The National Hurricane Center is tracking Tropical Storm Gabrielle in the Central Atlantic, a second wave in the Eastern Atlantic with low chances of development, and a third wave expected to move off Africa by Friday, also with low development odds.
National Hurricane Center Update
The NHC expects Gabrielle to eventually intensify into a hurricane and track well to the northeast of the U.S. Virgin Islands and Puerto Rico.
Information provided during a 5 p.m. update from the NHC explained that Gabrielle was located approximately 990 miles east of the northern Leeward Islands, moving toward the northwest at approximately 14 mph and packing maximum sustained winds of approximately 50 mph.
“At 5:00 p.m. AST, the center of Tropical Storm Gabrielle was located near latitude 19.4 North, longitude 48.0 West. Gabrielle is moving toward the northwest near 14 mph, and a northwest or west-northwest motion is expected to continue over the next few days,” the NHC said.
The NHC is also monitoring two other tropical disturbances.
As of Wednesday afternoon, “Disturbance #1,” a tropical wave in the eastern Atlantic off the coast of Africa, carried a low chance of development over both the next 48 hours and the next seven days while moving westward at 15 to 20 mph.
Additionally, the NHC has flagged “Disturbance #2,” a tropical wave expected to move off the west coast of Africa by Friday morning. The system will have a low chance of development over the next seven days as it tracks west-northwest across the eastern Atlantic this weekend into early next week.
While dry air, Saharan dust, and wind shear have been persistently helping to prevent the development of cyclones across the Atlantic recently, forecasters believe that conditions will become more conducive for cyclogenesis to occur across portions of the Atlantic basin.
Hurricane Expert Insight
The Source connected with Alex DaSilva, AccuWeather’s lead hurricane expert, to learn more about potential tropical weather threats in the coming days.
“Regarding Tropical Storm Gabrielle, the good news is that it looks like it’s going to move north of the islands,” DaSilva said. “I don’t think there are going to be any direct impacts on the U.S. Virgin Islands or Puerto Rico from this storm, and pretty much all of the computer forecast guidance suggests that this should head to the north of the islands.”
DaSilva noted, however, that at the very least, choppy seas could occur across the local region if the system indeed stays north of the islands.
“There could be some rough waves and rip currents, maybe toward the end of the weekend, but that might be the extent of the impacts across the USVI and Puerto Rico,” he explained.
DaSilva told the Source that the system could intensify into a hurricane once it passes the USVI after the disturbance moves through strong wind shear and dry air. DaSilva also said that the storm is not expected to make landfall across the United States mainland, though it could come close to Bermuda and that the track of the cyclone will be watched closely.
“I think this system could intensify into a hurricane north of the islands,” DaSilva predicted. “As of Tuesday afternoon, there was a lot of wind shear and dry air, so any development over the next couple of days should be gradual. But as you go into the weekend north of the islands, the storm could potentially become a hurricane.”
Additional Tropical Waves Behind Gabrielle
DaSilva stated that Disturbance #1 could potentially travel closer to the Caribbean region. He explained that the trajectory of the second tropical wave will be greatly influenced by what ultimately occurs with Tropical Storm Gabrielle.
“A lot of what happens with this next wave depends on what Gabrielle does. If Gabrielle gets stronger and ‘punches a hole’ in the western side of the Bermuda High, then this next wave could follow it out to sea,” DaSilva described. “However, if Gabrielle stays weaker, that high-pressure system could remain stronger, and the next wave might come farther west. That’s why I’m still concerned about the Caribbean with this next wave,” he said.
“As of right now, it does not look like Disturbance #1 will move through an environment that supports rapid intensification, which is good news, but it’s definitely something we need to keep watching. And if it does make its way toward the Caribbean, the earliest time frame would probably be early to the middle of next week,” DaSilva added.
Regarding Disturbance #2, DaSilva provided the following information:
“There’s going to be yet another tropical wave that’s going to be rolling off Africa here in the next day or so. Early indications are that it should go out to sea, but again, the wave hasn’t even gotten off Africa yet. So, it’s way too early to say if the next tropical wave, following the one that just came off of Africa, will have any impact. But overall, it looks like the Atlantic is really waking up here and should continue to do so over the next couple of weeks. I expect more tropical waves to come off Africa here over the next couple of weeks and have a pretty decent shot of developing into named storms,” DaSilva said.
A Mid-Season Lull Comes to an End
While the Atlantic basin is now becoming busier with tropical activity, a midseason lull has been ongoing for quite some time.
In a recent article, AccuWeather reported that there had not been a period within the previous three decades when there was a similar type of “lull” across the Atlantic during the climatological peak of the hurricane season without a named cyclone.
“The Atlantic has not experienced such a lack of named storms during the peak of hurricane season since 1992, the year Hurricane Andrew made landfall in South Florida,” AccuWeather said.
Notably, a recent story in the Miami Herald provided information from weather experts who have begun to examine the reasons why the last few years have experienced a midseason lull. The story noted the possibility of climate change being a factor as global temperatures continue to rise. Still, much more research is needed before determining an exact explanation for fewer storms.
