The National Hurricane Center is tracking three tropical systems in the Atlantic, including Hurricane Gabrielle near Bermuda and two tropical waves closer to the Caribbean. The National Weather Service in San Juan warns that the disturbances could bring increased showers to the U.S. Virgin Islands and Puerto Rico in the coming days.
Gabrielle and Additional Tropical Waves Monitored by NHC
As of a 5 p.m. update from the NHC Sunday, Gabrielle had strengthened into a hurricane located about 320 miles southeast of Bermuda, with maximum sustained winds near 75 mph. Hurricane Gabrielle is the seventh named storm of the Atlantic season and the second to reach hurricane strength following Hurricane Erin in August. Gabrielle is forecast to pass east of Bermuda on Monday.
“At 5:00 p.m. AST, the center of Hurricane Gabrielle was located by NOAA hurricane hunter aircraft near latitude 28.5 North, longitude 61.7 West. Gabrielle is now moving toward the north-northwest near 10 mph,” the NHC said. “A turn more northward is forecast on Monday, followed by a somewhat faster northeastward or east-northeastward motion on Tuesday. On the forecast track, the center of Gabrielle is expected to pass east of Bermuda on Monday evening,” according to the NHC report.
In addition to monitoring Hurricane Gabrielle, the NHC is tracking two tropical waves in the Atlantic Ocean, both of which could enhance rainfall and thunderstorms across the Virgin Islands and Puerto Rico.
Disturbance #1, located in the central Atlantic, has been monitored by the NHC for several days. The system carries a low chance of development within 48 hours and a medium chance of intensification over the next week, with the potential to strengthen into a tropical depression. As of Sunday, forecast models suggest it should pass northeast of the islands, though moisture associated with the wave could still bring increased precipitation.
Disturbance #2, flagged by the NHC Sunday afternoon and located closer to the islands, also carries a low chance of development over the next 48 hours and the next seven days. The system is expected to pass across the Leeward Islands before Disturbance #1 and could bring rainfall and gusty winds to the Virgin Islands and Puerto Rico during the early to middle part of this week.
“A tropical wave located more than 500 miles east of the Lesser Antilles is producing scattered disorganized showers and thunderstorms,” the NHC said on Sunday evening. “Environmental conditions appear marginally conducive for slow development over the next several days as the wave moves quickly westward to west-northwestward at 15 to 20 mph. Regardless of development, gusty winds and showers are expected for portions of the Leeward Islands Monday night and Tuesday.”
Local National Weather Service Update
The National Weather Service in San Juan, Puerto Rico, has warned that the U.S. Virgin Islands and Puerto Rico will face an increased risk of rainfall, thunderstorms, and localized flooding throughout the week due to the two tropical waves being monitored by the NHC.
On Sunday afternoon, the Source contacted Glorianne M. Rivera-Santiago, a meteorologist at the NWS, for further details regarding the local forecast.
Rivera-Santiago explained that as Disturbance #2 moves across the islands by Monday or Tuesday, at least two to three inches of rainfall are expected, accompanied by gusty winds and the potential for localized flooding. She noted that more details will become available as the system nears, adding that it could intensify further once it passes the U.S. Virgin Islands and Puerto Rico.
“On Tuesday, a strong tropical wave, located near 50W longitude, will bring an increase in shower and thunderstorm activity across the region. This tropical wave currently has a low chance of development into a tropical system. However, squally weather and periods of heavy rainfall will increase with the wave passage,” the NWS warned.
After Disturbance #2, the other tropical wave being watched by the NHC, Disturbance #1, will continue to bring inclement weather to the region through the week.
“Given the prevailing wet pattern on previous days and the already saturated soils, the main threats include flash flooding, rapid river rises, and landslides in vulnerable terrain,” the NWS said.
Rivera-Santiago noted that Saharan dust will be prevalent in the atmosphere on Monday, causing a hazy sky. She also reminded residents across both U.S. territories that a risk of hot temperatures will persist through the week, and heat alerts may be issued across the region.
Finally, beachgoers are urged to exercise caution due to a fading northeasterly swell and a moderate risk of rip currents, especially across north- and eastern-facing coastlines.
Weather Updates
It is crucial to remember that the forecast can change very quickly. USVI residents and visitors are encouraged to continue to remain prepared. Weather information is available from the NWS, the NHC, and NOAA.
The local weather forecast for the U.S. Virgin Islands is regularly updated on the Source Weather Page and VI Source YouTube Channel.
Additionally, a weekly Tropical Outlook article from the Source is also published throughout hurricane season to provide in-depth updates. Residents and visitors can find more weather information from the Virgin Islands Territorial Emergency Management Agency.
