133 ABNT20 KNHC 230540TWOAT Tropical Weather OutlookNWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL200 AM EDT Tue Sep 23 2025For the North Atlantic…Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of America:Active Systems:The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Hurricane Gabrielle, located over the central subtropical Atlantic.Central and Western Tropical Atlantic:Shower and thunderstorm activity associated with a tropical wave located about 1000 miles east of the Lesser Antilles is showing signs of organization. Environmental conditions are forecast to become more favorable for development later today or tonight, and a tropical depression is likely to form on Thursday or Friday while the system moves west-northwestward to northwestward across the western tropical Atlantic.* Formation chance through 48 hours…low…30 percent.* Formation chance through 7 days…high…80 percent.East of the Leeward Islands:A tropical wave located about 100 miles east of the Leeward Islands is producing concentrated, but disorganized, showers and thunderstorms. Environmental conditions appear marginally conducive for some development over the next few days as the wave moves westward to west-northwestward at 15 to 20 mph. By the latter part of this week, the system is expected to slow down and turn northwestward, and a tropical depression could form late this week when the system is over the southwestern Atlantic Ocean or near the Bahamas. Regardless of development, gusty winds and heavy rainfall are expected to affect portions of the Leeward Islands late tonight and Tuesday, and Puerto Rico and the Virgin Islands late Tuesday and Wednesday.* Formation chance through 48 hours…low…10 percent.* Formation chance through 7 days…medium…50 percent.$$Forecaster Beven