“Generally, published science has suggested that in a warmer world, there would actually be fewer hurricanes in the Atlantic every year — but the few storms that do form would be more likely to be powerful, rapidly intensifying beasts,” according to the Miami Herald story.
“The peak season lull is particularly intriguing to researchers, however, because it happens to coincide with hot ocean temperatures that typically fuel hurricane development and are forecast to continue rising as the global climate warms.”
The article continued, “An emerging theory — and it should be stressed that it remains only scientific speculation at this point — is that the air high above the Atlantic hurricane breeding waters is also warming, narrowing the temperature gap between sea and air and creating what meteorologists call atmospheric ‘stability.’
“It’s instability — the clash between hot ocean and cooler air high aloft – that really helps get a tropical system churning.”
The Second Half of Hurricane Season Could Be Busy
Due to the lull in tropical activity so far this year, DaSilva acknowledged that AccuWeather forecasters had slightly adjusted their expected numbers of cyclones across the Atlantic basin for this year’s season.
“We have lowered our numbers of anticipated cyclones from 13 to 18 named storms to 13 to 16, and from seven to 10 hurricanes to six to nine hurricanes,” he said. “But importantly, we did not lower our U.S. impact numbers. We’re still forecasting three to six direct impacts on the United States this season.
“So far, we’ve had two storms impact the U.S.: Tropical Storm Chantal, which made landfall in South Carolina, and Hurricane Erin. Erin was large enough that it produced direct impacts even without a U.S. landfall. That leaves the possibility of another one to four direct impacts this year,” DaSilva noted.
“The Gulf waters are exceptionally warm, and that’s the concern. If we do get development there later this season, there is the potential for rapid intensification,” he warned.
DaSilva explained that there could indeed still be a busy second half of the season. The current phase of the El Niño Southern Oscillation may help to create conditions that are favorable for cyclonic development. ENSO, which encompasses El Niño, La Nina and a neutral phase, can influence atmospheric conditions in ways that either enhance or inhibit cyclone formation.
“The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration recently issued a ‘La Nina Watch’ for later this fall, and this is something we’ve been talking about at AccuWeather since March,” DaSilva said. “In order for a La Niña to be declared, you need several months of conditions, but even without the official designation, the atmosphere can behave like La Nina. That’s been our concern all along.”
“In 2024, we had La Nina develop in the fall, and we saw an explosion of storms in the back half of the season,” DaSilva stated. “I am concerned again this year that we could see a flurry of storms over the next couple of months as La Niña-like conditions take hold, likely starting late September into October.”
DaSilva also provided comments about additional environmental conditions that could possibly aid in tropical cyclogenesis, such as the Madden-Julian Oscillation. The National Weather Service defines the MJO as “an eastward-moving disturbance of clouds, rainfall, winds and pressure that traverses the planet in the tropics and returns to its initial starting point in 30 to 60 days on average.”
“The MJO has been weak this year, and it has struggled to make it into the Atlantic,” DaSilva noted. “It may still have some influence by the end of the month, allowing a couple of these tropical waves to get going, but overall, it has not been a major factor this season.
“I think it’s important that people really start to pay attention to the tropics, and we don’t want individuals to tune out just because the middle of the season has been so quiet,” DaSilva added.
NOAA Global Tropics Hazards Outlook
According to a Global Tropics Hazards Outlook released Tuesday, there will continue to be an elevated chance of cyclonic development across portions of the Atlantic basin in the coming weeks. The forecast tool, which is issued every Tuesday by NOAA’s Climate Prediction Center, provides insight into potential activity across tropical basins up to three weeks in advance.
In its latest update, NOAA said that areas across a portion of the Main Development Region of the Atlantic basin — the zone between the west coast of Africa and the Caribbean — may experience a 20-40% chance of tropical development during the “Week Two” outlook period, which runs from Sept. 24 until Sept. 30.
A 20-40% chance of development is also forecast across the Main Development Region in the “Week Three” outlook, running from Oct. 1 through Oct. 7.
Areas across the western Caribbean Sea and the Gulf are likely to see an elevated chance of cyclones. Additionally, the Eastern Pacific basin, which remains active, is also expected to experience an increased risk for cyclonic development in the coming weeks.
Local Weather Information and Staying Informed
Finally, the National Weather Service in San Juan, Puerto Rico, has reminded residents and visitors of ongoing weather-related threats for Puerto Rico and the USVI. Very warm temperatures could prompt heat alerts across the region, while scattered showers and thunderstorms are also expected.
Additionally, depending on the track of Tropical Storm Gabrielle, marine conditions could become hazardous, and there may be an elevated risk of rip currents across local beaches.
The forecast can change very quickly, and USVI residents and visitors are encouraged to continue to remain prepared. Weather information is available from the NWS, the NHC, and NOAA.
The local weather forecast for the U.S. Virgin Islands is also regularly updated on the Source Weather Page and VI Source YouTube Channel. Additionally, A weekly Tropical Outlook article from the Source will be published throughout hurricane season to provide in-depth updates.
Residents and visitors can find additional weather alerts and preparedness information from the Virgin Islands Territorial Emergency Management Agency.
