000
WTNT23 KNHC 270844
TCMAT3

HURRICANE HUMBERTO FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 11
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL082025
0900 UTC SAT SEP 27 2025

HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 22.3N 59.3W AT 27/0900Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 275 DEGREES AT 5 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 938 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 125 KT WITH GUSTS TO 150 KT.
64 KT……. 20NE 10SE 10SW 20NW.
50 KT……. 40NE 30SE 25SW 40NW.
34 KT……. 90NE 60SE 50SW 80NW.
4 M SEAS….150NE 120SE 105SW 120NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT…CENTER LOCATED NEAR 22.3N 59.3W AT 27/0900Z
AT 27/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 22.2N 58.9W

FORECAST VALID 27/1800Z 22.6N 60.5W
MAX WIND 135 KT…GUSTS 165 KT.
64 KT… 25NE 20SE 20SW 30NW.
50 KT… 50NE 40SE 30SW 40NW.
34 KT…110NE 80SE 60SW 90NW.

FORECAST VALID 28/0600Z 23.3N 62.3W
MAX WIND 140 KT…GUSTS 170 KT.
64 KT… 30NE 25SE 20SW 30NW.
50 KT… 60NE 50SE 40SW 40NW.
34 KT…120NE 90SE 70SW 90NW.

FORECAST VALID 28/1800Z 24.4N 64.3W
MAX WIND 135 KT…GUSTS 165 KT.
64 KT… 35NE 30SE 25SW 30NW.
50 KT… 60NE 50SE 40SW 50NW.
34 KT…120NE 90SE 70SW 100NW.

FORECAST VALID 29/0600Z 25.8N 66.0W
MAX WIND 130 KT…GUSTS 160 KT.
64 KT… 40NE 30SE 30SW 35NW.
50 KT… 70NE 60SE 50SW 50NW.
34 KT…120NE 100SE 70SW 100NW.

FORECAST VALID 29/1800Z 27.3N 67.3W
MAX WIND 125 KT…GUSTS 150 KT.
64 KT… 40NE 40SE 30SW 40NW.
50 KT… 70NE 60SE 50SW 60NW.
34 KT…120NE 110SE 80SW 110NW.

FORECAST VALID 30/0600Z 29.1N 68.1W
MAX WIND 115 KT…GUSTS 140 KT.
64 KT… 50NE 40SE 30SW 40NW.
50 KT… 80NE 70SE 50SW 60NW.
34 KT…130NE 130SE 90SW 120NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE…ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 125 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5…AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 01/0600Z 33.4N 66.5W
MAX WIND 100 KT…GUSTS 120 KT.
50 KT… 80NE 80SE 60SW 60NW.
34 KT…170NE 150SE 110SW 130NW.

OUTLOOK VALID 02/0600Z 37.7N 56.4W…POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND 90 KT…GUSTS 110 KT.
50 KT…100NE 120SE 110SW 80NW.
34 KT…230NE 220SE 170SW 210NW.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 22.3N 59.3W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 27/1500Z

$$
FORECASTER BUCCI

September 27, 2025

Weather

Potential Tropical Cyclone Nine Public Advisory Number 3

Issued at 500 AM EDT Sat Sep 27 2025 000
WTNT34 KNHC 270842
TCPAT4

BULLETIN
Potential Tropical Cyclone Nine Advisory Number 3
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL092025
500 AM EDT Sat Sep 27 2025

…DISTURBANCE HAS BECOME A LITTLE BETTER ORGANIZED…
…EXPECTED TO BECOME A TROPICAL STORM AND PRODUCE SIGNIFICANT
RAINFALL OVER PORTIONS OF EASTERN CUBA AND THE BAHAMAS…

SUMMARY OF 500 AM EDT…0900 UTC…INFORMATION
———————————————-
LOCATION…21.9N 75.8W
ABOUT 155 MI…250 KM NW OF THE EASTERN TIP OF CUBA
ABOUT 115 MI…190 KM S OF THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS…35 MPH…55 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT…NW OR 315 DEGREES AT 7 MPH…11 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE…1007 MB…29.74 INCHES

WATCHES AND WARNINGS
——————–
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

The Meteorological Service of the Bahamas has issued a Tropical
Storm Warning for portions of the northwestern Bahamas, including
Eleuthera, New Providence, the Abacos, Berry Islands, Andros
Island, and Grand Bahama Island.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for…
* Central Bahamas, including Cat Island, the Exumas, Long Island,
Rum Cay, and San Salvador
* Portions of the northwestern Bahamas, including Eleuthera, New
Providence, the Abacos, Berry Islands, Andros island, and Grand
Bahama Island

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area, within 36 hours.

Interests elsewhere in the Bahamas and along the southeast coast of
the United States from Florida to North Carolina should monitor the
progress of this system.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.

DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
———————-
At 500 AM EDT (0900 UTC), the disturbance was centered near latitude
21.9 North, longitude 75.8 West. The system is moving toward the
northwest near 7 mph (11 km/h). A north-northwestward motion is
expected to begin later today and continue through Monday. On the
forecast track, the center of the system is expected to move across
the central and northwestern Bahamas this weekend and approach the
southeast U.S. coast early next week.

Maximum sustained winds are near 35 mph (55 km/h) with higher gusts.
The system is expected to become a tropical depression by
tonight. Gradual strengthening is forecast thereafter, with the
system becoming a tropical storm by early Sunday, and a hurricane
by late Monday.
* Formation chance through 48 hours…high…90 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days…high…90 percent.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1007 mb (29.74 inches).

HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
———————-
Key messages for Potential Tropical Cyclone Nine can be found in
the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT4 and
WMO header WTNT44 KNHC.

WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected in the central Bahamas
beginning tonight or early Sunday and are possible in portions of
the northwestern Bahamas on Sunday.

RAINFALL: The disturbance is expected to produce 8 to 12 inches,
with isolated maximum totals of 16 inches possible to eastern Cuba
and 4 to 8 inches of rain to the Bahamas. This rainfall will likely
produce flash and urban flooding. Mudslides are also possible in
areas of higher terrain across eastern Cuba, Hispaniola, and
Jamaica.

Moisture from the disturbance is leading to a threat of heavy
rainfall from this system well to the north across portions of the
Southeast and Virginia into early next week which could cause flash,
urban, and river flooding.

For a complete depiction of forecast rainfall and flash flooding
associated with Potential Tropical Cyclone Nine, please see the
National Weather Service Storm Total Rainfall Graphic, available at
hurricanes.gov/graphics_at4.shtml?rainqpf.

STORM SURGE: A storm surge will raise water levels by as much as 1
to 3 feet above ground level along the immediate coast in areas of
onshore winds in the northwestern Bahamas. Near the coast, the
surge will be accompanied by large waves.

SURF: Swells generated by both this system and Hurricane Humberto
will affect portions of the Bahamas this weekend, and spread to
portions of the southeast U.S. coast early next week. These swells
are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current
conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office.

A depiction of rip current risk for the United States can be found
at: hurricanes.gov/graphics_at4.shtml?ripCurrents

NEXT ADVISORY
————-
Next intermediate advisory at 800 AM EDT.
Next complete advisory at 1100 AM EDT.

$$
Forecaster Beven

September 27, 2025

Weather

Potential Tropical Cyclone Nine Forecast Advisory Number 3

Issued at 0900 UTC SAT SEP 27 2025 000
WTNT24 KNHC 270842
TCMAT4

POTENTIAL TROPICAL CYCLONE NINE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 3
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL092025
0900 UTC SAT SEP 27 2025

POTENTIAL TROP CYCLONE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 21.9N 75.8W AT 27/0900Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 45 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 315 DEGREES AT 6 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1007 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT…CENTER LOCATED NEAR 21.9N 75.8W AT 27/0900Z
AT 27/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 21.6N 75.6W

FORECAST VALID 27/1800Z 22.5N 76.4W…POTENTIAL TROP CYCLONE
MAX WIND 30 KT…GUSTS 40 KT.

FORECAST VALID 28/0600Z 23.8N 77.0W…TROPICAL STORM
MAX WIND 35 KT…GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT… 70NE 70SE 0SW 50NW.

FORECAST VALID 28/1800Z 25.3N 77.5W
MAX WIND 40 KT…GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT… 80NE 80SE 40SW 70NW.

FORECAST VALID 29/0600Z 27.0N 77.9W
MAX WIND 50 KT…GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT… 40NE 0SE 0SW 0NW.
34 KT…110NE 90SE 60SW 90NW.

FORECAST VALID 29/1800Z 28.8N 78.5W
MAX WIND 60 KT…GUSTS 75 KT.
50 KT… 40NE 30SE 30SW 30NW.
34 KT…120NE 100SE 80SW 110NW.

FORECAST VALID 30/0600Z 30.2N 78.8W
MAX WIND 65 KT…GUSTS 80 KT.
64 KT… 20NE 15SE 0SW 0NW.
50 KT… 50NE 40SE 30SW 50NW.
34 KT…130NE 100SE 90SW 120NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE…ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 125 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5…AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 01/0600Z 31.5N 78.7W
MAX WIND 65 KT…GUSTS 80 KT.
50 KT… 50NE 40SE 40SW 50NW.
34 KT…140NE 90SE 90SW 90NW.

OUTLOOK VALID 02/0600Z 31.5N 77.8W
MAX WIND 55 KT…GUSTS 65 KT.
50 KT… 50NE 50SE 50SW 50NW.
34 KT…150NE 90SE 90SW 90NW.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 21.9N 75.8W

INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY…WTNT34 KNHC/MIATCPAT4…AT 27/1200Z

NEXT ADVISORY AT 27/1500Z

$$
FORECASTER BEVEN

September 27, 2025

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