Tropical Storm Erick formed Tuesday in the Eastern Pacific and is forecast to intensify before approaching southern Mexico later this week. A hurricane warning is in effect for portions of Mexico, with flooding risks, mudslides, and storm surge. The Atlantic basin remains quiet for now.
According to information from the National Hurricane Center, as of 4 p.m. Atlantic Standard Time on Tuesday, Tropical Storm Erick was located near southern Mexico, packing maximum sustained winds of 50 mph and is predicted to become a hurricane soon. The system is churning over the warm waters of the Pacific Ocean and is moving through an area with favorable environmental conditions for further development.
“Erick is expected to strengthen significantly before reaching the coast of southern Mexico, where a Hurricane Warning is in effect,” according to the NHC update.
“Erick will likely produce heavy rainfall across portions of Central America and southern Mexico through this week. Life-threatening flooding and mudslides are possible, especially in areas of steep terrain, and a storm surge could produce coastal flooding near where the center crosses the coast,” the NHC warned.
Erick, the fifth named storm of the active 2025 Eastern Pacific hurricane season, is forecast to make landfall along the southern coast of Mexico near Oaxaca Wednesday or Thursday. Residents and travelers in the region are urged to closely monitor updates from the NHC and prepare for possible weather-related disruptions.
The Source contacted Carlos Anselmi, a lead meteorologist at the National Weather Service in San Juan, Puerto Rico, for information about why the Eastern Pacific has been active.
“The Eastern Pacific’s early-season tropical activity has been supported by warm sea surface temperatures that are well above average and reduced vertical wind shear, allowing storms to organize,” Anselmi said.
Anselmi also explained that atmospheric conditions known as the Madden-Julian Oscillation and Kelvin waves contribute to storm development. He also noted that the current neutral phase of the El Niño Southern Oscillation can also aid in the early development of storms in the Pacific.
Atlantic Basin Remains Quiet
While the Eastern Pacific has had an active season thus far, the Atlantic basin has remained relatively quiet. Anselmi said that this pattern is typical for June.
“Climatologically speaking, the start of the season is behaving as expected,” Anselmi stated. “Based on long-term historical data from the NHC in June, the development tends to occur closer to the United States, in the Caribbean, and in the Gulf, with fewer systems forming off the African coast. By July, the formation zone shifts eastward, with more origin points near the Lesser Antilles and eastern Main Development Region,” he continued.
Still, Anselmi acknowledged that several factors are contributing to the lack of cyclonic development across the Atlantic basin.
“Several factors are currently suppressing tropical cyclone formation,” Anselmi explained. “These include a dominant Saharan Air Layer injecting dry air and dust into the Main Development Region; strong trade winds and upper-level subsidence associated with high pressure, which are limiting convection, and a lack of robust easterly waves carrying sufficient moisture to support development.”
According to the NHC, no cyclonic development is expected across the Atlantic or Caribbean over the next seven days. However, a forecast released by the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration’s Climate Prediction Center on Tuesday explained that cyclonic development could potentially occur across the Western Caribbean or the Gulf later in June or early July.
Looking Ahead
For the next several days, the main weather-related threats that the USVI and Puerto Rico face include the continuation of gusty easterly winds, an elevated level of Saharan dust in the atmosphere, warm temperatures, and the possibility of showers and thunderstorms.
Additionally, the National Weather Service has noted that a tropical wave will move through the Caribbean at the end of this week, possibly increasing the chance of precipitation. However, the NWS said that most of the moisture associated with the wave is expected to remain south of the local islands.
“A weak tropical wave will move near the islands by Thursday, increasing the frequency of showers and a few isolated thunderstorms, mainly across the local waters,” Anselmi said. “We generally expect limited rainfall, accompanied by brief trade wind showers during the night and early mornings, primarily over windward slopes.”
Anselmi also reminded residents and visitors to be mindful of the possibility of choppy seas and dangerous rip currents over the coming days.
“Mariners can expect choppy seas due to fresh to locally strong easterly winds, and beachgoers face a moderate risk of rip currents throughout much of the week,” Anselmi cautioned.
Stay Informed About Weather Events
The Atlantic Hurricane Season, which began on June 1, lasts until Nov. 30, with the climatological peak of the season occurring in mid-September. USVI residents and visitors are encouraged to be prepared.
In addition to obtaining weather information from the NWS and NOAA, the local weather forecast for the U.S. Virgin Islands is regularly updated on the Source Weather Page and VI Source YouTube Channel. Individuals can also find helpful weather information and alerts from the Virgin Islands Territorial Emergency Management Agency.
